CHINA'S DEBT TIME BOMB and The FUTURE

[skyreach]

 

China has been lending to developing countries already in heavy debt, who are already distressed. They lend for infrastructure projects, to control these countries and for strategic purposes by making secretive agreements. They also have a heavy penalty charges for defaults.

The problem for these countries is that china charges higher interest charges than the IMF / World Bank rates. That entraps these countries in an even worse case than with the IMF.

China has lent between $1 to 1.5 trillion to developing countries, probably making it the biggest debt collector. On top of that its own country's debt is huge, Its building constructions companies debts very heavy too

Like western countries. it is at highest ever debts. Hence the financial structural integrity is at fracture levels. Lots of leaks and possible debt implosion levels. Most countries like China continue to print extra heavy load of money, do internal juggling of debt structures.

France is having to use tax-free savings accounts to fund future defence spending.

Too much debts, heavy charges, poor micro-economic factors for majority of businesses, increasing bankruptcies, and major debt restructuring taking place.

Major questions are:

So, how long can they try to defy the financial debt-gravity black hole?

What will trip it, over finally?

HOW LONG CAN THIS CARRY ON BEFORE IT IS OVER-STRESSED?

WHAT HAPPENS IF DEFAULT OCCUR by a developing country?

What knock-effects can take place, around the world?

One thing is sure. The people of China may be in for a hard time. What will happen to China has happened to other countries over the last century alone. Currently, the West has similar problems too, China is not alone.

No one has learned the lessons of the past for their own vested interests. The FED will not be able to control or manage the outcomes, as in past history they could not handle it. There will will be plenty of finger pointing of the “reasons why” the turbulence or a crash.

How long will the eye of the storm last?

THE END OUTCOME? People and businesses will pay a very heavy price, and taxpayers will become trapped under very heavy taxes, by direct and indirect ones. New challenges lie ahead.

There is another major event on the horizon in the making too.

How will that be related to events of the world?

This has been many years in the making, FED-led, with laws formulated into law and pushed onto the world's countries into taking out new digital currencies. Fully digital, run by government and can be manipulated by the respective government, while it is controlled by the central banks. Bankers forwarded this plan-set-up as it suites their control and dominance in how they can get their loans, failures, high risk taking etc.. from closing any mega big banks.

Even the famous Jim Richards has dire warnings about the uses of the new currencies. Unless laws are placed to safe-guard individual's rights and freedom to use their own money the way they want, and no extra tax burden to depositors or charges by banks with negative rates, or account charges , etc...... It has already happened in some places. This should not be used as a “solution” to reduce government debts.

The digital currency will be a new currency. It will replace the paper fiat money based (i.e. paper currency without any backing of the gold standard). No gold standard means volatility in currency and banking (as before). It means loss of purchasing power as we have had with fiat money, as ever.

The key facts will be that no one can take money out of any bank if a bank goes bankrupt, (digital currency)! And digital transfers can be stopped. Banks can save themselves via the depositors money as the laws have been passed quietly sometime ago.'. It takes a lot of time to plan, and put into the laws. So, they know that when a serve recession hits the country big banks at least will be shielded from a total loss. This is the vested interest of the big banks.

How can it take place? One possible way could be similar to the 2012-13 Cyprus tax , or by negative rates or, in other ways. And the enforcement by governments to force us to use our hard earned cash-in-the-banks or get penalised in some way.

How could it happen? By a bank defaulting or, because of the highest ever government debts the banks would want their money back without defaults taking place. Many smaller banks will fall, as others have done in past recessions. So, you have few and fewer independent banks in existence, i.e. less competition. And, all people and organisations of the world will become easy to monitor fully, financially.

A financial police state monopoly for the government to control our financial lives according to Jim Richards. This is part of the Big Government policy implementation. President Biden has re-stated the big government social plans in the USA. This has often repeated after many recession had began (initial phase). Others countries tend to follow suite. That means overheads increase, deficits and debts increase and taxes (direct and indirect ones particularly). This is the vested interest of Big Government ideologists and its supporters.

The question is: What justifications will they use to justify in implementing the digital currency, for the public consumption? One reason could be that it is cheaper for banks!!!!!

So, in investing or Day trading be weary of believing the PR expressed via the media.

Use key micro-economic factors and investing techniques. The alternate is to use charting methods, but you do have to learn it well for good applications. Even after that, you need to plan trades and understand your psychological profile.

Random trading or understanding trading methods poorly can make you more wrong than right. The markets are an unforgiving environment. You have to respect the way the markets operate as they do have their way. Remember, that the markets and Wall St. are total pros who have worked out how all investors behave over decades and decades of experience built into their computers systems.

[skyreach]

@THT article in the "Time Cycles" has proven to be correct on the cycles indicating wars could begin. We have witnessed another one in 2023 now! So take the hint from THT that Cycles have a big role in all areas of life. Psychology plays a major part with cyclical behaviour, since we humans have habits, moods, and attitudes that shape outcomes. Socionomics Cyclic studies also has a great tract record of indicating the general mood phases.

China;s Evergrande, property sector, is down 99%.

The US economists still chant it will have little effect on the US!!!!!!!!! Complacency continues with economists, and the investors. 

But what if, as in the initial phase of every past recessions, the US Housing Price Indexes drops lower? Interest rates huge rise is a precursor.

The US FED is still intent on getting the economy into a recession in order to bring their high rates down to 2% range. The big irony is that the FED encouraged the rates rise which followed after a great deal of time lag, from the massive increase in the QE program of the recent past. That plus the artificially ultra low rates for a long time encouraged a bubble economy in all areas and excessive debts build up.

Can you estimate or analyse and evaluate the outcome from all this?

 

 

[THT]

On 10/11/2023 at 17:39, skyreach said:

@THT article in the "Time Cycles" has proven to be correct on the cycles indicating wars could begin. We have witnessed another one in 2023 now! So take the hint from THT that Cycles have a big role in all areas of life. Psychology plays a major part with cyclical behaviour, since we humans have habits, moods, and attitudes that shape outcomes. Socionomics Cyclic studies also has a great tract record of indicating the general mood phases.

China;s Evergrande, property sector, is down 99%.

The US economists still chant it will have little effect on the US!!!!!!!!! Complacency continues with economists, and the investors. 

But what if, as in the initial phase of every past recessions, the US Housing Price Indexes drops lower? Interest rates huge rise is a precursor.

The US FED is still intent on getting the economy into a recession in order to bring their high rates down to 2% range. The big irony is that the FED encouraged the rates rise which followed after a great deal of time lag, from the massive increase in the QE program of the recent past. That plus the artificially ultra low rates for a long time encouraged a bubble economy in all areas and excessive debts build up.

Can you estimate or analyse and evaluate the outcome from all this?

 

 

 

Thanks for the mention - It cannot be understated how much cycles control our ENTIRE economic lives

EWI have done/got some great cycle work along with social trends, which you can fit into the cycles that control everything - its just amazing to think that the cycles that caused our grandparents "Good and Bad" Times, are responsible for our good/bad times as well as our great great great.........grandparents etc

Once you have the CYCLES you can make some fantastic predications, simply because everything REPEATS and through that repeat, you can make an educated guess at social / human responses etc

I've not updated this as Interest rates aren't much Interest to me as I'm not really [financially] affected by them - This is a composite cycle Index up to 2019 of the 10 yr US Treasury Bond YEILD 

Its easy to see the TREND and DIRECTION - Notice the BIG Blue cycle bottomed in late 2010's, then in 2019 lots of the other bigger cycles also bottomed - when MOST of the big cycles turn UP, you need to expect higher rates - which is exactly what happened

The CAUSE of higher rates was to combat INFLATION - its the ONLY weapon against Inflation, so if rates rise, bonds values FALL, in the UK of late people have lots £10,000's on their pension funds because their funds have been "lifestyled" as they approach retirement (move away from stocks into bonds to "safe-guard" the capital/fund value"!!!!

The REASON rates were low from 2000 onwards was due to the risk of DEFLATION and especially CREDIT DEFLATION (which totally happened, hence QE and rock bottom rates)

I'm not 100% locked in the war cycle [yet] - the US need boots on the ground involvement or a sustained period of military involvement of some description, I'll settle for USA navy/air involvement etc - but its all building up

I think the NEXT war cycle occurrence in future decades will definitely involve a USA v China war, most likely brought on by some form/sort of currency &/or trading dominance  

THT