AUD/USD faces volatility amid economic uncertainties

[MongiIG]

Dovish RBA and US jobs report propel AUD/USD turbulence, reshaping economic outlook.

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Unemployment United States

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 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 11 December 2023 05:25

Last week, the AUD/USD soared to a nineteen-week high at .6691, only to plummet nearly 1.5%, closing at .6576. The sharp decline was fuelled by a potent combination of adverse local and offshore events

The dovish on-hold decision by the RBA last Tuesday, coupled with a sub-par Q3 GDP in Australia, triggered a significant transformation in the Australian interest rate market. It shifted from anticipating further RBA rate hikes to now reflecting expectations of rate cuts in 2024.

Simultaneously, a robust US employment report on Friday night pushed back the anticipated timing and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. This development bolstered US yields and the strength of the US dollar. Whether the AUD/USD can steady the ship this week will be determined by events in the US, including CPI, the FOMC meeting and retail sales, but also by Thursday’s all-important Australian jobs report for November.

Australia's employment report (Thursday, 14 December at 11.30 am AEDT)

In October, the Australian economy added 55k jobs vs. the 20k expected. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.6%, and the participation rate increased to 67% from 66.8%.

Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, said: "The large increase in employment in October followed a small increase in September of around 8,000 people. Looking over the past two months, these increases equate to average employment growth of around 31,000 people a month, which is slightly lower than the average growth of 35,000 people a month since October 2022."

In November, the market is looking for a +11k rise in employment, and the unemployment rate to rise to 3.8% from 3.7%. The participation rate is expected to ease to 66.9% from 67%.

AU unemployment rate chart

 

Source: TradingEconomics

AUD/USD technical analysis

In last week’s update, we noted that the rally from the October .6270 low had been anything other than “smooth sailing,” and included several testing retracements.

Given the data-rich calendar touched on above, there is a good chance of more testing price action this week. More so, as the AUD/USD closed the week right on the 200-day moving average, making a high conviction directional view somewhat elusive.

Short-term traders may look to sell bounces back towards trendline resistance and last week's highs .6690 area, looking for the AUD/USD to test the .6520/00 support zone. For those who would prefer to buy the dip, .6520/00 is the support zone that needs to hold to prevent a deeper retracement.

AUD/USD daily chart

 

Source: TradingView

• _{Source TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 December 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}

 

 

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