How do think sugar will go

[Warleb]

Had a punt on this last week and the price went up, looked at it and thought it will go up further. I was wrong. Price has dropped since and seems to be hovering with no real movement. So stuck with this until it rises and goes back over my limit. Cant see that happening for a while.

[Caseynotes]

Hi   Looks fairly low priced historically but also looks like it has some digging to do to extricate from consolidation.

Meanwhile the futures market news is that production and exports are up but china has introduced a tariff so their imports are down, doesn't bode well for price to take off.

 

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/brazils-sugar-exports-to-hit-record-high-despite-china-duty-hike--11109.html

 

 

 

[Warleb]

Many thanks, i don't see it rising either. Unless there is some sugar crisis of course.

[Caseynotes]

Hi   Quite right, all the agriculture markets are at the mercy of big weather events and given the the number of hurricanes in the main producer regions you would be tempted to believe production might be down.

[Warleb]

Well thanks a lot Brazil. That will do nicely. Just a small rise tomorrow morning and i am out.

[Caseynotes]

Hi   That is a very interesting turn around, expectations of an increase in production reported on the 19th Oct have been overturned by a data release today showing a big drop in production of 30% as well as a decrease in expected quality of product.

 

That rough up trendline looks to be holding, expectations are important but actual news is more so, if you have a good stop level maybe worth holding on to see what develops. Possibility of a retest of 1500 and 1537.

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sharp-dip-in-brazil-sugar-output-sends-futures-soaring--11123.html

 

 

 

 

[Warleb]

Stop level is literally just above the finish yesterday. This is a huge turnaround. I was really tempted to close yesterday and maybe lose a bit. As you say i will hang on and see what develops today. Hopefully a bullish start will see it rise further. Many thanks for your extra piece of news.