What figures are you expecting for the upcoming Non-farm payrolls? Join the Q&A with our Market Analyst

[Guest DanC]

The non-farm payrolls report is seen as a particularly influential statistic by traders, and the figures for July will be released on the 7th August 2015.

 

In June 223,000 jobs were added, down from 254,000 (revised from 280,000) added during May, while unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.5%.

 

What levels are you expecting to be released this time around, and how do you think this will affect the markets? Let us know what you think, and see if you can be the closest to the actual figure and win the accolade of Non-farm payroll Champion of the month.

 

We’ll also be running a Q&A session with one of our Analysts prior to the release of the figures, who will answer any questions you may have on the subject. Post any questions you have here, between now and 3pm on Friday and our expert will be on hand to answer your queries.

 

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[Guest FoxTrader]

I predict a non-farm payroll figure of 222 000 and unemployment slightly down to 5.2 %.

 

With job creation then a tad lower, consumer spending should also decline along with economic activity.

In contrast is the lower than expected Unemployment rate, which should impact bullish on the USD.

 

The overall consensus should prove positive for the US economy. 

[FiringSquad13]

Questions for Q&A session:

 

1.  Is there a general consensus that the rate of jobs being added will continue to rise?

2.  Are there any particular sectors that are slowing or raising concern?

3.  How significant are these figures for the Fed rate change?

4.  The below chart shows an uptrend.  Does this suggest that the US economy is growing?

 

 

 

Some of the questions may seem a but obvious but would be nice to have some or all of them answered.

 

Thanks

[Guest DanC]

Hi , thanks for getting involved, your prediction has been noted! Did you have any questions you wanted to pose to our Analyst?

 

 

[Guest DanC]

Thanks for your questions , our Analyst will take a look at these. Did you have a prediction for the overall figure for Friday?

[FiringSquad13]

 I am expecting in the region of 210k - 230k.  I have seen some forecasts predicting a higher figure than analysts expect.  I am watching closely as many are saying this will be really significant to the FED's rate rise decision.

 

With today's BOE rate decision at 8 v 1 (7 v 2 predicted), this may show that central banks are not in any rush to increase rates.  

[Guest DavidM]

Hello FiringSquad13 

 

Here are my views on today's non-farm payrolls:

 

The consensus is that job creation will continue to rise in the US, and the unemployment rate is approaching the full employment level of 5%. The non-farm payrolls number often distracts traders, and is prone to revision, but the unemployment rate is more carefully watched by the Fed. The ADP employment, jobless claims, non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports are not all perfectly corrected. But they are broadly moving in step with each other, and the consensus is it will continue to show a strong jobs market.

Commodity related industries like oil companies and mining firms are hiring fewer staff due to weak commodity prices. Business services, leisure and hospitality are adding a high number of jobs, and this is an indication that corporate spending is on the rise, and that disposable incomes of individuals is on the rise also.

The unemployment is an important factor for the Feds interest rate decision, but Ms Yellen will want to see high wage growth and proof that all aspects of the US economy are strong. In the past two years the jobs data has been more impressive that of services, manufacturing, and retail reports because those who were back in employment were saving their wages and not spending it.

The big picture shows that the US economy is on the rise, and the recent revision from negative to positive growth in Q1 has prevented traders from writing off an interest rate rise in 2015.

 

 

Thanks

David

 

 

[LukeM]

Thanks for your guesses guys - US July non-farm payrolls rise by 215k (June revised from 223k to 231k). Whilst unemployment rate held at 5.3%.

[FiringSquad13]

 very much appreciated for your views.  Interesting point you make about the decline in oil meaning that companies are not hiring staff etc.  I know that here in the UK, North Sea companies are also scalling back.