Jump to content

FTSE100 - Daily Analysis

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 295
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Yeah but, as you know, markets don't move in straight lines, and the US is propping everything up.  If the US does it's EW1-2 retrace today then the FTSE may well end higher than 6080 (especially if that retrace happens after the FTSE closes) but I would still bank on the FTSE making 6000 unless the US makes a fresh higher high.  I feel that Japan is actually the pathfinder for global markets here.

Link to comment

FTSE100 still has further to drop in my view.  EW1-5 not yet completed on the FTSE but Dax is showing the way with weakness and an EW1-5 in play to be completed (maybe at the 50% Fib on the whole of the previous rally, which is close enough).  The FTSE 100 on the other hand has only gone as far as the Fib 23% but hitting the Fib 50% on the nose is a strong indication that further lower lows are coming for me.  Also Stochastic and RSI look bearish on the hourly.  I think it should make at least the Fib 38% if the Dax makes the 50% so that would mean a target of in or around 5950 for this move.  That might be a little strong so 6000 (5990 - underside of the bullish Fib 50% on my previous Daily chart) is my personal target before I expect a serious rally on the US markets to drag the FTSE back up (temporarily I might add).



Link to comment

That strong push back up 09.00-10.00 is enough to give anyone the willies but the 50% Fib is still holding (my stops is just a bit above it and if taken out I will look at the 62% for another entry).  If you look at the companies by sector you will see that the picture is mixed except for Financials and Resources, which are mostly in positive territory and must be the main driving force for this rally.  If Oil drops soon, as I expect, then this rally could run out of steam along with it.  For now I'm still positive on the Fib 50% resistance.

Link to comment

just picking up on the Head & Shoulders discussion on the US Markets Thread.  If you draw a neckline on the FTSE Daily it cuts through the 76% Fib on the hourly at about 6070.  Price is moving hard up to this but if Oil falters at the Fib 62% then this could be a strong Short point.



Link to comment

Last nights move came up to the 76% Fib (Hourly) but this move may have a bit left in it and getting to the 88% at about 6190 is quite possible.  This also coincides with the Red down-tram and tentative neckline on my Daily chart (see last post).


Remember on PRT the Daily lines do not map accurately onto the hourly (soooo irritating!!!) so you keeps having to flick back and forth between the 2. 



Link to comment

Early days on this but we have had a big bounce back off the Fib 88% from the 30 Mar high.  We have had this pattern before when the market turned after a strong rally on 22 Oct 2015 so I ventured a short at the 88% Fib with a tight stop.  


They say forture favours the brave but what about the reckless?  Let's see...  

Link to comment

If by that you mean you expect a relief rally then I tend to agree however for my money the worm has turned on stock markets and I believe the retrace will be short lived (famous last words in the face of US inexplicable optimism but OK).  US stock market futures decidedly ropey this morning despite positivity from the FTSE; Oil is moving back down and so is Dr Copper with Gold, Silver and Platinum all up quite strongly and the Yen is strengthening.  All we need now is for the USD to start strengthening vs EUR and GBP and we are off the the races with a bearish move on stocks.

Link to comment

The stocckmarkets are run by thieves , every pension investment is invested at day's highest offer price .


In the interest of  these  managers , they have to mark up stocks   regularly  , so rallies  and channel bottoms  are important  to them


look  for sells at channel highs , with options or cash

Link to comment

OK that sounds similar to my tramline strategy, which essentially describes a channel.


Re stockbrokers etc, I do tend to agree with that sentiment, at least in the sense that they do what is right for them (bonus) and their organisation (profits) rather than what is right for their clients...  I think it has been a long time since we have seen a financial services organisation set up solely to do the right thing for long term clients and I certainly don't trust the industry, which is why I'm self invested in virtually everything.

Link to comment

My strategy is a lot less sophisticated I have been looking for a drop in the Dow towards 17500 for awhile now. There have been a number of false dawns but I do believe it is on the way.


I hope you guys don't mind me putting in my twopenith's worth


Link to comment

I tend to watch for a general flow of the rise and fall and then taking a position on what appear to be set movements. The figure of 17500 was more of an on the way down point which I have used for a area to take a profit. The move on the 15:00 candle provided me with a nice profit for the day.


Obviuosly, the amount of profit is relative to each persons view. 


My next downward point is around 17420

Link to comment

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 23/07/21 13:53
  • Posts

    • A better than expected trading statement from Vodafone is met with investor favour. Source: Bloomberg   Shares Vodafone M-Pesa Revenue Europe Money  Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021  Vodafone Q1 2021 Trading Statement Vodafone the Europe, Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific telecommunications provider has seen revenue rebound in quarter one (Q1) 2022, as Covid-19 restrictions ease, signaling improving economic conditions particularly in Europe. The group has also highlighted gains in its African operations, most notably from the M-Pesa mobile money offering. For Q1 (of fiscal year 2022), Vodafone has guided via a trading statement that revenue had increased by 5.7% year on year (YoY) to €11.1 billion. Service revenue for the group increased by 3.3% over the period Vodafone has also guided that for the financial year 2022 (FY22), the company expects to achieve full-year targets of €15 billion to €15.4 billion in adjusted earnings as well as a minimum of €5.2 billion in free cash flow. Find out more on how to buy, sell or short Vodafone shares. Vodafone performance across Europe mostly improved In Europe, the group has managed to achieve marginal growth of 1.4% in its operations across Germany. The UK and Spanish markets saw a quarter on quarter (q/q) return to growth, while the group’s Italian operations saw a revenue contraction of around 3.6%. Vodafone’s mobile money offering in Africa gains traction In countries Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the group has seen significant growth through its M-Pesa platform, which allows users to facilitate peer to peer transactions. The platform has seen a surge in usage with transactions via the platform having increased by 45% to 4.5 million from the prior year’s comparative period. This service is now looking to extend into new financial products such as loans, payrolls and savings. Vodafone share price – technical analysis Source: IG charts   The share price of Vodafone has reacted favorably to the Q1 trading statement release, rebounding off the 112.30 support level. The price reversal off support is accompanied by the Stochastic oscillator moving out of oversold territory. These are short term bullish indications suggestive of continued gains with 131.80 the next upside resistance target considered. In summary Q1 2022 revenue increased by 5.7% year on year to €11.1 billion Service revenue for the group increased by 3.3% over the period. Vodafone has seen revenue growth in across most of Europe, with the exception of Italy In the group’s African operations, the M-Pesa mobile money platform has seen a 45% increase in transactions The share price of Vodafone is currently rebounding off support and from oversold territory
    • With Q2 earnings season in full swing, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Coca-Cola provide us with potential trading opportunities.                                                                                                                                             This article looks at some of the big movers off the back of recent earnings announcements to try and find stocks that seem to provide a good trading opportunity. Typically, earnings announcements and trading statements will drive a shift or enhancement of market sentiment. While many see earnings as a significant risk when holding a stock, placing trades in the wake of such events allows for greater confidence that all market knowledge has been factored into current prices. Netflix Netflix shares have been on the back foot after an earnings release that saw the firm fall short on earnings. That decline came despite the fact that the streaming service beat estimates on both revenues and paid subscriber numbers. Interestingly, this pullback brings a potential buying opportunity, with price falling into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level of $502.22. The continued creation of higher lows over the course of the past year brings a strong potential that price will rise from here. As such, a bullish view holds unless price falls back below the most recent swing-low of $482.21. Source: ProRealTime Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson managed to beat estimates for their second quarter, with a massive jump in net income coming thanks to a 27.1% rise in sales. Looking at the chart, we can see that price is approaching the apex of an ascending triangle formation. The ongoing uptrend points towards a bullish breakout before long, with a fall back below $165.32 required to bring a more bearish short-term outlook. Until that happens, this gradual ascent looks likely to provide a bullish breakout through the $171.44 resistance threshold. Source: ProRealTime Coca-Cola Coca-Cola shares have pushed upwards after the firm posted better-than-expected earnings and revenues figures for the second-quarter. With revenues topping their 2019 level, investors were cheered by improved forecasts for the full-year earnings per share (EPS) and revenues. Nonetheless, the pop seen on Wednesday could represent a peak for now, with the recent trend seeing an ascending trendline limit upside moves. However, whether we see a short-term pullback or not, the uptrend and positive earnings report highlight the fact that this stock remains attractive as long as price remains above the $53.55 swing-low. Source: ProRealTime      Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021
    • Oh, and if you haven't considered it already, Bitcoin and Crypto will completely collapse and become regulated.  It will either be driven underground resulting in a 2 tier economy with dark assets and civil terrorism to blame, or completely destroyed by the Central Banks. Retail Trading will Cease and will all private Capital siezed including property and Gold. Either way we'll know for sure where we're headed by 2023!
  • Create New...