FTSE100 - Daily Analysis

[Guest oilfxpro]

more support

[Guest Rich88]

I'd like to see a close below 6080 today, then I'd be more confident about a move to 6000.

[Mercury]

Yeah but, as you know, markets don't move in straight lines, and the US is propping everything up.  If the US does it's EW1-2 retrace today then the FTSE may well end higher than 6080 (especially if that retrace happens after the FTSE closes) but I would still bank on the FTSE making 6000 unless the US makes a fresh higher high.  I feel that Japan is actually the pathfinder for global markets here.

[Guest oilfxpro]

50/50     situation in a ranging market

[Mercury]

FTSE has retraced to the 50% off the 4 April high but Dax has stayed down.  Anyone seeing a short here?

[Guest Rich88]

I got an sell order in at 6130. Out of the office all day.

Oil rallyed to hard to quick over night too

[Mercury]

Yeah I took it at 6125.  I guess the Fib 50% resistance was good huh..?  Dax has just made a lower low too.

[Mercury]

FTSE100 still has further to drop in my view.  EW1-5 not yet completed on the FTSE but Dax is showing the way with weakness and an EW1-5 in play to be completed (maybe at the 50% Fib on the whole of the previous rally, which is close enough).  The FTSE 100 on the other hand has only gone as far as the Fib 23% but hitting the Fib 50% on the nose is a strong indication that further lower lows are coming for me.  Also Stochastic and RSI look bearish on the hourly.  I think it should make at least the Fib 38% if the Dax makes the 50% so that would mean a target of in or around 5950 for this move.  That might be a little strong so 6000 (5990 - underside of the bullish Fib 50% on my previous Daily chart) is my personal target before I expect a serious rally on the US markets to drag the FTSE back up (temporarily I might add).

 

Chart:



[Mercury]

That strong push back up 09.00-10.00 is enough to give anyone the willies but the 50% Fib is still holding (my stops is just a bit above it and if taken out I will look at the 62% for another entry).  If you look at the companies by sector you will see that the picture is mixed except for Financials and Resources, which are mostly in positive territory and must be the main driving force for this rally.  If Oil drops soon, as I expect, then this rally could run out of steam along with it.  For now I'm still positive on the Fib 50% resistance.

[Mercury]

50% didn't hold, got stopped out for a small loss.  now targeting 62% and US opening.

[Guest Rich88]

I bought at 6130 and have a stop at 6155 bullish over this level in my view

[Mercury]

Totally agree.  Good strategy to hold stops above the next level Fib.  I went for the tight stop and reenter approach this time.

[Mercury]

just picking up on the Head & Shoulders discussion on the US Markets Thread.  If you draw a neckline on the FTSE Daily it cuts through the 76% Fib on the hourly at about 6070.  Price is moving hard up to this but if Oil falters at the Fib 62% then this could be a strong Short point.

 

Charts:



[Mercury]

Last nights move came up to the 76% Fib (Hourly) but this move may have a bit left in it and getting to the 88% at about 6190 is quite possible.  This also coincides with the Red down-tram and tentative neckline on my Daily chart (see last post).

 

Remember on PRT the Daily lines do not map accurately onto the hourly (soooo irritating!!!) so you keeps having to flick back and forth between the 2. 

 

Chart:



[Mercury]

Early days on this but we have had a big bounce back off the Fib 88% from the 30 Mar high.  We have had this pattern before when the market turned after a strong rally on 22 Oct 2015 so I ventured a short at the 88% Fib with a tight stop.  

 

They say forture favours the brave but what about the reckless?  Let's see...  

[Mercury]

That is to say Fortune...

 

Forgot the chart, here it is



[Guest oilfxpro]

channel bottom formed on ftse dax

 

 

 



[Guest oilfxpro]



[Mercury]

If by that you mean you expect a relief rally then I tend to agree however for my money the worm has turned on stock markets and I believe the retrace will be short lived (famous last words in the face of US inexplicable optimism but OK).  US stock market futures decidedly ropey this morning despite positivity from the FTSE; Oil is moving back down and so is Dr Copper with Gold, Silver and Platinum all up quite strongly and the Yen is strengthening.  All we need now is for the USD to start strengthening vs EUR and GBP and we are off the the races with a bearish move on stocks.

[Guest oilfxpro]

The stocckmarkets are run by thieves , every pension investment is invested at day's highest offer price .

 

In the interest of  these  managers , they have to mark up stocks   regularly  , so rallies  and channel bottoms  are important  to them

 

look  for sells at channel highs , with options or cash

[Mercury]

OK that sounds similar to my tramline strategy, which essentially describes a channel.

 

Re stockbrokers etc, I do tend to agree with that sentiment, at least in the sense that they do what is right for them (bonus) and their organisation (profits) rather than what is right for their clients...  I think it has been a long time since we have seen a financial services organisation set up solely to do the right thing for long term clients and I certainly don't trust the industry, which is why I'm self invested in virtually everything.

[Guest MrJake]

My strategy is a lot less sophisticated I have been looking for a drop in the Dow towards 17500 for awhile now. There have been a number of false dawns but I do believe it is on the way.

 

I hope you guys don't mind me putting in my twopenith's worth

 

[Mercury]

Of course not!  That's the whole point of the forum.  But do tell your assessment of why it would fall back and why 17500?   Not that I am disagreeing, just curious.  For the record I think this will go way, way lower than 17500.

[Guest oilfxpro]

Mercury 

 

If you look at Dax charts , supportsand resistances and  trend lines channels work very well.

 

It respects supports resistances

 

Dax is very volatile to trade cash , so I now trade options , at these important levels

 

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/Technical-analysis-and-charts/ger30-DAX-daily-anylysis/m-p/2774#U2774

[Guest Rich88]

My targets is 17500 to. The dow has been used to false selloffs at the start of the day thought. Let's see if we break below 17600

[Guest ChrisB]

Weakness seems to be quite broad based at the minute, with a lot of that down to oil. I quite like the 2hr chart and there's a half decent channel at work: 

[Mercury]

Actually that chart looks very similar to the Brent Crude 2 hour chart, check out Oil thread.

[Guest ChrisB]

It has been practically lockstep for weeks now! 

[Guest MrJake]

I tend to watch for a general flow of the rise and fall and then taking a position on what appear to be set movements. The figure of 17500 was more of an on the way down point which I have used for a area to take a profit. The move on the 15:00 candle provided me with a nice profit for the day.

 

Obviuosly, the amount of profit is relative to each persons view. 

 

My next downward point is around 17420

[Guest MrJake]

Sorry about the spelling "Obviously"