Jump to content

FTSE100 - Daily Analysis

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 295
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Yes, that was difficult. Price having failed to get back in range at 3-5 AM continued down, stalled at the 6185 then smashed it. The move back up from 6150 was a strong bull move rather than just a bear profit taking pullback. On the smaller time frames it looked for a while the bears might get continuation off the 1685 but not to be.


Bulls now trying to get a strong opening bar in.



12:45 ECB rate decision.

13:30 ECB Presser.

Tomorrow US NFP. 


Link to post

On the daily chart it's easy to see the bulls were in control of the 6100 level and have been since mid March. That would be a great level to get long if price retraced that far again but there was real urgency and they didn't wait and succeeded in getting the bar close above the 6185 weekly support/resistance level.  

Any short from higher up could only have been seen as a scalp on the retracement back down, possibly to retest  6100 - 6050 but the bulls were always going to step in at some point.

As per usual, it doesn't pay to try to predict, but try to react. No one can out think the market, if something looks like it should happen it's probably a trap.




Link to post


I came up with 6260 as well but was wondering what your rationale was? I see the range in the rectangle as a liquidity block (an area of high liquidity) where bears overcame bulls before and so should do so again if price has retraced back to it. With liquidity blocks you draw a line mid way through and look for price to close in and then rebound back down.










Link to post

Good afternoon


What a tough trading week that was!? On friday I had a sell order on the ftse at 6260 but we never got that far. But my excitement got to me and I sold half at 6230 with a trailing stop of 15 points. So still happy.

A tough fight is going on between the bulls and bears mainly down to following hope with oil and the us equities (what evers going on with them at the moment) this will very likely change approaching the referendum.

I'm keen to short anything between 6250 - 6300.

Link to post


The 8:00 open, very strong bull bar fired straight into the 6260 where it has met with resistance as expected, interesting to see direction from here. Would still need to capture 6295/6300 for a bias shift to long but with referendum polls coming out thick and fast this and GBP showing lots of nervous volatility.






Link to post

 See the liquidity area mentioned in Fridays post working here in reverse. Then it was an unfinished auction bear heavy, now it's an unfinished auction bull heavy but clearly both are working round the same level. There is absolutely no reason why this market can't go where-ever it wants to go.






Link to post

Curiously the non US markets have been heading south making lower lows while the large cap US markets have not.  My current feeling is that US markets could very well make new all time highs (S&P in particular got very close) but perhaps others will not quite make it.  As such I would guard against a strong rally in all stock indices over the coming days and trading prior to the Fed release on Wednesday is not for me unless I can see a definitive move.  Currently stock markets are murky at best so I'm waiting on the sidelines for more clarity and better entry points.  FX much more interesting for me just now.

Link to post

Could be  but there is strong support at about 5850ish which coincides with the Fib 62%.  Based on the profile of the FTSe it looks to me like the market has turned into a wave 3 down, hopefully the first of several, but the restraining factor so far has been the US markets.  If they catch a bid back up, very likely in my view, then the FTSE will be dragged back up.  However, as mentioned previously, I don't see the non US markets making fresh all time highs.  We really need to see the US markets make the turn (whether with fresh all time highs or not) before we can get excited about the prospect of a sustained Bear market.  With Gold almost certainly confirmed as in a Bull rally (see Gold post from this morning) and commodities tipping back into a possible wave 4 final Bear phase things are set well.  Now all we need is those pesky American optimists to wake up and smell the coffee!


Link to post

Yes, FTSE is at a real interesting level here, that support level is taken off the monthly chart and has been very significant time and time again, and if it breaks then below is relatively clear to 5500 as  points out. Doubt if today's retail sales 9:30 or BOE rate decision 12:00 will be the spark but a Brexit poll just might do it.


Link to post

Looks trapped between two major levels going into Friday. No Brexit polls today but one tomorrow and one on Wednesday. Nothing much on the calendar for GBP today. May look to retest the lower level but unlikely to have the impetus to break out.


Link to post

Looking like a failed attempt to fill the gap, may have to look for sellers at 6300 instead. ICM confirmed today they have no further polls commissioned before vote, one other polling firm releases poll on Wednesday.




Link to post

FT poll of polls has the 2 sides neck and neck but if you only look at online polls (i.e. exclude telephone polls where they do not give a "don't know" options) then Leave is ahead.  This is interesting as conventional polling wisdom has it that when you do not give a don't know option people tend to go with status quo.  The open question is whether these people would also vote status quo, make their minds up at the last minute or neglect to vote.


All-in all it is too close to call.



Link to post

Hi  , the 6225 is a good level as it marked the top of the month long range in March but was superseded by the 6300 just before the polls went into vote leave territory and price tumbled, if the market feels those concerns have dissipated it seems 6300 will more likely come into play again. I'm not so concerned with waning momentum in this type of situation, it's inevitable after a huge spike.

But the market will do what it wants and this one is so news lead at the moment makes it very difficult to read.


Link to post

You guys seen the pretty reliable V-shaped patterns in FTSE over the past 8 months? 5/8 of those months we have seen the market sell-off heavily and bottom out in the middle third of the month (11-20th). Another one to come this month?



Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 16/06/21 16:22
  • Posts

    • 99.999% of people don't understand how the markets work, let alone the TC's, but they still manage to make money from so don't dismiss your knowledge - the markets are doing things most people haven't a clue about - I'm not prepared to divulge the cause nor the mathematical formula to work out the TC's, if I did you'd be able to see very clearly the repetition - I know exactly where you're coming from, I'm the most sceptical person you will ever meet  about the markets, so I know its hard to understand or believe They repeat because humans buying and selling still make the same decisions now as they did hundreds of years ago - human behaviour is very predictable, even in different economic times There's always a reason attached to plunges so the media and fund management world can say this caused X but they never tell you in advance - I've published elsewhere in advance the dates so to dispel anyone challenging I did it after the event  Forex - EXACTLY - they are highly erratic - they work to different Time cycles than the stock market, which is why they act differently - but the overall laws of the market regarding swings, price action etc still apply and can be exploited to our advantage The 50% is the balance point - the laws of physics apply here - markets respect a lot of the laws of physics and mathematics in certain ways, which is why the TC's work etc It happens on all time-frames - If the market is abiding by the laws of physics for an up trend then if price crashes down through the 50% level of the prev range/swing then it should revert back up through that level purely down to the laws of motion and physics     
    • Nothing new in basic principles since Dow, Wyckoff and Gann a hundred years ago. The key is not to find something new but to not make the 1001 potential mistakes. Maybe correlations rather than patterns. Fundamental analysis for direction and targets but technical analysis for how price goes about getting there.    
    • Forgot to mention your 50% lines THT, i see what you mean shaving off 50% of the market value does seem to be common when there is a big dip.  Again don't see the sense why though but you can say that about a lot of things.  
  • Create New...