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FTSE100 - Daily Analysis


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Yes, that was difficult. Price having failed to get back in range at 3-5 AM continued down, stalled at the 6185 then smashed it. The move back up from 6150 was a strong bull move rather than just a bear profit taking pullback. On the smaller time frames it looked for a while the bears might get continuation off the 1685 but not to be.

 

Bulls now trying to get a strong opening bar in.

 

Today

12:45 ECB rate decision.

13:30 ECB Presser.

Tomorrow US NFP. 

 



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On the daily chart it's easy to see the bulls were in control of the 6100 level and have been since mid March. That would be a great level to get long if price retraced that far again but there was real urgency and they didn't wait and succeeded in getting the bar close above the 6185 weekly support/resistance level.  

Any short from higher up could only have been seen as a scalp on the retracement back down, possibly to retest  6100 - 6050 but the bulls were always going to step in at some point.

As per usual, it doesn't pay to try to predict, but try to react. No one can out think the market, if something looks like it should happen it's probably a trap.

 



 

 

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Hi 

I came up with 6260 as well but was wondering what your rationale was? I see the range in the rectangle as a liquidity block (an area of high liquidity) where bears overcame bulls before and so should do so again if price has retraced back to it. With liquidity blocks you draw a line mid way through and look for price to close in and then rebound back down.

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Good afternoon

 

What a tough trading week that was!? On friday I had a sell order on the ftse at 6260 but we never got that far. But my excitement got to me and I sold half at 6230 with a trailing stop of 15 points. So still happy.

A tough fight is going on between the bulls and bears mainly down to following hope with oil and the us equities (what evers going on with them at the moment) this will very likely change approaching the referendum.

I'm keen to short anything between 6250 - 6300.

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Hi 

The 8:00 open, very strong bull bar fired straight into the 6260 where it has met with resistance as expected, interesting to see direction from here. Would still need to capture 6295/6300 for a bias shift to long but with referendum polls coming out thick and fast this and GBP showing lots of nervous volatility.

 



 

 

 

 

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 See the liquidity area mentioned in Fridays post working here in reverse. Then it was an unfinished auction bear heavy, now it's an unfinished auction bull heavy but clearly both are working round the same level. There is absolutely no reason why this market can't go where-ever it wants to go.

 



 

 

 

 

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Curiously the non US markets have been heading south making lower lows while the large cap US markets have not.  My current feeling is that US markets could very well make new all time highs (S&P in particular got very close) but perhaps others will not quite make it.  As such I would guard against a strong rally in all stock indices over the coming days and trading prior to the Fed release on Wednesday is not for me unless I can see a definitive move.  Currently stock markets are murky at best so I'm waiting on the sidelines for more clarity and better entry points.  FX much more interesting for me just now.

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Could be  but there is strong support at about 5850ish which coincides with the Fib 62%.  Based on the profile of the FTSe it looks to me like the market has turned into a wave 3 down, hopefully the first of several, but the restraining factor so far has been the US markets.  If they catch a bid back up, very likely in my view, then the FTSE will be dragged back up.  However, as mentioned previously, I don't see the non US markets making fresh all time highs.  We really need to see the US markets make the turn (whether with fresh all time highs or not) before we can get excited about the prospect of a sustained Bear market.  With Gold almost certainly confirmed as in a Bull rally (see Gold post from this morning) and commodities tipping back into a possible wave 4 final Bear phase things are set well.  Now all we need is those pesky American optimists to wake up and smell the coffee!

 



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Yes, FTSE is at a real interesting level here, that support level is taken off the monthly chart and has been very significant time and time again, and if it breaks then below is relatively clear to 5500 as  points out. Doubt if today's retail sales 9:30 or BOE rate decision 12:00 will be the spark but a Brexit poll just might do it.

 



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Looks trapped between two major levels going into Friday. No Brexit polls today but one tomorrow and one on Wednesday. Nothing much on the calendar for GBP today. May look to retest the lower level but unlikely to have the impetus to break out.

 



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Looking like a failed attempt to fill the gap, may have to look for sellers at 6300 instead. ICM confirmed today they have no further polls commissioned before vote, one other polling firm releases poll on Wednesday.

 



 

 

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FT poll of polls has the 2 sides neck and neck but if you only look at online polls (i.e. exclude telephone polls where they do not give a "don't know" options) then Leave is ahead.  This is interesting as conventional polling wisdom has it that when you do not give a don't know option people tend to go with status quo.  The open question is whether these people would also vote status quo, make their minds up at the last minute or neglect to vote.

 

All-in all it is too close to call.

 

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/?ftcamp=traffic/sem/tactical_brexit/uk_google/essence_sem/auddev

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Hi  , the 6225 is a good level as it marked the top of the month long range in March but was superseded by the 6300 just before the polls went into vote leave territory and price tumbled, if the market feels those concerns have dissipated it seems 6300 will more likely come into play again. I'm not so concerned with waning momentum in this type of situation, it's inevitable after a huge spike.

But the market will do what it wants and this one is so news lead at the moment makes it very difficult to read.

 

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You guys seen the pretty reliable V-shaped patterns in FTSE over the past 8 months? 5/8 of those months we have seen the market sell-off heavily and bottom out in the middle third of the month (11-20th). Another one to come this month?

 

 



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