Jump to content

US Stock Indices


Mercury

Recommended Posts

Guest Condor

Morning  I'm wondering if the last hour of the US500 yesterday gave the wB it turned around at 2037-ish.  This could be the retrace up to wC .  wC if it occurs could be up at your yellow circles area (short zones) - will be looking for momentum divergence up there to indicate strong move down to follow. C

Link to comment
  • Replies 172
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Hi Condor,

 

That is my current lead option thinking too, however all the main indices have put in a technical A-B-C (the US and FTSE with Yesterdays high).  I think this could be a messy ending with Oil stumbling in the congestion zone.  If stock markets put in a lower high followed by a lower low, especially breaking below the 7 Apr low (US) then we have to conclude that the turn has already happened.  There is always another entry point so no need to panic, need a lot of patience and nerve just now I feel.

 

Net, I am stalking the turning point I had previously identified but preparing back stop entries in case the markets break lower.

Link to comment
Guest MrJake

Well, so much for the market dropping. Thank goodness I took my own advice and did the complete opposite of what I though. In the process earning a nice sum with additional positions in play.

 

I do, of course, have a plan for the sneaky Wall Street for when it does go down  

Link to comment

That would bring up a double top?  No just short, again the Fib 88%, my last ditch on this one too.  All getting very last ditch everywhere isn't it?  Will the Bulls rule the day or will the Bears regain control, ah that is the question.

Link to comment
Guest Condor

Exactly, using the Fib. I think lots of people have been wrong on calling the turn for quite a while(outside of this forum) and yesterday I was wrong again on FTSE & Oil.   But I'm persevering as timing might be off but that doesn't mean it isn't coming.  If the price chart says otherwise then I'll have to re-evaluate. C

Link to comment

Ha!  Inside the forum too, myself included.  I am grappling with confirmation bias because I am Bearish but in addition this has been a very strong rally with few, if any, real dips.  As we have always said, the Bulls may have their way and make all time highs again off the back of central bank tinkering but the economy (and I think the earnings will bear this out) don't support valuation at these levels).  The bear is coming but maybe we will have to wait and be patient.

 

Short & Long term I remain a Bear.  If we breach Nov highs though I will turn Bullish for the medium term and seek to buy dips to higher highs.  You gotta trade what the market deals you and not what you feel ought to happen, this is an important part off getting the trading psychology in good shape and I must admit I still have to cement this into my own trading habit.

 

 

Link to comment
Guest MrJake

 

 

Your comments make perfect sense and this has been borne out by my trading in both directions over the last couple of months

 

I look for short and medium term trends and react as I see fit

 

Your point regarding trading psychology is very important to make sure those emotions are kept in check

Link to comment
Guest Condor

Agree with you both  on trading psychology - this is what i need to get clear in my head (& fast).  The trend is my friend  - & you can't buck it despite what you might intuitively feel - in my case bearish. C

Link to comment
Guest mcdublintrader

I agree I think short to medium term we may see more highs with the DOW & S&P however the bad news will finally catch up with the US and we will again turn bear and in a big way.

However on the bad news today I have an order in to sell the DOW at 17830 with a SL at 17880 and close the deal at 17710 making my 100+ today.

However it may dip as low as 17665.

Let's see

Link to comment

Very Overbought Rich88.

 

And now the Dow has hit a very interesting resistance line (the lower line of the congestion zone of the Nov 2015 turn).  This is effectively a double Top if it turns here and so far it has bounced away from the line.  Very strong Neg Mom Div (vs both lower peaks in this rally and the previous turning point making up the double top) and also same on Stochastic and RSI.

 

On the hourly chart something very interesting is happening, The rally up over the past few days has been remarkably steep (just look at the Triangle it is contained within.  Additionally there is negative divergence on all 3 of my indicators AND, just for fun, a Kiss back on the previous Triangle line.  Such sharp rallies are indicative of so-called exhaustion buying (if only we had volume data...)

 

The bounce off the congestion zone, the double Top and the set up on Oil gives me the view that we can expect a serious retrace soon (maybe imminently...)  I have a few positions underwater but will hold them a little longer to see how this plays out with stops above the previous turn highs (Nov 2015 - 17978).

 

Interestingly the S&P is lagging, don't know if that is Bearish or just means it will catch up...

 

Charts:

 

 

Charts:

Link to comment

Out of the channel now!  With turns at analytically significant levels across the board and bearish indicators everywhere.  As with the FTSE (see other post) this one could drop at least to the Fib 38% level IF the turn is confirmed with an small scale 1-2 move.  That's 900-1000 points IF it happens...

Link to comment

Are Stock markets finally breaking up with Oil?  The S&P500 hourly chart suggests so, while Oil is charging up the stock markets are sluggish (the Dow is a little more buoyant but then it has more Oil stocks in it).  Also the Russell, a leading indicator in my opinion, is in negative territory today.  A break of the lower Triangle line on both could be a key here...

 

This all needs to be confirmed with candle closes but one to watch for battered Bears.

 



Link to comment

The similarities with 2008 (and indeed with 2000) are striking but I'm not sure we are there yet.  Another leg up to a new all time high cannot yet be ruled out but some other scenarios are emerging on the big picture too.  For now it looks to me like this rally is over, with ending Triangles all over the place.  The move down through the Triangle's lower line is strong and a turn and retrace with a lower high is the key to sealing the end of the rally for me.  At that stage I think we would be on for a significant bear run, at least 1000 points on the Dow but after than we are in multiple scenario land again.  As for me, I'm just focusing on sorting this current move, I'll worry about the bigger picture another day.

 



Link to comment

That is exactly how I see it, except that I believe we are about to endure another Bear market and it could be much much worse that the other two...  The trick, as always, is to figure out the timing of the final turn down.  Is it now?  Is there one more leg up before it starts?  Who knows but more and more people are coming to the realisation that the Bull glory days are over so even if there is a final run up to new all time highs they will be short lived indeed.

 

Until things clarify swing trading is the only strategy that makes sense to me, now I just need to get better at it, sigh!

Link to comment

Could be, we might get a break and kiss back on the lower line before larger drop.  I fancy price might go sideways with a smallish retrace (maybe back to your wedge line) and then begin a move down.  This could take a day or two to resolve (maybe sometime on Tuesday next at a guess).

 

The problem with the wedge is the length and degree of accuracy of the touches, especially on the bottom line.  I have an alternative that might work as well, a set of parallel tramlines (grey), which are working in conjunction with the ending Triangle (pink).  Just had a break of the lower tram and if we get a little run down further to complete a small wave 1 then a small wave 2 retrace could provide us with a kiss back on the Tramline.

 

 

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,309
    • Total Posts
      90,973
    • Total Members
      41,442
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 12:53

    Newest Member
    TeeKay
    Joined 09/02/23 09:23
  • Posts

    • Gold on the rise, as Brent crude and natural gas show signs of impending weakness Ongoing trends look likely to continue, with gold grinding higher as Brent crude and natural gas show signs of potential impending weakness. Source: Bloomberg      Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023  Gold grinds higher after collapse into trendline support Gold ended last week with a bang as price collapsed into a fresh four-week low. However, despite growing calls for a reversal across a number of asset classes, this week has seen equity markets and the dollar turn back in the direction of their prevailing trend. Given the close correlation between the dollar and gold, this signals the potential for another move higher for precious metals if money does not flow into the dollar. For gold, the current grind higher looks likely to continue, with a break back below the recent low of $1861 required to create a fresh bearish outlook. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude rebound takes price back up towards descending trendline Brent crude has spent much of the week regaining lost ground following a bearish turn that saw $10 sliced off the price in the space of a fortnight. The wider trend does remain bearish, with the descending trendline and Fibonacci resistance levels bringing the potential for another bearish turn before long. With price currently at the 61.8% retracement ($85.20), there is a good chance we see the bears come into play before long. Watch for a move through 80 on the stochastic to signal a bearish turn from a momentum perspective. To the upside, we would need to see a push up through the $89.01 resistance level to bring confidence of a more protracted bullish rebound. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas turns lower from Fibonacci resistance Natural gas has turned lower once again after a rebound in the early part of the week. This is a market that has been a consistent performer for the bears, with the relatively balmy European winter ensuring that storage levels remain well topped up throughout the drawdown period of the year. While we did see a push into the 76.4% Fibonacci level on Tuesday, price has been reversing lower in line with the wider bearish trend. With a very consistent bearish trend still in play, we would need to see a push up through the $2.789 swing-high to bring about a more positive outlook. Until then, further downside looks likely. Source: ProRealTime
    • ASX 200 afternoon report: 9th of February 2023 Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 9th February, 3.00 pm AEDT.   Source: Bloomberg   Indices ASX Coal Dividend S&P/ASX 200 Interest rate  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023  The ASX 200 trades 43 points (-0.57%) lower at 7487 at 3.00 pm Sydney time. The ASX 200 has slumped today, taking its lead from a fall on Wall Street, as Fed Speakers hit the wires to beat the hawkish drums and remind markets that higher rates will be required for longer to bring down inflation. IT sector The tech sector experienced losses today, led by Google. Google fell 7.44% after its new AI intelligence chatbot Bard underwhelmed Sezzle fell 8.53% ZIP fell 5.91% Megaport fell 5.65% as it elected not to pay a dividend Novonix fell 4.72% to $1.72. AGL fell 11% after reporting a loss of $ 1.1 billion for the first half of the year. It also slashed guidance and its interim dividend to 8c per share. Elsewhere, Real Estate heavyweight Mirvac slumped 5% to $2.28 as wet weather, interest rate hikes, and labour shortages limited its first-half earnings. Financial sector The pressure of this week’s RBA rate hike and intensification in the fight for new deposits has hada negative effect on all banks apart from ANZ. ANZ has added 0.23% to $23.85 after its upbeat trading update NAB fell 0.8% to $31.80 Westpac fell 0.36% to $23.82 CBA fell 0.4% to $109.89. Mining sector The 40% fall in the price of coal out of Newcastle since the start of the year continues to weigh on the coal miners. Whitehaven coal fell 5.62% to $8.06 New Hope fell 4.9% to $5.81 Yancoal fell 4.62% to $5.87 Coronado Coal fell 4.65% Fortescue Metals added 0.89% to $22.68 BHP added 0.02% to $48.13 Rio Tinto fell 0.4% to $123.65. Technical analysis We view the ASX 200 as being stretched to the upside and overbought after five straight weeks of gains. For the Elliott Wave followers, there is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low to this week’s 7567.7 high. All of which warn that a pullback is looming. A break of support at 7460/50 (coming from recent lows) would indicate that a medium-term high is in place and that a corrective pullback is underway. We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area. ASX 200 daily chart     Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of February 9th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
    • FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 make fresh push higher Indices have had a mixed week, but are once again attempting to make upward progress. Source: Bloomberg      Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023  FTSE 100 moves above 7900 again The index is making a new attempt to push on above 7900 today, having struggled around this level yesterday. The index clearly has the psychological 8000 level in focus, as it makes a move to build on the bounce from the late January support zone above 7700. So long as it holds above this level the bullish view remains in place, with sellers needing a move below 7700 to suggest a short-term pullback is in play. Source: ProRealTime DAX edges higher After the weakness on Monday and Tuesday the index has pushed back above 15,500. Additional gains continue to target 15,600, and from there the 1 February 2022 high at 15,715 comes into view. The index does remain overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and today’s initial gains have widened the gap. But for the moment this is more of a warning to buyers not to chase this market higher, and at present there is little sign of any serious pullback developing. That would require a move below 15,000 at the least. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 stuck in a narrow range The index has found it impossible to establish a clear direction this week, but overall the buyers still seem to have the upper hand. The consolidation for the week so far means that we await a move above 4200 to establish a fresh bullish thrust in price terms, potentially opening the way to the August highs above 4300. Meanwhile, a reversal below 4100 would provide the bears with some hope of a short-term pullback, though as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA the outlook will continue to lean broadly bullish. Source: ProRealTime
×
×
  • Create New...