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Apple - has the trend come to an end?

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This run has been amazing,  but the recent trading update / some news / some downgrades - could mean the end of the trend

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Edited by elle

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@elle,

First of all excellent thread and excellent question posted. 

From the chart (daily) it seems like a correction was due and some will love this opportunity to top up or buy on the dips. 

The price has gone below its 20 DMA, 50 DMA and 100 DMA. However at this point in time the price is still above its 200DMA so for me the current trend is down but the longer term trend is still in tact. If the price crossed the 200 DMA then I would say it could be leading to the end of the trend but this has not been confirmed just yet. 

1595382822_AppleInc(AllSessions)_20181105_20_30.thumb.png.d3b575c2d635d875456efc2aabd7ec3d.png

The key question which presents itself here is whether one would short Apple right now. I think a more aggressive trader would have opened up a short as soon as the 20 DMA had been crossed but certainly before the 50 DMA was crossed. 

The one thing I have noticed on IG Community in general is a lack of discussion around short trades especially when the opportunities are presenting themselves yet there seems to be little discussion. I tried on my Lumber thread but did not get much discussion and Lumber was a brilliant short trade.

When would some of you within the IG Community consider shorting Apple? What would need to happen to the price for you to consider opening a short?

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Shorting Apple down to 19000 mark would be super aggresive from this point. I always look at the daily chart and would probably wait to see when and how high the next long candle is before doing so. 

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From the chart (daily) one could infer that the bigger the move up the bigger the correction when it arrives.

@Nelsy-Boy, yes you are right it would be super aggressive as one would think the next leg up in Apple will shortly commence but that does not necessarily mean it would be the wrong move. 

For me one should consider the following:

  • Trend Strength
  • Volume
  • Volatility
  • Momentum

Let me know whether your next long candle supports a short move or not.

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Oh dear. There was the 19000 mark hit and a little beyond today. Was that pre-cursor price action for another downward move tomorrow or has it come back up with such force that tomorrow will be a continuing move up. Just looking at the daily still, nothing else although they still have a few more market hours to go over there.

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I don't trade individual shares so have no vested interest in this but for what it is worth, there is an argument that the top is in with a pin bar reversal price action on the Weekly chart.  On the Monthly chart I have a speculative pair of channels that are exactly equal in width (a charting feature necessary for validity) but the number of touches on the lines are not great.  This is to be expected with such a parabolic rally as we have seen on these tech stocks.

I can make a case for a top out and strong retrace rally or one more leg up before a top out.  In either case I don't see a Short until we see one of the above scenarios play out.  If one wanted to take a short now then Stops would need to be above the recent top of the market but if there is another higher high that stop would be taken out.  For me insufficient boxes are ticked yet, it is much the same as my assessment of Oil really.

AAPL-Monthly_1118.thumb.png.59402d9b817e1da1f0fa10510cfc37fb.pngAAPL-Weekly_061118.thumb.png.7da0b6c77dcc646834b0ceb29ea6df5b.png

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