Caseynotes

Hi  The evolving 'R' through a trade is an important concept. As price closes in on target your potential reward diminishes but your potential risk increases. If price is looking to pullback just before my target I am quite happy to just close out. Why sit through a full pullback cycle (which may fail) just to gain an extra few pips and risk all of the gain made so far? The 'always in' strategy is intriguing and I have read about it before but there were no specifics on judging the turning points, an interesting one to trial on a demo.

Yes, I was right. I am definitely going to have to learn a lot more about risk verses probability, and binaries for that matter too. I afraid am going to have to read your last post a few more times, have a think, and a quick study before I dare to comment further. There is a lot of real interesting stuff in there and you have rather left me behind. Though I do understand, as you say, analysing through intuition and the imperative to gain experience which cuts down the thinking time allowing faster decisions. Especially for intraday. Because, again as you say, these structures aren't as clear in real time. Blindingly obvious with hindsight. As you watch a candle turn into a spike you watch the urgency and the probability increase but so does the risk (if you intend to put your stop under it). I'm going to have to do more thinking. Coincidently this popped up this morning and seems to be along similar lines though I haven't read it in full yet. https://www.tradingtechnologies.com/blog/2016/04/19/when-is-a-long-shot-a-good-shot/ Cheers

I have often meant to take the time to learn more about the direct, proportional relationship between probability and risk reward ratio. Probably less confusing to refer to risk reward ratio as simpley ratio, or R as risk will always be 1. So your stop amount is always refered to as 1 and then the reward can be expressed simply as R 1.5 for a 1.5 gain for example or minus 1 if you are stopped out. For the intraday trader higher probability set-ups often have a lower reward potential but most instructors will advise you to steer clear of low ratio trades, and yet advise you to stick to high probability trades, something of a paradox.

Sorry  I completely forgot to reply re; what do people think about binaries. The truth is (in spite of my joke) that I have no education in and therefore would never offer an opinion on binaries. Which is why I am keen to follow your posts and please reveal more if you felt so inclined. Cheers.

I must admit I'm not so interested in the amount of result (to coin a phrase) but in what you do, and how you do it? When it comes to binaries I can only think of that old joke, Man speaking to financial advisor: Man; My ex-wife tells me she's now trading binaries and making 10,000 a month. She says I should give it a try, what do you think? FA; So it was a messy break up then.

Good to see you are back, would miss your run down on the Asian session to start the day if you stopped. Disappointed to hear of a grievance with IG. The world of the broker has always seemed somewhat unclear, I have heard IG reps declare IG only profits from the spread but other times they seem to infer they do 'bundle and hedge', presumably to offset large oneway market consensus and not actually for profit? The stats for the retail trader are pretty horrific already without your broker not being on your side (90% fail and 70% fail within the first year). It's an old joke that a broker is called that because that's what they make you but I do hope things work out amicably.

 Do take notes, but also start a simple trading excel spreadsheet and really see what's going on - over many trades. That's the only way to truly evaluate your strategy. Winrate against Risk/Reward. If your win rate verses RR plots above the line you are profitable, if below - change your strategy.  

And also implied negative rates OR even worse 'helicopter money'.

I bowed out today, no trades, whiplash mania eurodollar, no-one knew what it all meant. Zero interest rates - whipsaw then higher euro? what?

Good Thread, Zero + TheSurgeon, I don't follow indices though I know I should (and bonds for that matter) I'm presuming your talking spoos, I don't know the IG codes for indices. But you both seem to be talking sense, which is unusual and interesting. Keep it live, keep it going...

BTFD = Buy The Failed Dip in a bull trend (or sell the failed rally in a bear trend). Waiting for pullbacks then entering when price reverses back to continue with trend. I don't actually use the signal centre, I just studied them for a while. 1:2 RR just means setting your profit target (reward) at twice your stop value (risk). Hope this helps.

When I looked at the signal centre (some time ago) I thought they were quite slow to publish too. Though they do try to identify breakouts and the best strategy is to wait for a pullback after a breakout to Buy The Failed Dip (or sell the failed rally). Which charts? Always look for a trending chart to BTFD. Trouble deciding when to get out? Set a profit target and trail your stop to it, try a set risk/reward ratio eg 1:2 or 1:3, or maybe use a previous support/resistance level, or perhaps next significant round number (50s or 100s).