Mercury

So looks to me like Bitcoin might have hit a wave 4 top. Very strong wave C of an A-B-C ending in a classic ending diagonal formation (1-5 count within the formation); a Bearish pin bar turn, not far from the Fib 38% off the all time high on NMD with RSI and Stochastic over bough and turning back also. Add to that a breakout of that ending diagonal formation today, in a fair show of Bearish strength and it all adds up to a significant period of Bearishness at a minimum or a full on final drop. Remember this is a purely technical analysis without deep fundamentals knowledge and research that others claim. I have no interest in trading this so no trading bias either. The only bias I have is that I believe crypto to be a mania that will end in a train wreck. Although I do believe the developments in the coding underpinning it will leave to something else arising out of the ashes to complete the journey to a cashless society that Governments have been push for some time now. As is often the case with new technology, the originators and early adopters will not be the ones who benefit. So I present this as an alternative to the hype.

The view from the Daily chart...

DX is fast approaching the bottom of near term support. There are a few additional lines of support below but most significant for me is the Daily Chart channel line. A confirmed break of this opens the Bearish floodgates.

Early days but current price action may be setting up for a further retrace to close the recent price gap around the 6500 mark. I would ideally like to see that and a turn back down to consider adding to my current crop of Shorts.

Looks like EURUSD has just poked its head above the previous high (Brown 1). A break through the associated resistance zone should bring up a test of the Weekly Triangle resistance line and related overhead resistance zone. A break of that should offer a significant rally.

Somewhat similar to USDCAD, GBP has made a Channel breakout and current retest of the breakout zone. Can't declare it as failed yet and we could see another small dip before a rally away, which also probably requires further USD weakness to trigger. Wonder what EURUSD and DX is doing...?

Nice short term drop through a potential ending diagonal (narrowing channel) with a failed retest. Might need a push on from a Bearish USD to stimulate a lower low. There are a few support zonws below to clear before this one cranks the handle.

The case for a USD bearish retrace is growing, though still not a conclusive turn yet. The upper resistance levels (lower for EURUSD) are consistent with a Big picture Flag formation, a breakout of which would signal a rampant Bull market for USD. However before that I am projecting a bearish retrace to set the rally up. The shorter term channels look Bullish (Bearish EURUSD) but if you look at the Monthly Charts you can see that Flag channel, which is thus far not broken. In addition to the signals I have posted on recently (see above and on relevant USD pair threads) recent price actions describes a series of failed tests of this Flag. 3 failed attempts to breakout in fact, which is often a signal of a capitulation and turn (the third attempt is often successful if a breakout is on but the reverse is true of a failure). Shorter term charts have offered some early entry point already but I wont be sure until I see a break out of the Daily narrowing channel on DX (Weekly on EURUSD).

At the moment the wave B turn looks set with a EWT1-2 small scale follow up retrace and turn (double bottom). The market has poked above near term resistance but ducked back under. Remains to be seen if this pair, and other USD pairs make a sustained breakout. If they do a medium term retrace of some significance is indicated. Long way to go yet but for AUDUSD and GBPUSD this would be a wave C, strong with few pull backs of significance.

Nice break and failed retest of the short term resistance zone (not forms support). Still some way to go to clear near term resistance that could act to send this pair back down yet again but once again the indicators are aligned to a rally. How far and how long, time will tell.

EURUSD and DX seem to be well on the turn. Is GBPUSD about to join with a channel breakout to the upside? Good EWT count for an A-B-C to wave B turn. Wave C has a nice clean 1-5. PMD at the Wave B turn point near the Fib 88%. Channel is parallel style with good touches and decent prior pivot points (before the last major turn).

My short term alternative scenario has triggered with a higher high BUT price still remains within the Daily chart Triangle consolidation. I am still tracking a turn and break out to the downs side on this pair to set up a much longer term rally. There is very strong NMD on the Daily chart and a good price action set up for a bearish move. This matches my current views that USD (DX) will go through a medium term Bearish phase and also that Oil may go through a short term rally. I am full Bearish Oil long term and Bullish USD long term, which is why I believe any Bearish move on this pair is counter trend. However, IF USD breakout to the upside in the coming days then this pair will rally hard as Oil drops. That is my alternative scenario. I remain open to trade either eventuality.

Excellent Retrace allowed me to get in with additional Short positions yesterday but I have cashed in the lower ones because I am anticipating a short term retrace (gotta fund the account! And manage exposure risk!). The market has entered a zone of significant long term support/resistance (see Weekly chart), which could provide the impetus for some relief rally action. Obviously a breakthrough of this is significantly Bearish. Also there is a price gap above, which I would expect to be closed. There are therefore 2 retrace rally top targets: 1, the top of the Gap; 2, the next resistance zone. At this stage I would not expect a carry back all the way to the Daily channel line but it is possible). Looking at the Daily chart I believe I have resolved my channel conundrum (there were several strong candidates for positioning of lower channel lines as price moved down). It looks to me like a classic parallel (equidistant) pair of channel lines (or 2 parallel channels if you prefer). The first breakout was the critical one where we saw 3 failed lower channel line retests. The second saw a capitulation of the Bulls with a breakout and retest. Given this price action, and my related indicators, I now firmly believe Oil has entered the Bear market phase I was tracking since the wave 4 (or Flag) top back on 25 April. I wasn't able to catch that top but I was ok with that because I knew there would be a significant retrace rally, which carried to about where I expected (circa Fib 62% and more importantly an exact hit and rejection retest of the Weekly chart lower channel line). Now that I have confirmation of the turn my strategy is to pyramid my existing Shorts to the bottom. So sell the rallies but don't get sucked into selling at the bottom of long drops is my mind set. Patience to wait for rally tops is the key to not getting burned by FOMO.

EURUSD dropped to the Fib 88% retrace level and a potential channel breakout failed retest and has since rallied quite hard up through short term resistance. Strong PMD at both the wave 1 (blue) turn (on a spike pin bar) and the recent possible retrace turn.

Rally progressed on to a Fib 88% turn but at a lower high so far. Now looking to break back below my Monthly chart Flag resistance line. If this does break and close back below this line today (end of the Month) then the line is still valid and that potential USD bearish retrace is still on. I wonder how a period of USD weakness would impact the markets?

apologies appended the wrong chart.

Bit of a relief rally in play just now. Nest stop prior resistance and then let the price action tel the tale. I think we will see another rejection and fast move back down to break nest support but another test of the longer term resistance trend lines remains plausible so care is required.

The trend is indeed your friend, "Until the bend in the end" Amazing how many trends end short of the lower (or upper lines) when they turn. If you wait for a final touch oyu are sure to be left behind. The safe bet is to wait for the upper line breakout. Following a trend does not help with finding the turn, you need other techniques. Following a trend is only really useful when you know (yes know) the trend as turned for the long term. USD may have but I am not yet convinced and until I am I will seek the retrace turn. If it drops through key support, on all major pairs then I will swing the other way but we are not there yet. Current price has stalled and not yet broken key support. GBPUSD and other pairs are further from key support and also at key turning points. Next few days will tell the tale I feel. When you consider where the lower low is on EURUSD, it is not that big a bet in terms of exposure...

The Bear continues, for now, but wait, is that an end of market rally I see? Often it seems that the final hours are indicative, especially as we close on the end of the week. Whether valid or not I can't help feeling we are due a bounce before any major drop. Last few hours may be signaling a bottoming out, early days but let's see. USDJPY, of late in lock step with stocks, has also put in a bounce. A weakening Yen may drive some buoyancy overnight in the Nikkei and then who knows what tomorrow will bring... With most people assuming he Bear is upon us and trade negotiations with China are the negative catalyst I am minded to expect the opposite. Funny how often the markets so this...

Silver is providing a better set of indicators than Gold for me at present, and is a more lucrative market to trade (more risky too therefore). The precious metals are still conforming to my road map, and all 3 of my scenarios remain in play (2 Bullish, 1 Bearish). For me the Bearish one is not a strong scenario, unless you believe in a continuation of the Bull market in stocks for the next few years, which I do not. With Oil looking Bearish, and stocks too, I think it is only a matter of time before the precious metals Bull triggers big time. Maybe the trigger will be a USD bear move short/medium term? Precious metals do seem to be acting more in concert with currency just now than as a safe haven. I think the latter will be what drives the Bull out of the larger time horizon consolidation but short term it could be USD weakness that kicks things off. That also means I am not yet convinced we have seen stock indices capitulate but if they do then Precious metals should explode up.

No sure what you are getting at @PandaFace, can you clarify?

As with all the relevant pairs the DX is also at a critical juncture with another test of the long term resistance flag line and currently (unconfirmed) a drop away on NMD.

GBPUSD also at a critical turn point, last chance really save for a double bottom. PMD is good for a turn.

EURUSD currently testing the Fib 62% support zone with a good EWT 1-2 retrace pattern and PMD.

USDCAD continues it tortuous consolidation with lots of whipsaw action. The price action still looks like a complex retrace trapped in a range to me but this market has arrived at a critical juncture this morning with a short term double top just posted. If the market rejects a breakout to a higher high then the retrace move remains intact and a sharp drop should ensue. However a breakout would indicate that the wave B bigger picture retrace/consolidation is not yet done and more upside is on the cards for a while. This price action is not surprising given the current dithering of USD (DX) and Oil weakness. This morning we have seen a bit of a short term rally on DX and significant drop on Oil, bullish for USDCAD. With Oil looking set to drop further and in a sustained fashion a Bearish move on DX is needed for USDCAD to drop from here. Interestingly DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD are also are critical junctures for a potential trend change for me. Should resolve soon enough.