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cryptotrader

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cryptotrader last won the day on April 27

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  1. Interesting point of view @Mercury - however I think the analogy is slightly tenuous. Arguably bitcoin and other blockchains such as ethereum et al, is the same as investing in the TCP/IP of the internet boom. This isn't like investing in pets.com - this is like investing in the underlying framework and protocol of the internet itself. Ordinary people aren't using crypto - also true, however you can't deny that adoption and integration isn't growing exponentially. Hardly anyone was using computers or the internet when you had to type command lines rather than use a GUI. Adoption takes time, but given the number of invested actors and the current trajectory it'll happen at some point. People can also buy at 0.00000001 BTC so to think it's a whole product isn't really the point. You often hear the saying 'if you don't believe in bitcoin, it's likely that you don't really understand bitcoin'. Whilst overly offensive, I do see why people say that. I think a lot of these propositions also fail to miss the point of what we're talking about here. They're all going off at an angle ... we're not arguing "Bitcoin is the next store of value / replacement to USD" blah blah blah. What I'm saying is this is what moves bitcoin price. If you're a trader, and a technical trader at that (I never really see you post fundamentals nearly as much as technical analysis), does it matter what the asset is? Just it's price, it's price action, and it's conformity to your models? Whats your Elliot wave / technical view? And whats your conviction? Have you places a short if you think it's going short?
  2. you're right - correlation of two unrelated things is entirely accurate way to judge value.
  3. Thought I'd do a little copy past from one of my earlier posts given we're hitting some recent highs and seeing a significant rally in 2019. As I said this draws on a previous post I made on the bitcoin 500MA post here. What moves the price of Bitcoin? It is a truly truly truly inelastic asset. When gold goes up, people start producing more. When oil tanks, people don't pump as much. Even housing and infrastructure will be able to scale up or down depending on demand. Crypto however has a fixed amount being created which is mathematically restrained and can't be altered. When demand shifts people will gobble up the inelastic asset and supply demand curves will react accordingly. UPDATE: still think this is very relevant. Liquidity is thin. Honestly - don't just take my word for it - have a look at the global volumes. All it takes is a $100,000 dollars odd and you can move the price of some of these assets a hundred dollars or so. Thin liquidity means that prices can move very quickly either way. At the moment we are in a downward trend, but as soon as that turns and people jump on the bandwagon again ... well, we've seen it happen before. UPDATE: Not as much as prices are higher so the same amount of USD value won't hit the exchanges in the same way, liquidity is better in OTC venues which is where the majority of Crypto switches hands, exchanges have better order types and order routing these days as well. Lots of 'risk off' groups as well - algo V algo buying and selling giving false liquidity. Still, look at the book. Thin-o-saurus-rex. Hold. Become rich. Simple. EVERYONE knows about a mate, or a mate of a mate, or at the very least an article somewhere talking about buying crypto, holding onto it, and becoming rich. That's the way things are. It's happened over the last ten years and now the world has it in it's psyche that it's fact. Those who hold wont sell, whilst those on the sidelines are just waiting to get in. UPDATE: still the case, if not even more so. Bitcoin halving event in 2020. Over the last two halving events BTC prices have doubled. Again, this is all we have to go on, but people think that it's happened in the past so it's sure to happen in the future. Wait for it ... we'll see parabolic once more. UPDATE: was early on this one - but it'll come and i think we're heading for 50k BTC. ETF city. People want it. It's coming. It's just a matter of time. UPDATE: this has happened to some extent in certain markets. BTC values soared. ETH is looking for the same - futures and ETFs are argubly still on the cards because exchanges and ETF providers are all private or listed these days and need to either keep an eye on share holder value and capital growth. They can either - a) increase prices (tough), b) increase flow (tough), c) add new asset types to create new revenue streams (easiest of the three). What are your thoughts? Lets get a thread going...
  4. The next correction is going to be catastrophic - and based entirely on what these central bankers have already done to our market. Quick wins pushed by politicians from the '07/8 crash which have resulted in a **** ton of illiquid sovereign bonds (think Woodford on a global scale) and all the monetary policies being used to prop up an economy. we gonna get **** up
  5. interesting view on this. I've always thought that cryptos are completely unrelated to other asset types which is why they're so difficult to price. Everything else has the inter-connectivity between themselves (Fed IR effect USD 'value', which knocks on to USD denominated assets, which leads into equities, re-positioning etc) but always thought crypto is a world unto its own. Linked to cost of production - electricity, CPU costs etc.
  6. Looking at the ratio things need to change for the ETHBTC ratio to hold at 260 SATs. ETH is currently well under performing. At the 400 level you see at the peak, assuming BTC current price, ETH would be looking at 500.
  7. are they not already tho?
  8. Which means if you bought at any time other than those 87 days in the 10 year history, you'd be making money. BTC $50k within 18 months. Whoop whoop. Set your alerts.
  9. change SDev you can click the numbers in bottom left of chart to do this.
  10. i don't get it. How is there any basis in that price action?
  11. why do you put your name in your thread titles when everyone can see you've posted them ?
  12. really flirting heavily with that 8k mark but last 5 sessions isn't holding. turning point, or a little consolidation before the next leg up?
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