HMB
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Posts posted by HMB
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Very interesting THT. Just went short, stop at 11425. In this case, my hypothesis is mainly narrative-driven, supported by my interpretation of recent price action.
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5 hours ago, Navarone said:
Uncertainty. The state of Victoria including Melbourne went into it's second lock down around 7th July and is still in it.
Ok, thank you
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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:
2 x MAs of your choice sloping and in order is a good trend indicator.
Sure we maybe in the start of a downtrend but 4 bear candles doesn't make for one.
understood - thank you!
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7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
sure, but was that not a period of down trend in which case you should have been looking to sell the indicator rally peaks not automatically buy the troughs
okay, and what tells us that we're not in a downtrend now?
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16 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
Just looking at the NASDAQ daily chart and as for all the US indices daily chart traders dip buying since forever is the play. Well highlighted by the Williams Percent Ratio indy here;
please correct me if I'm wrong, and of course it depends on the horizon, but didn't give Williams %R quite a few false signals in Feb/March?
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not following ASX very closely... why has it under-performed so much...? given in particular the relatively strong China recovery...? are you seeing reasons for breakout to below 50% retracement..?
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Chart looks to me like there is some probability that NDX entered a down-trend. "Fundamental" Narrative supporting that would be easy to construct... Bearish price action in last 30 minutes before cash close yesterday looked interesting to me. Also absence of stop hunting above the 1pm EDT high (maybe Wall Street scared of more Softbank unwinding...)
ECB today. Will try again to wait till NY afternoon and if there's no major break through or other dramatic change of conditions go short with stop above that level. Before that will do absolutely nothing. Exit criteria to be determined around time of entry, depending on the situation then.
At around 18.5% below ATH we'll probably get Wall Street increasing efforts to prevent a "bear market"... but that's for later consideration
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30 minutes ago, HMB said:
raising the stop to 11515
closed at 11366
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1 hour ago, HMB said:
short NDX (DFB) earlier - at 11429.7, stop at 11485. minimum size
raising the stop to 11515
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went short NDX (DFB) earlier - at 11429.7, stop at 11485. minimum size, so like 30 quid at risk... probably a mistake given the weekly loss limit is already hit - however new risk is less than 10% of that... also logged in half an hour earlier than planned - and the only reason I managed to wait that long was because I decided to drive through rush hour traffic first to practice managing emotions... seems driving occupies my mind enough to mitigate the trading urge... in summary I guess progressing towards minimum targets with some way yet to go..
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11 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
Hi, just skimming through this but realise what I would deem to be a problem in that there is no real technical plan behind the trades but rather relies on rationalisations, the problem there being is that the markets are not often all that rational.
I try to dissuade people from having a bias and instead just follow the charts. If you have a bias then look for a trade and then look to rationalise/justify it you are going to be right just often enough to keep you playing but mostly losing, because after deciding you want to trade you can rationalise anything if you set your mind to it.
I prefer to just look for a chart setup that repeats itself and don't tend to worry about the whys and wherefores.
NAS just rejected the daily pivot (same as Dow) but found temp support at the old resistance level from the weekly chart.
Thank you! Yes, I thought something similar today, but wasn't able to express it as clearly as you did! Indeed, once I have an idea about what's going on, I also am more likely to spot "patterns" that "confirm" this idea...
I'm still looking for ways to combine technical and fundamental considerations better. Your observation and recent days suggest that starting with the technical part might be the superior approach.
One could have asked weeks ago, why the NDX is outperforming that much. Maybe one would have concluded that it's not only Robinhood and stay-at-home narrative, but also some large investor(s) buying calls en masse and forcing delta-hedging dealers to create a "vicious spiral"... admittedly, probably a long shot, but I think the general lesson is that it might be useful to question the "mainstream" narratives and consider alternative explanations, when it seems a stretch for the former to fully explain market moves...
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11 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
there was an interesting report from Reuters 5am that Softbank, in spite of losing $15 billion capitalisation, did not want to be seen as short term traders suggesting they were not going to automatically collapse all their positions.
thanks! just logged in an read it. I agree with you, think that's good reasoning. likely they still have significant positions, and don't want to hold their options till the time value is zero. plus they likely have made enough money already with that trade. NDX chart looks to me like 38 fib (also long period of oscillation around that level yesterday pre-market) maybe seemed like a logical level to unload some more, but then again I was pretty wrong yesterday
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34 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
Indices try a second attempt at a bounce
obviously conditioned by the action since Thursday I'd call this another set-up of retail by Wall Street to prepare for the next round of tech sell-off before the 50% NDX retracement level is reached...
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given that 23.6% fib breakthrough worked so well indicating the end of the correction... looking forward to initial "stabilization" above the new 23.6% fib today (don't mind if I round this to 25%, do you...?), and major sell-off later..: (not trading this, though, just looking forward to watching only for a change...;)
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...started wondering if it was hedge funds catipulating and starting to reduce their NDX shorts last week somehow played a role... probably nonsense..:
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Loss limit for the week hit on Tuesday. Why? Because Monday was a US holiday...
Still in the "pre-automation stage". Still skeptical about being able to fully automate and also still have doubts that that's ideal. Ready to admit, though, that it might well be "second-best", in the sense of optimal in reality because the ideal cannot be achieved.
However there's also working on character flaws... logical first step seems to me: learn to always be able to not to trade at all.
Target for today: don't log into the trading platform before 2pm EDT...
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...funny how one gets conditioned by the market... exorbitant valuations in NDX were obvious, barely explainable by low rates and massive Fed printing... yes more profitable than 1990, but still obviously extremely highly priced... now that was before Covid... then the Covid crash, then the Fed prints more... and all recovers till June 8... but Dax, RTY, NKY etc. stop then, move sideways and eventually slightly higher, but NDX adds another 30%... because Apple has suddenly invented the iphone? and Microsoft released Windows? Or Tesla built an electric car..? Oh yes, Amazon - we all buy a second kindle now and order every book twice because of the pandemic..
But no, I didn't get it. The conditioning had already happened. NDX must rebound after a 5% drop... because then it would have only outperformed the rest of the world by 20% in two months.... exactly the amount of time it took me to believe the craziness...
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39 minutes ago, dmedin said:
No, I was referring to myself on 15 min timeframe
OH yes, it is like an addiction - break free if you are able to...
Think you mentioned that in another post - about the mental exhaustion that comes from waiting for opportunities... think that's very true , in particular when one trades a lot intraday ... thinking about ways to avoid that, e.g. only short scheduled sessions... think I'll try that - being logged into the trading account only 2-4 pm EST/EDT
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th
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Just now, dmedin said:
if you are able to
nail on the head
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thanks for your feedback!
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4 minutes ago, HMB said:
You too?
10 minutes ago, dmedin said:Flying by the seat of my pants personally...
or you meant I do in your opinion? yea. you're absolutely right. maybe the "outing" here helps me to be more conscious about it. but I think it's simply weakness of character at this stage. probably taking a break, quitting smoking, losing weight, getting into a regular exercise routine etc. would be necessary. I'm kinda exhausted from the frustration, but on the other hand used to it by now. strange journey...
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using the last 60 for a new long NDX (future) stop 11025 - for lack of better ideas...
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At least if we close here, it's a proper close to close more than 10% correction. never trade NDX too aggressively against the overall intraday trend before a STRONG reversal and don't start before 2:30pm NYT... (think I had that written down somewhere).
NDX
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
lowered stop to 11240 (70 points below entry)