[Global markets September preview: Fed, China and inflation]

Yes, September is a creepy period for the markets.

If we assume we are already in a recession since 2022, by definition, then this "current recovery" is a dead cat bounce. 

China is a big deflationary problem.

So are the Western countries with their MASSIVE HISTORICALLY HIGHEST DEBT LEVELS, as companies with big debts begin to fold under the higher equilibrium of interest rates that had been artificially been kept low for years by central banks.

Japan has its massive problems too.

An interesting period to the end of the year.

 

[Debt to GDP Ratio by Country: State of Global Debt 2022]

The "Debt to GDP Ratio by Country: State of Global Debt 2022" article

highlights some crucial points.

But I wonder if these Debt-to-GDP figures by governments are reliable, as often accounting rules and practices varies and fudged by use of assumptions.

Most central banks have proven to show they either do not have good applicable skills in the achievement of long term stability, or the theories they used IS THE PROBLEM, ALONG WITH THEIR ASSUMPTIONS. It is, with them, always a roller coaster ride.  And, they did not even see the recession coming, until it was upon us, or someone pointed it out ( to those they listen to ), that it is in progress, before the rest found out. The 2007 recession, for example, where almost everyone was thinking and claiming a great economy, as even when the markets had already started to fall from their all-time high of that time, months later the very big fall occurred.

QE's really served to do the opposite to the intended goal. Not surprising since the money supply was violated by over-use, or is it abuse?

Maybe it has been some generations past now when private economy, industry and banks use to handle their affairs without government interference. Once upon a time there were no phony laws passed with the aid of bankers wanting "easy and relaxed financial laws", and help with bail outs to save the top banks and big companies when they fail ( as in 2008) or "free" subsidies.

if they fail, whether its the external event that brings the critical trouble, or its by their own mess created, their CEOs and executives failed to plan for such occurrences and use prudent financial practices. After all, we have had many boom and bursts and shown the need to take it into account. Yet, NO cushion of cash kept aside for the rainy day by many companies, instead reckless binging on debts. Central banks happy to encourage such practices too, thus creating an unintended future potential spiralling domino effect collapse. 

Politicians too weak to confront this very problem at their feet. Perhaps the current culture of appeasing the public to spend, spend and over-spend in their 5-year term, and the confused blind belief in the central bankers and economists by pushing aside the traditional prudent practices and personal responsibilities of individuals, companies and bankers. Private industry use government as a punch bag or for "free money" to bail them out when needed.

EVERYONE HAS FORGOTTEN THAT GOVERNMENT, ONCE UPON A TIME EVERYWHERE BALANCED THEIR BOOKS ANNUALLY.   BUT APPEASING POLITICIANS, AND BANKERS, HAVE VESTED INTEREST IN EXPANDING DEBTS, EACH FOR THEIR OWN PURPOSE. GOVERNMENRTS ARE THERE TO GOVERN, TO SEE THAT GOOD AND JUST LAWS EXISTS, ARE USED, ETHICS MAINTAINED, MONITOR GOOD PRUDENT PRACTICS AND ARE UNDERTAKEN BY INDUSTRY, NOT CREATIVE ACCOUNTING, NOT BE OVERLY-INDEBTED AND BAISC BUSINESS / FINANCIAL GUIDENCE USED.

IF THEY CONSIDER ALL THIS IS TAKING PLACE, THIS FELLOW HAS GOT IT WRONG, THEN THERE SHOULDN'T BE ANY BUST ISSUES ANYWHERE, SHOULD THERE?

WOULD YOU FINANCE, TO ANY DEGREE,  A COMPANY WITH MILLIONS TO TRILLIONS IN VALUATION BUT HAVE NONE OR LITTLE CASH FLOW, NO PROFITS EVER, AND EVEN HUGE DEBTS? 

WOULD YOU FINANCE, TO ANY DEGREE, A SPECIAL PURPOSE COMPANY, THAT DOES NOT SAY WHAT IT WILL USE THE MONEY FOR?

BANKERS SEEM TO BE HAPPY TO ALLOW IT, ECONOMISTS DON'T SEE THE PROBLEM WITH THAT, POLITICIANS APPEAR TO BE BLIND TO THE ERROR OR FLAWS IN IT, AND FINANCIERS AND INVESTERS ARE WILLING TO GAMBLE WITH IT.  SO WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

MAYBE THER IS NOTHING WRONG AT ALL. NO FLAWS. MAYBE IT IS JUST ME WITH A SENSE OF "SOMETHING WRONG HERE, SOMEWHERE" FEELING. DO YOU HAVE A SIMILAR FEELING?

 

[Article 16: Why Triggering it Risks an All Out UK-EU Trade War]

Business anywhere need stability. In N. Ireland the same is true.

As I see it the E. U. should not over do the obsession of applying oppressive conditions with the U.K & any of the UK's territories that were part of it pre- joining the EU. And then when she left the EU it hen honor her rights fully.

EU obsession to demonise the UK in going free of EU, & behind the scenes pushing its allies in the UK to cause chaos or confusion through the media has wasted much time in not creating friendly relationships after the divorce.

Getting Ireland to use N. Ireland as a leverage via special protocols for trade , or Spain desire for Gibraltar, or the English territorial waters as their right  to use for fishing, etc... ONLY DEMONSTRATES THAT OTHER EU NATIONS HAD BEEN THINKING OF LEAVING TOO (AT LEAST THEIR POPULATION HAD).

The EU has acted as if they are afraid to grant Britain them to regain full Self-determinism and a level playing field, for various reasons.

The U.S.A & the E.U. SHOULD REMEMBER THAT the British Empire had began with good ideals as had many past civilisations (e.g. Roman), namely that to do TRADE WITH OTHER NATIONS AND MAINTAIN GENUINE FRIENDLY RELATIONS. It was ONLY after bad & corrupt practices were allowed & greed over ruled common sense, fair play and not effecting justice actions among its own ranks that the dwindling spiral  of its Empire became lost (same with other past Empires too).

Obsessive control gives good control a bad name. Good control merely requires the above being employed for fair trading, justice actions  and trust. Bad control demonstrates destructive ploys that does neither side any good.

Britain has the right too use Article (as does the EU).

The EU should tell its Nation states to stop some of its nations in craving to ignite its old past dreams of grabbing , N Ireland or Gibraltar, or fishing rights in British waters through political mischief and complex twisted  laws to try to score brownie points.

Article 16 is not the real problem but the political the elite causing it via their faulty methods to keep some leverage over the UK.

Instead It would be easier and far better to create a level playing field, take responsibility for its own financial & economic problems, and maintain a friendly relations with the UK. After all we were already friends and allies. Lets cut out the friction from the EU.