THT
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Posts posted by THT
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and to confirm about expanding triangles and failed trend lines:
Today in the ETF CNX1 of the Nasdaq100 Index
Entry = Gann's Lost Motion target is swing high @ d - It just can't get much simpler
Remember Gann said - "Sell Double/Triple TOPS and Buy Double/Triple BOTTOMS and buy on secondary reactions" - I think this chart shows those pretty self explanatory
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6 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
I see ok thanks for that. I have to admit to being very one dimensional up to now and am only using spread bets but as you know it's more about whether it works consistently more than anything else.
Unrelated, but I know you're a big proponent of Gann's work. What do you make of the fact that apparently he was not a rich man and did not make his primarily living from trading but writing about it. Given hi is methods seem to work I don't really understand that. Unless he gave it all away of course.
OMG you've now opened up a can of worms lol
Right - I've studied Gann for the past 10 years and I had the exact same question 10 years ago to which I have yet to work out an answer to! He reportedly made $50mill back in the early to mid 1900's - yet his son was forced to work for a living as a broker, and has said his dad never traded! Then you have his Ticker Interview in which an Independent accountant watched him trade in 1909 ish and made 92% win rate from hundreds of trades in 30 days and turned $1k into about $11k - I might be out on the exact figs but you get the gist.
So I don't know - I'm sceptical and that's only because i know some of his stuff works
Gann was also an Astrologer - he definitely used planets and astrology in some of his course, I know that for a fact and he was a freemason who use esoteric thinking - geometry etc
no-one in the world has been able to recreate his 120 wheat trade of 1909 - so either he never revealed how to in his works or he has and no-one so far has been clever enough to see it and from 1909 he never repeated it either! - you'd think if you could predict the day and the price a market would reach, you'd publicise it every week
What I do know is that part of Gann works - form reading especially and some of his time cycles
The thing about Gann was back in the 1900's he was talking about the markets being multi-dimensional so he was light years ahead of most people today, as its been proved they are
I use a lot of gann as its simply what the market does, I've developed my own other methods too and I've just mixed them over the years - but you can get way led by Gann if you get consumed by thinking he wrote the secrets to the markets in his courses
Gann interlaced Price with TIME - but in my experience doing this with gann's conversions would shove loads of lines on a chart, some would work others wouldn't - for me risking money on that is too hit and miss and too imperfect
Saying that - Don't poo poo Gann - This is a very simple use of Gann interlacing price into TIME - as you can see it hit the March 2009 low to the exact day! All we did was convert the low price into TIME (the following 2 cycle dates are simply 2339 calendar days from the previous)
Whether you use this or not is up to you (I don't) - but you will find is that the market is interlaced with mathematics both in time and price and a lot of it is AFTER price has moved which is useless to trade from/with - so as a trader you need to either completely ignore it or research it to death and use only those factors which work
Also you will find that TIME converts into PRICE levels
SP500 Index:
PS- in the chart above you will notice the date of 15th August 2015 - I've published in my Time Cycle thread the first chart which shows this plunge date which shows a date of 18th Aug 2015 - these are 2 differing methods but when they confirm a date with each other its high probability
Now if the Dec 2021 date proves a hit you'll have 3 dates forecast in advance that caused good turning points in the main index market - all from the low price of the bear market of 2002 - with forecast time turns 7, 13 & 19 years PRIOR - just that alone should make people stop and think markets aren't doing what they think they're doing!
PPS - you can add Fibonacci and geometrical ratios to price and time levels and lots of them hit
Now you don't need to know anything at all about Gann or mathematics to make money from the markets - all you need is a tried and tested method to catch reversals, breakouts or a simple trend following method
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53 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Hi there,
Sorry this question isn't specific to the thread really but i just wanted to ask, is everything you talk about in reference to spread bet trading? I.e. you're using leverage. I know IG have other instruments but i assume its mostly about spread betting.. And again i assume thats what most poeple are using when they're trading.
Thanks
Everything - I use the same methods and thinking for trading in spreadbetting, my ISA, my SIPP - the vehicle used to trade in is not that important its making money consistently that's important
The only thing i need to think extra about in spread betting is its not a real market, therefore its not as clean price wise, entry or exit as it is trading a ETF or share inside my SIPP or ISA
Because spreadbets are a market made up by the spreadbetting comp you have to factor in slippage and moves that are out of the ordinary, that does not mean the game is rigged or they are trading against you, it just means you have to take account of the spreads and whatnot
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I'm generally not a fan of trendlines, but I am of these - again using with market structure and formation
This is the DAILY chart of EURUSD from 2013
Lots of info on the chart and here
This formation doesn't happen that often, but often enough to profit from - again another under used technical analysis method that actually works!
Right on the chart below we have an Elliott Wave 5 wave - i DO NOT trade Elliott Wave - I just want to show you how some other TA merges into form reading - I only noticed the EW 5 wave AFTER I'd seen and labelled the WM formation
Notice on the WM formation the Gann Secondary reaction (Elliott Wave 1-2), then the lazy last leg up of the W to form a "twisted" W, then a V to form the wave 5 top, then we get another W which is coming towards us and the last leg is stunted then a A to finish it off - so lets focus on the WA part coming down:
From the wave 5 high to the swing low point e is an Expanding Triangle - If you'd of been trading the trend line you'd of missed point e as it failed to reach the trend line
Swing low point c would have been a spot on trade
I've marked on the chart swing low points a and c - at point a you would not have formed the trend line but you would have seen it coming down into point c, so you could have bought at the trend line or used Gann's "LOST MOTION" method and bought when price rallied back up through point 1 price level
As we can see point e failed to reach the trend line - so using Ganns "LOST MOTION" trading method you could have gone long at price level made by the low at point c
WD Gann wrote about these formations (WVAMWW) etc way back in the early 1900's - as you can see they work just as well now as they did back then because of the simple fact and reasoning that HUMANS make buying and selling decisions today just as they did way back then!
Bonus material:
Notice how the pivot points are often (not always) just exceeded and then price reverses, shown by the arrows - WD Gann called this "LOST MOTION"
this is most likely the only time ever i will show you this
Draw a straight horizontal line from each pivot point (I've not shown this line) - sometimes the market just squeaks through and reverses, other times it exceeds by a lot and then reverses - THIS IS WHAT MARKETS DO!
Take the big swing down to a low in July 2013 - Notice it went past the previous swing low then burst upwards - just imagine having a buy order at the prev swing low pivot price point at 12800, the stop would have been 35 pips and the target the previous swing high at 13400 - a 600 pip return for risking 35 pips! That's a whopping 17R (17 times risk)
some swings aren't worth the risk - but some are
Gann's mantra was "Make big gains on small risks" - this and the other Gann methods I've shown you in this thread are the reason Gann managed to turn out 1000's% growth per year by READING the market and trading with leverage (Gann used to risk 10% of his account per trade - I'm not that brave)
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Happy Birthday to me, Happy Birthday to me.......
Another example of a Technical Analysis method that actually works
Here's a position I got into on my birthday late March - GOLD market ETF LONG
Swing file line shows we have a Gann Secondary Reaction at the LOWS, with tick up in RSI - Can't get simpler than this, caught the swing low within 1 bar of the turn point
Then weeks later all the "noise and chatter" about Inflation - those in the know knew Inflation was set to be an issue back in early March!
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contact Nicholas at prorealcode site, he should be able to help
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Rock and Roll
FTSE100 20 trading day cycle performs AGAIN
Low on day 18 and 19 (19 is the KEY) WITH 2RSI Bullish reversal from the oversold zone
Cycle catches the low once again for more profits
"I thought markets were random?" - THT says "Yeah Right LOL"
Remember the next 2 dates are bang around the forthcoming Time Cycle mentioned in my Time Cycle thread
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12 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Thanks THT, yes well i do estimate my possible returns by estimating a target price. Of course if the market doesn't get there then i've got several smaller rolling losses to deal with and i've not figured out yet how i make up for that if it turns out i'm wrong. I'm currently not using a trailing stop for simplicity and the sake of not adding another variable into the mix. However, I imagine that only having a binary situation where the market either hits the stop or target is too simplistic in a fluid market..
Hi - there's nothing wrong with having target level(s) - If it works it works
Just remember as in chart 1 above, if the market is going UP then it will create a series of higher lows and higher highs and one can trail the market up by simply using the swing low points - because if the market is trending upwards it ain't going to hit a swing low point until it needs a rest, changes degree or the trend is changing
That's a major law of the market (vice versa for it going down and for sideways ranges overlapping of swings)
The blue dots on chart 1 show you the times the presumed swing low/low didn't work out
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2 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Thanks for the replies guys. I brought this up because i try to use tight stops, but due to inaccuracies in finding the turn point i need several attempts to get into a position. Sometimes the running loss can be 1x + ATR so i kind of wonder if the tight stops really make sense. If i'm not estimating the turn well then maybe i should just give it more room and use the multiple ATR approach. The problem i have with this is that i hate seeing the market go against me and with an ATR multiple obviously you're giving it room to move against your entry point by quite a lot, but in theory if it doesn't get to the stop you don't realise a loss whereas with tight stops i certainly do at least temporarily until the market moves sufficiently in my favour.
Another comment on using ATR, you never move the stop down right? only up so if the ATR increases, you just ignore that until it reduces again and which point you start trailing the stop up/down again?
That's the decision you have to make as to how you trade - if you are catching the turn you can use a very tight stop - I know this for a fact as its exactly what I've done for the past 10+ years
If however you aren't very good at timing the turns then you will get stopped out often and maybe a wider stop suits you better - there is nothing wrong with taking 3 attempts to get in on a move if the move returns excellent R return - I'd quite happily take 3-5 attempts if the R value returned 10+R - you will know whether this is possible through the expectancy of your system/method etc
If you take 3 attempts to make 1-3R return then taking multiple attempts is not wise - maybe trading the breakout rather than the turn may suit best?
Again it comes down to the trading method - whether it works effectively or not
I've proved in my "How to Win" thread that you can catch the turning points of the market with a tight stop of 1 bars range and within 1-2 bars of the swing point
Re trailing stop loss - it is NEVER moved downwards, only upwards or kept flat if market action dictates (for long positions)
Another technique would be to using the trailing stop ATR calc on a higher time-frame i.e. trade on the daily chart and use the weekly for the trailing stop etc - but this is just the same as employing a wider ATR calc on the daily chart!
There is NO perfect system here for trailing stops
I think we all feel that - again its something you have to build into your system - you either take a profit at xR and hope it stops and reverses thereafter or give it room to move at the expense of giving back a chunk
Leaving room for the trade to operate becomes much much easier when you realise no-one in the world can predict exact price levels (believe me I've spent years researching and testing) - one time you'll set a target and it'll work perfectly, the next time you'll do the same and miss out on multiple profits - just got to find a balance that works for you
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19 hours ago, u0362565 said:
Hi all,
Do you think this is a reasonable approach to setting a stop loss? I've read in various places including van k tharpe's book the idea of using multiples of ATR to set a stop loss whatever your time frame is. The issue for me is that 2-3x the ATR of a time period seems like a massive stop but perhaps to others its entirely reasonable? I tend to have my stop at the low but of course this is an obvious location that could be at risk.
YES - If it works for the trade then yes and for trailing too
Best thing you can do is look at your proposed trading method - calculate its win ratio expectancy etc and also visually SEE what price bars do when it works
When traders don't know what exactly their method does/doesn't do - they have wide stops, which eats profits
It all depends on the trading method - for example if you're catching reversal points/turns in the market then if you're right the market will NOT trade past the swing low/high point, so that's where your stop would go at worst case
Trading the reversals in an uptrend - WHAT WILL THE MARKET NOT DO IF YOU'RE RIGHT?
It won't trade BELOW the majority of swing low points
So for that strategy placing a stop any lower than the prev swing low just doesn't make sense - so a stop using ATR multiples might not be that good/clever on that type of strategy - but buying breakouts using a ATR multiple might be
This is trailing 20 period ATR of a factor of 2 (multiple of 2)
So you need to decide on the trading METHOD, work out what it DOES and then BUILD - Entry, Stop, Trailing etc to the method when it works
As you can see in the example above if you wanted to catch the big trends then you'd need to use a bigger multiple/factor of the 20 period ATR or you could just BUY when price moved up through the ATR line
Good luck
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8 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
Essential 45 min video summary of the whole sorry tale that is covid from Dr John Lee Professor of Pathology.
See it before Youtube bans it.
Said right from the start if the NHS had 1 million ICU beds and ventilators then the govt would have gotten up to 999k people in hospital and in ICU and then rolled out the panic, lockdowns etc - At some point some one is going to work out the £ cost to under 70's and the economy and then work out if letting granny avoid contracting a flue like bug was worth it or not
Some people will have had their lives wrecked at age 20/30/40 etc all because the NHS only had [originally] 13k ICU beds and ventilators
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Hello All
We are closing in to one month to go until the final Time Cycle of the year
Remember we have NO IDEA that it will work - it could be a mega volatility period or it just be a flat squib affair with an average correction
Context we have to remember IS - In 2016 the overall market changed from down to UP - TC's act and behave differently in EACH of the 2 types of Time Cycle!
As we can see the expected and published in advance TC date for Feb caused the USA market to stutter and stall
4th June is fast approaching.................Lets see if/what happens
This is the sequence for the 4th June TC
As you can see I first published the future dates way back in 2017 [yellow date section on the chart]
I applied the Time Cycle sequence/spacing from Sept 1998 as that was when the last UP cycle ended and the down cycle started - Other cycles [not shown] actually start and end the appropriate cycle
To see this scroll up to the very 1st chart posted in this thread - the RED and PINK TC's dates caused the top in 2000 and the 2015 LOW
As we can see knowing this TC we could have predicted the 2003 LOW and the 2007 HIGH before the plunge into 2009 (2009 could have been predicted by another cycle)
This particular cycle works best during the DOWN TC phases especially the 1st 2 occurrences of the cycle during that down cycle as can be evidenced below
I suppose if you take one thing away from this - its the end date of the UP cycle - if you've been paying attention, the RED Time Cycle in the 1st chart in this thread lands AFTER the thick BROWN TC line/date [but not by much] - so watch out for the ultimate TOP in that year!
For the record - the THICK Brown cycle lines = DENOTE the Time Cycle that CONTROLS and dominates the USA stock market - this is what causes the UP/DOWN 16-19 year stock market cycle - all other cycles shown sync into and within THIS cycle
As usual don't trade if you can't form a logical trading decision, as you're responsible for your own trading results not me.
Permission is not granted to replicate this post at all
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LOW came in on trading day 18/19
This is perfectly acceptable in trading - just because we have a 20 day low cycle in play does not mean it has to come in dead on trading day 20 - I like to see the low point on trading days 19-21, so we have a 1 day window either side of trading day 20
Also clarity over EXPECTATION - I'm expecting an assault on the most recent swing high of a few days back, to be able to make money from - BUT technically its ALREADY done the low expectation! Lows happened, its printed, the low is in - the swing high happening right now in price COULD be the swing high and we head off to print new lows - as traders we have to have this in our mind as a possibility as remember no-one knows exactly what is going to happen for certain
The "Edge" is we know that there's a 20 trading LOW cycle in the FTSE100 Index that in the past has been exploitable from a profitability point of view - ask 100,000 traders and maybe 500 (0.5% at best) of them will know and understand a) about this and b) how to exploit it properly for profit, but the vast majority of would be traders will be absolutely totally oblivious to realising that a) cycles even exist and b) cycles drive the markets
Not shown is the 2RSI in the oversold zone with a tick upwards in that date range
Remember just because someone can't make Technical Analysis work does not mean it does not work - As I am showing you quite clearly it does work if used correctly - I'll concede that most of the TA stuff out there does not work for you to make a living as a full-time trader, but the bits that do work, do allow you to!
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Ok - following on from the last chart
One thing you MUST remember is NO-ONE knows what a market is going to do exactly, we are GUESSING and using BEST GUESSES based on PROBABLISTIC outcomes
CNX1 - The ETF of Nasdaq100 - did exactly as it said on the tin
We had:
- The Triple Bottom
- The 2RSI tick up on the formation of the Triple Bottom
- Then the pullback
Then we got a DOUBLE top formation, which for those inclined offered a shorting opportunity:
- Double Top
- BOTH the 7RSI and 2RSI showed on the close of the bar labelled (RED) 2 - negative divergence (Lower high reading in the RSI) compared to red bar labelled 1
- Break of the low of bar labelled red 2 = go short with a stop 1 penny above the high of bar labelled 2
Seeing these "swings" is much much easier by adding a swing file to ones charts - Remember also most chart patterns have logical places that INVAIDATE the trade - that is where your stop goes!
Over 110 years ago - WD GANN said "Buy Double/Triple bottoms and sell double/Triple tops" - That advice still works today and I can attest it beats lots of the touted trading methods out there
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:
Witnessed this phenomenon in the indices for years and written several threads on it, the keenness with which retail traders try to second guess the start of a correction, no thought to wait for any confirmatory signals, just get in there and wait.
But the thing that's always bugged me is where on earth do these guys hang their stops? If the chart is continually making new highs there is no prior chart structure to lean it on. Do they even bother with one?
It's not a loss until you book the trade.
LOL - I think most traders have done that before I certainly have until I learnt not to guess
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:
the 76% retail traders holding short positions during a bull run for the big indices is fairly typical and roughly equates with 75% of retail traders who lose money.
Yep I hate to say it but its nice to see the retail crowd the opposite of my positions at times
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Trade what you SEE not what you think - markets can be irrational far longer than you can be solvent
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As fletch says - if you have a SIPP you "might" be able to place them in there rather than an ISA
I made the decision 10 years ago to only trade ETF's in my ISA after experiencing similar problems back then with a different ISA/SIPP provider
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Pro-Real charts are likely to have this as a screener on pro real code site as they tend to have virtually everything that can possible be thought of indicator/screener wise
If not then Nicholas is really helpful and will build (might charge) for you if not too complicated
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23 hours ago, Courage said:
A Better Way To Go About Technical Analysis
I have never been a chartist. I knew nothing about moving average crossovers, chart patterns, candlesticks and oscillators. Matter of fact in all honesty I still don't. One of my role models is Anton Kriel; the man manages almost 100 million in assets, runs an online academy, manages 1000 traders and is active on tweeter he is simply a beast! In his educational talks to students, technical analysis is the last 10 percent of his investing process and he only knows basic patterns ! I did that at first ( support and resistance patterns) and I was relatively successful before using other indicators and TA , didn't do too bad but returns were not out of this world either. I did however I noticed that recently, my losses began to accelerate whilst using them. Not that there is anything wrong with indicators per say, its just that there is no standardised indicator that can capture the behaviour of price at granular/deep level ( for me at least) .
I have always been obsessed with tinkering with things and exploring ideas about their inner workings. Problem with doing this with a live account is education in the form of losses can be psychologically draining, Taking losses with large positions whilst experimenting, comes with sleepless nights and short tempered flareups with family members. This is why I thought there has to be a better way to do this. A way that bears the least emotional and personal toll. So after 1/3rd of my account got wipped-out I turned to math. More on this later.
In 1854 there was an outbreak of cholera in London. Nasty disease . It was thought to have been spread through "miasma" ; which is some sort of vapour or smell like entity or something. But a man called Jon Snow was skeptical. His skeptisism was so pronounced that he measured and mapped out all sightings / points where the disease was reported and came the realisation that the water supply in soho was the source of infection. The story goes that he marched into soho and broke the handle of the pump that supplied water to the area. Soon after the pump was destroyed the infection stopped . Upon investigation, it was realised that the water supply was within close proximity to a cesspit hence the source of the cholera outbreak.
Jon was able to come to that conclusion by deliberately measuring , mapping and taking copious notes on the cases of cholera the he came upon. This is part of my process. I measure and map EVERYTHING that is relevant to my portfolio/ positions /ideas views outlook forecast etc. WRITE S&^$ DOWN . If it has a number, write it down somewhere. A note book is preferable but write it somewhere on something. Get into the habit.
After writing things down calculate the % change on a historical basis. i.e. how has this number changed vs where it has been in the past ? it doesn't have to be organised at first, that will come later but get into the habbit. Be cognisant of the numbers and how the numbers change. It could be price, economic data points name it . Just write it somewhere you will be surprised the insights you come up with yourself before they become the narrative.
Top things I like to have in my note book ( I have at least 30-40) is the prices or change in prices of common macro drivers:
1) The Dollar
2) The Move Index ( bond volatility)
3) The Vix ( spy vol)
4) Commodities / Oil
5) VXN ( nasdaq vol)
6) OVX ( oil vol)
7) Major market Indexes.
These are the things that you should at least be watching. If you notice there are a few volatility drivers up there. That is deliberate. Before I explain why let me dive into a personal anecdote from my time as a child. I skipped school a lot as a teenager and as a result my grades deteriorated , as function of that my annual school report was abysmal as a function of that my mother seeking answers came to the school and found out that I was skipping classes which ended in her beating the dogS%$% out of me in from of my teachers and friends. That embarrassment I felt was the 6th derivative of a bad decision I made 6 months prior. 1st derivative was me skipping classes 2nd was deteriorating grades 3rd was my mum getting pissed off because private school is expensive 4th was her coming down to school 5th was the beating and 6th was the embarrassment .
As an investor you have to start thinking in derivatives ie what will be the knock on effect if x happens ? I always did this when I thought about running my business but I never thought to do this when looking at prices. Which brings me to volatility . VOLATILITY IS THE FIRST DERIVATIVE OF PRICE. This is why it is very important to keep it on your dash board. The standard deviation of volatility or the VOL of VOL is the 3rd derivative of price. Understanding how that derivative behaves has gotten me out of a lot of trouble and put me on the path to slowly making my money back. Did you know that since 1999 the S&P500 price moves have a 96% correlation with the calculation of volatility for the Implied volatility of options that are at or near the money in the option market? Well I didn't know this either ..... MATH! . Understanding volatility is crucial as a risk management tool.
It is the keys to the city.
I have attached a paper below that you can all read to get more understanding so that you can build you own models. My model is built around the principles in this paper.
Good Luck CA
WD Gann said in 1909 that all the markets are all Mathematical points of force
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On 02/02/2021 at 16:24, steamedchicken said:
Hey THT,
Thank you so much for the well-thought out response! Really appreciate it - it's nice to see that there are people like you out there still willing to lend the newbies a hand. I'll definitely have a good think about what you said. So far I'm currently on breakeven
Missed this - you need to make sure you quote unless it gets lost in the room
Governments have tried to manipulate FX markets and failed - there will be "cartel" trades between the banks, it will never be admitted as its Illegal, but I'm willing to bet it happens occasionally
That being said - Markets aren't doing what you think they are doing, people think that after x years of experience you can say markets going to do this and hit that price level there and then reverse to x and then.......It just can't be done
Trading is exceptionally hard - whatever you choose to trade - trading requires probabilistic analysis and you need a method of trading that actually works (most of the **** out there on "official" sites just does not work in the real world I'm afraid
All IG do is pool the best FX rates for us to trade - the reason people lose is because of themselves not the market and that is most likely that they are doing something materially wrong or their method does not work - once you find a method that actually works, the manipulation is from YOU against the market
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7 minutes ago, Courage said:
o clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.
Yeah it's best to get in as close to the low as possible
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9 hours ago, Courage said:
correction the VXN @23.15 and CNX1 @57054
There'll be a stall in price or a pullback - its impossible for a market to continue posting higher low and higher high bar after bar - the laws of the market don't permit it
It could be a Gann pullback, a sideways correction or a more severe pullback - but it will happen - 20 years of intimately studying the market attest to that
I might be misreading your comment or you my post - I'm not saying that's it for the rally - I'm showing a technical analysis method that actually works as people will be trading TA that doesn't quite work and wondering what's going on
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Another one that works!
Gann Triple bottom, up tick of the 2RSI on the signal bar from below the 25% Oversold level - gapped at the open the next day (can't be avoided) BUT the trade is up 6R
Market is ETF = CNX1 which tracks the Nasdaq100 (I trade this through my SIPP and ISA accounts)
PS - Markets CAN'T rally at that ANGLE for long! Pull back is approaching
Some TA actually works - most doesn't though!
Safe trading
THT
THT Market Education - How to WIN
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
Yeah its a tough one - there's very little material out there on Gann, that's why all the guesses and whatnot - Gann got purchasers to sign non-disclosure agreements which is probably why not much of his work filtered through and the fact that back then he was charging a fortune for it
Then you have the vendors who have spent years researching Gann, figure out that they can't repeat what he did and then start selling his "secrets" to claw back time and money they investing in their pointless research, so over the years a lot of merchants selling their wares have muddied the trading world waters of **** information.
The thing is basic Gann works, some of his Time Cycle and time theory works and I know for a fact that expanding on this through my own work and research has proved that certain aspects of time and price can be used for predictive purposes - obviously all with the aim of exploiting the markets
I don't know this for a fact but I reckon Gann was one of the first traders to publically identify the stair stepping nature of trends with higher highs and higher lows - whether he made $50 mill or not, he definitely knew how to trade
I'm one of those people who look at a piece of machinery, see's what it can do and then wants to learn HOW it does it, not everyone is like that, so some will get my work and others might not.