THT
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Posts posted by THT
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EVERYTHING on this planet and in the universe abides by the laws of vibration and harmony - EVERYTHING, including man-made markets
Where there's a 20 day cycle, there also exists a 10 day cycle (half/50% or 180 degrees) of the 20 day cycle:
Where there's a 20 & day cycle you'll also find a 5 day cycle that synchronises harmonically with them to!
All combined:
DON'T fall into the trap of thinking EVERY peak and trough can be identified - they can't and you don't actually need to - just catching a few can be really worth while
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15 trading opps, 14 won, 1 loss! 93% win rate - since the March 2020 crash FTSE100 Index (NOT Including March 2020 or June 2021)
Notice this last date - price low 2 days LATER than date - this is the LATEST its been in the past 15 months
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Update to the CNX1 ETF chart above = Expectation of market direction worked
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Looks like it's a flat squib affair for the SP500 - I'm away early next week, but I'd give this until Tuesday (max 3 weeks after the physical date) to do something otherwise I'm marking it down as a failure
Which is not bad, out of all the TC's this one is the one to be most concerned won't work, especially during an UP Bullish major cycle, which is what we are in, but the expectation was for the market to react as per May 2012 as shown on the Internal cycle harmonic chart in the post directly above
So unless we get a 7%+ correction from the highs next week - I'll simply log this as failed - remember we trade the market NOT the Time Cycle
The small correction into the actual date is NOT good enough to say that was it! - We should be able to see these corrections/upswings clearly on a monthly chart, which means they should be of significance
I'll hold off publishing the next Time Cycle just in case something happens next week
SP500 Index Daily Chart: data to Thursday 17th June 2021
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GOLD
in Commodities
and Gold Puked at 10 year resistance line
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23 minutes ago, 786Trader said:
Suspect corrections when they come will be in the order of 10-20%. We may have 2 such corrections by the end of the year. Suspect one is due around now. Chart action suggests overbought for equity and commodities are correcting as I write. Recovery is also highly likely. Re Oil, correction will not be long lasting. May I suggest the price of energy will remain high for the foreseeable future (return of $100-125 barrell ?). As will the spectre of inflation, as contrary to the esteemed Jerome P, I maintain inflation is more than "transitory", more a feature of the next few years.
Pretty optimistic predictions for S&P 500 there, as there is an inevitability of a significant correction of more than 34-55% by 2025-26. However, am prepared to work with a guide that suggests equity will relentlessly rise for the next Gann cycle.
Re Inflation - If you look at the last time Int rates were depressed for a long time was 1929-1951 (2% ish) 22 yr period - this covered the 1929 crash and world war 2
The stock market cycle that landed 2000 was the same as per 1929 - dow crashed 80% in 1929-1932, Nasdaq100 same in 2000-2003, hence the same chart price formation
At that time Int rates were slashed to combat deflationary pressures - in both cycle periods - IF and its always an IF because we don't know for certainty, since 2000 that 22 yr low Int rate cycle has repeated then we are getting pretty darn close to it ending, this has been on my radar since 2012 - time will tell but I think on the Time Cycle thread i posted about the 4 year cycle in soft commodities which is expected to arrive next year too, so I can see all the factors for inflationary raring off building already, as governments and central banks are always reactive and behind the curve, it would not surprise me to see oil up there as you say forcing central banks to lift int rates to "combat inflation"
I've long called 2021/22 for Int rate rise - be interesting to see what happens if anything
SP500/USA markets - "should" if it follows the past 225 years of sequencing - obviously this needs to be monitored along the way, but if it does, SP500/Nasdaq etc top out 2034 for the next 17 yr deflationary cycle to begin
Big corrections = great buying opps
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21 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Thanks both, with the time cycles i struggle to believe that these big events can be timed. But if in history it shows that every x years something big happens then that's surely more than coincidence. The problem i have with that is i don't understand why they would repeat like this-i know a lot of things repeat in markets! But with crashes i cannot see any logical reason why they would conform to this because aren't they triggered by unexpected world events and how can they be timed, perhaps its my lack of understanding of how the markets work. Anyway its certainly interesting.
I often look at forex markets out of interest and i just can't see the patterns at all, they look all over the place to me but i have upward trends ingrained in my retinas so maybe no surprise!
Thanks for the article Caseynotes, some good general tips, nothing particularly groundbreaking there but does at least make you realise everyone is basically using the same tools and very few have higher levels of insight.
99.999% of people don't understand how the markets work, let alone the TC's, but they still manage to make money from so don't dismiss your knowledge - the markets are doing things most people haven't a clue about - I'm not prepared to divulge the cause nor the mathematical formula to work out the TC's, if I did you'd be able to see very clearly the repetition - I know exactly where you're coming from, I'm the most sceptical person you will ever meet about the markets, so I know its hard to understand or believe
They repeat because humans buying and selling still make the same decisions now as they did hundreds of years ago - human behaviour is very predictable, even in different economic times
There's always a reason attached to plunges so the media and fund management world can say this caused X but they never tell you in advance - I've published elsewhere in advance the dates so to dispel anyone challenging I did it after the event
Forex - EXACTLY - they are highly erratic - they work to different Time cycles than the stock market, which is why they act differently - but the overall laws of the market regarding swings, price action etc still apply and can be exploited to our advantage
The 50% is the balance point - the laws of physics apply here - markets respect a lot of the laws of physics and mathematics in certain ways, which is why the TC's work etc
It happens on all time-frames - If the market is abiding by the laws of physics for an up trend then if price crashes down through the 50% level of the prev range/swing then it should revert back up through that level purely down to the laws of motion and physics
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You need to get hung up on them, because they happen - I know for a fact that during 2007-09 bear market you could have traded long and made money, because I did it, but the easiest route was shorting and down
Get a chart WEEKLY of any forex market or commodity - go back as far as poss and notice the big turns/swings - much more volatile than the SP500 - there's a reason for that
I always say anyone who's making a packet from trading or Investing on SP500 etc go have a crack at the forex or commodity markets - the stock markets natural direction is UPWARDS - especially buy and holders, fund managers would get ripped apart on the forex + comm markets
OK - Its totally Impossible to know EXACTLY what the SP500 is going to do on a daily/weekly basis, but it WAS possible to know that a) 2007-09 was going to be a bear market before 2007 even arrived and b) that the market would stop around the level it did. But this is ultra advanced and very few people are bothered about it
I've written a thread on Time Cycles on here - it covers what the SP500 is doing in terms of TIME - if you understand it and think about it, it will put you ahead of 99.99999% of traders out there, because these really big corrections and crashes do not happen out of the blue - they are predictable and forecastable with high reliability years in advance
Look at the chart below - think about what I'm saying:
In 1909 WD Gann said that markets always seek their gravity centre, the half way point - that's the 50% level to you and I
Traders go on about fib levels - the 50% level is clearly much more important a level
What if you KNEW 1974, 2003 and 2009 should be low points? What an opportunity both long and short!
This is why I researched and spent hundreds of hours on Time and Time Cycles for - I missed 2000-2009 because I didn't know what I know now, but I know when the next ones are and I have no plans of missing them
These are key once in a lifetime turn points that don't happen often
So what I'm trying to point out is that on the stock market the big plunges like 07-09 aren't the norm, but they do happen with very regular intervals, that will catch a lot of people out during certain cycles that the market moves through.
with regards to identifying bear markets - yes using a MA to say price below this level is bearish, but it's already bearish as it approaches the level if using price formations such as lower lows etc
You don't need to know what I've discovered about time to be able to trade successfully - I was just intrigued if it was possible to be able to time the really big turns etc as I'd prefer to to know if it was
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"The Trend is your Friend, until the end" - but all the "experts" out there fail to tell you how to work out when it is over! (they don't know the answer to that)
You just need to devise some form of method that you're happy with here
Depends what you're trading - if its the SP500 Index then its natural bias will always be UPWARDS - due to the mechanics of what it represents and all that pension/Investment fund money sloshing about
If you have a long method that works - then it shouldn't constantly show up to trade during a down period, you might get caught out once or twice but we all do
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On 09/06/2021 at 09:31, Caseynotes said:
BBC SAYS ONLY 350 PEOPLE ATTENDED THE MAY 29TH LONDON PROTEST.
The blatant lying from govt and MSM as well as global institutions such as the WHO, along with social media deplatforming anyone who produces evidence of the lies has been going on for over a year.
Is there really anyone left who still can't see it?
Meanwhile, yet another great lie is that you need to be vaccinated even if you already had covid ...
''Thus, recovered COVID-19 patients are likely to better defend against the variants than persons who have not been infected but have been immunized with spike-containing vaccines only. ''
Senator Rand Paul @RandPaul
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I remember the BBC reporting in front of world trade building 7 saying it had collapsed when it was clearly still standing and then hours later it "suddenly" collapsed - Sept 11th 2001
David Icke did a great publication on that "terrorist attack" which lead to UK/USA forces invading Iraq and afghanistan, along with implementing onerous checks at all airports since - 20 years later we still haven't had another plane hijacked and crashed into anything, probably because if it had it would prove that aviation fuel can't melt steel structural joists, or bring a building down in a vertical fashion as per a controlled explosion
I'm yet to be convinced on Covid, but it absolutely fits in with the totalitarian tiptoe Icke says is happening and fits in being an absolute valid reason to vaccinate the entire globe
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16 minutes ago, 786Trader said:
Don't think the bull run has ended, just a correction is very much on the cards. Timing of which suggests we have some room to manoeuvre but would not be surprised at all if the market tops out within the next couple of weeks, or anytime around 21/06....Suggest it is more a profit taking exercise than genuine full scale correction, which could/should be later in the year. Only mentioned this as markets have been red hot for months and swimming in liquidity, sooner or later some of that will be taken out in the form of profit taking. Suggest it may be a 10% er or even more. In the past have purchased ETFs that short the market and like to buy the Vix at less than 20, as it's a fair form of insurance (Imho). Psychologically, the oil markets have a problem with WTI being over the $75, which at current rates of progress is due to top out sooner than later. Just mentioning it.
Yep - If the major cycle working out since 2016 repeats as its done for the past 225 years then the USA Indices are UP, UP,UP until the mid 2030's - corrections will be nothing like 2000-2009 corrections
Although chart is up to date - I wrote the below pre 2015 (can't remember exactly when) - as an absolute min I'd expect 22-25,000 for the SP500 to end on in 2034
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Fed meeting this week
Markets still Bullish, But..............
Lots of factors are in place that occur at tops/highs
- Time Cycle zone - rising market into it usually tops out for a half decent correction of some degree (However of all the TC's I track this one is the least predictable in an overall Bull market - Reference 15th May 2012 for the last Internal date this TC arrived)
- Weekly Indicators are in the OB zone and in perfect place for reversing for the weekly chart to register lower price bars of some degree
- Daily Chart (shown) - possible Double top + daily Indicators in OB zone
There's also an Elliott Wave count suggesting a 5 wave top due - not too bothered about this though
IF a correction happens, then its a great buying opp, but as of yet there's no evidence the bull runs finished
I've got an aggressive exploratory short 1 penny under the black line (yet to be triggered) - SP500 Index
Got a nice Triple TOP formed on the Nasdaq100
* Note on TC's - Sometimes they arrive dead to the day, other times a window of tolerance has to be observed - we're NOT trading the TC, we're trading the price action caused by the TC, which should form formations relevant to the direction of price or likely direction and the TC's are NOT 100% accurate, they are highly accurate but not 100% which means some of them won't work out as expected, hence why we don't trade them blindly
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19 minutes ago, filber said:
TC where is it
TC where is it ?
Hang on I'll just look under my desk, nope not there, maybe on the roof, nope, maybe the shed....
The TC's that I track have a 90 odd % hit rate, that means not all of them are 100% guaranteed, this could be one of those times, we'll have to wait and see.
This particular one has a window of 2 weeks before and after the date of 4th June, so there's this week and next week yet
The expectation is for the market to correct to some degree - once a corrections is underway it's tradeable, not before and if this corrects then as we're in a long term bull market it should find support on key angles and levels but again that is not 100% guaranteed, which is why we don't trade blindly, we wait for confirmed set-ups then take the plunge
It could just force a flat boring sideways market - don't fall into the trap of it having to happen, if it happens and we get a decent correction it should be followed by a decent tradeable bullish section too
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12 hours ago, u0362565 said:
Yeah the list sounds familiar, your first comment is an interesting one as I feel like you can't say anything about what you think you can make over a given time. But if you can stick to a system and the market doesn't behave in ways you don't expect I guess with time you can given the data, although you only have the past to go on. But as we know history tends to repeat itself.. Thanks
History does repeat, definitely
Your main job as a new trader is to work out as fast as possible what does and doesn't work and what the market typically does - My How to Win thread provides a massive shortcut to what works in the markets, I don't detail everything, but the basics are definitely there especially for trends.
Trouble is there's all these experts out there with flashy websites and youtube channels showing you perfect examples of trades to help them sell you something and then low and behold you try it and it doesn't quite seem to work
If the market behaves in a way you don't expect its either rogue price data or you're trading a method not suited to the cycle section that's unfolding in front of you
We can't control the cycle, the price action or the market, we just piggy back along until the ride is over
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If you get your numbers then you can also then work out how many trades to have to make per year to achieve £x or xR or x%
and then you can see if you can achieve that off the daily charts or if you have to go lower time frames to achieve etc
Trading is all about the maths
I would for newbies or those losing recommend keeping stats and analysis as it helps you to understand things, I personally no longer do this and I stopped doing so back in 2012
The rules of trading are:
1 Lose money
2 Learn how NOT to lose money
3 Then you make money
4 There are no short cuts - If you're not losing money and have bypassed 1 & 2 the big one will get you its only a matter of time
Stats help you understand #2 & #3
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23 minutes ago, u0362565 said:
Hi all,
Something i'm struggling with at the moment which i'm sure depends on the individual but interested in other views. I enter a trade with a stop loss and profit target limit in place. This is often a large risk/reward ratio, between 5-9 : 1. As i don't currently trail my stop there are only two outcomes in theory. However, what i have been liable to do is reduce my take profit target, and in the case of my last trade, my initial ratio was 8:1 but when i reached 6:1, i thought you know what don't be greedy and throw this away because in theory if the market reversed i'd then have a 1R loss. So what is my question.. I guess the main point is whether anyone should allow a trade to lose if its in profit 1R+? Logically it doesn't make sense to throw that away given how hard it is to make a profit in the first place and to not protect that might suggest you think you know what the market is doing, but to me i'm not sure you can ever really know that. To add some context i expect my trades to be open a few days, in this case i got to 6R much sooner so my time frame for the trade shortened as i closed it early and it moved further than expected in the time. In the end the market did move to 8R where my initial target was but of course i didn't know that with certainty so i didn't mind and that gives me 6R to throw away some other time
Probably the only answer is to keep testing and gather as much data as possible but when you don't automate your trades i'm sure thoughts like this often present themselves.
Thanks for any advice
First its crazy to let a 6R+ profit turn into a loss - this game is hard enough without giving large amounts back - therefore you need to work out some way to protect part of open profits
Secondly you need fathom out what the trade does when it works perfectly - if once its up 1R it continues up and doesn't come back to test entry level then once up 1R move stop to break-even and then trail
You could also consider trading multiple units rather than just 1 unit - i.e. 2 units say £5 a point, trade moves to 1R, sell 1 unit £2.50, move stop to break-even and then trail the remaining unit £2.50 and/or set target - this method banks a small profit if you're wrong, depends whether this is worthwhile or not on your win rate of the method
I would test, test and test, what the method does - then you will have the stats on it over x trades/years etc
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SP500 Index:
Weekly charts are Bullish, Daily charts are topping out on the Indicators - doesn't mean price will crash!
We're now INTO the week of the TIME CYCLE [TC]
As usual trade what forms/you see - if someone had a gun to my head and forced me to predict I'd say get ready for a correction of a decent degree in June
The action should be more prominent on the Nasdaq100, however if the TC works then it should force the SP500 & DOW too
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GOLD
in Commodities
WEEKLY Chart: GOLD
Very very close to the 2011 Price level
RSI in OB territory AND WEEKLY price advance is at an angle that can't be maintained, also Gann triple top potential close by too! - doesn't mean it will turn, but significant factors are in place for a pause or correction of some degree
Will the price level prove as resistance or not?
All we can do as traders is trade what we see when a confirming set-up arises - we don't predict - the 2011 price level has obliviously been a key level in the past year as price has failed to break permanently from it
The DAILY chart (bottom chart) gives you a view from the daily pov - I will be looking for shorting set-ups if price gets above the line and near those 2 prev double tops - until then though......
I've been long since the double bottom in late March/early April (as mentioned in my How to Win thread the other week) and will follow the market up until stopped out
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The 90's for me represented the birth of top drawer Dance music - Hacienda, Manchester in the early 90's - OMG the stories I could tell of a few celebs
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13 hours ago, eastside said:
I just wanted to add given many people have lost jobs due to lockdowns and resorted to SB trading full time and the industry sells SB product as tax-free to the public. therefore profits from SB are never declared during self-assessments.
The way i understand is if you do not have any other means of income other than trading AND you are winning substantial sums of money from spread betting, then you could be potentially/technically taxed on profits from spread betting. I say technically/potentially because when those large transactions leave a paper trail and get flagged up, "if" they decide to investigate its very easy to be singled out from the crowd. They could argue than your SB has become the main source of income or even act as insurance against your trades in shares account or cfd by using SB and therefore all should be treated equally for tax purposes.
ofcourse none of it may matter because hmrc may not care or have the manpower to go after small fishes in the pond.
Lets assume that did happen - they'd have to or should change wording to taxable - once that happens you then create a LTD co and trade for a living through that legal entity, if trading profits are taxable as they are with CFD's then losses/trading costs, commissions, spreads etc are a business expense to which you can offset against profits - I reckon 90-95% of people trading end up losing all their money at some point, that's a huge amount of losses to offset against taxation - I doubt they'd look at it which is why they allow it to be tax-free
This is why you should (when funds permit) have S&S ISA and SIP*P accounts - they are virtually tax-free and def tax free from a capital gains aspect
The only thing is inside them is you can't get much leverage as you're partially limited to what you can and can't trade - but if you build up a sizeable account, then the gains made inside ISA/SIPP* can be withdrawn as income (you can't access SIPP money until min age 55)
But you can trade many many things inside them just as you would SB'ing
This is why 95% of my Investable funds are inside my ISA and SIPP - and i draw my "income" from my ISA
*Income drawn down from a SIPP is taxable after you've taken the 25% tax-free cash - but the investment growth inside is not subject to capital gains tax etc
I used to be a financial adviser - you'll always be subject to tax rules, you just need to work out what's best for you
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1 hour ago, Sudu said:
Thanks a lot, would be great to know how to surplus into an ISA. It would be great is there any option SB to ISA. In my dashboard I can not see any option for investment. I have been questioning about share dealing account from customer service but they sent me a new form to fill for share dealing as a new customer.
I've got multiple accounts - my ISA isn't with IG - gains are simply withdrawn into personal bank acc and then from there make an ISA contribution up to the annual allowances
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1 hour ago, u0362565 said:
How do i find short time period price data e.g. 1hr over many years? The brokers only show you so far back, then you have no choice but to view past data at lower time resolution lets say. If you trade over shorter time periods how can you back test enough data when it doesn't seem to be available.
Not sure on that as I did all my back testing on daily charts which I was able to obtain data on covering many decades - but I buy in my price data and run it through my preferred charting software
I've never tried to back test with IG's provided data or PRT
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On 22/05/2021 at 23:46, u0362565 said:
Yeah I see what you're saying, I guess you only know once you have enough data to get some kind of expectancy and this is a bit like when investments show you how they've done historically.
Yeah, but you can easily gain that by back testing historical price data
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I wouldn't set targets - trading is psychological warfare against yourself - adding targets and required returns just adds to the pressure
If you have a decent method it will pay dividends and most likely beat the markets average returns
THT Market Education - How to WIN
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
It really IS that stupidly simple - the hard part as with lots of methods is how you play it and manage the risk
Sometimes though its not the actual, actual low it could be a swing low
A chap from the USA called Walter Bressert (Deceased) back in the 1980's published work on a 20 day cycle in the SP500 along with other things
Larry Williams back in the 1980's also published in one of his books on trading a 4 year cycle on the dow/SP500 that goes back 200 years with a highish win rate - Aug-Oct time every 4 years expect a low turn point in the market - 2018 was out by a 2 months - but you can see the cycle right there on the chart below
Note - The Dec low was a major Time Cycle expected that overrode the 4 yr cycle, so although it looks to have been a high/failure, the TC due Dec 2018 took precedence
Next line to keep an eye out for is Aug-Oct time 2022
Sometimes depending on the market you might have to work to part days which would mean running on intraday timeframes which adds complexity to seeing the cycles - so don't expect to run a 20 day low to low cycle on x market and expect to see it, some markets work off high to high cycles - but for the FTSE100 its a 20 day visible low to low cycle on a daily time frame chart as published
Again there's easier things to trade than this - I'm just publishing stuff most people aren't aware of, to show that the markets aren't random beasts that most people think they are - there's an order to them