HPbrand

Are you chasing the price after making some money and doubling down once it retraces from the high/low? Are you also over leveraged and need to close positions as a result? I have done the above countless times. If this is you also, take your own advice "Should have just held on to positions put in place at the start of the day". It's greed mate. We all have it. Why not try close all positions in the evening after each day and go and enjoy yourself away from screen? Or don't use too much leverage with open positions overnight if you want to keep them? You sound like a humorous chap so I do want to hear you in a happy and positive state.

Numbers.... Dow 19000 - 74% Dow 18000 - 52% Dow 17000 - 28% Dow 16000 - 9% As of 17 March 2020.

If people cannot use the current volatility to make money, then the chances are they will never make any significant sums in trading. The low is coming guys but also the fake rallies. I think I have a figure low to expect. Will share it once the probability is significant enough to be sure.

More volatillity, more daily limit halts please!!

So here we are, the 3rd week of March. The drop, the fake rally....I don't think we are done yet with visiting the lows. My assessment was below Dow 20000 sometime this month. How low below 20k is still up in the air. This is still very very bearish right now...which means there is still serious money to be made.

Who is this comedian?😂

When most people are wiped out of their trading accounts and surrendered.

I know its hard to believe, but > Dow 20000 is coming within weeks if not within days. There might be a sudden fake rally but going long right now hoping for Dow 28000 (or something ridiculous) is suicidal. Let's see if there are any contrarians.

Spreadbetting is not tax avoidance. If for a second HMRC thought more money is made banning SB and move everyone to CFD, they would have done so a long time ago. Losses on SB cannot be used to reduce your tax bill whereas CFD can. More people lose than win so if everyone moves over to CFD and starts to reduce their tax bills....

There is a reason why CFD only brokers out there. We don't want to pay tax on winnings to HMRC like everyone else but we have to pay it to someone else. Nothing is free unfortunately.

Are people starting to get more worried as we have reached the level I predicted? We are not there yet. More long positions to clear out. @cheviot What does your dog say on this one?

Following my comment earlier about trapping us traders, I decided to increase my short position for tomorrow. The trap is likely to come sometime this week where it shoots through the roof without giving us an opportunity to react quickly enough. Thus, just shorting because we feel comfortable will mean a margin call.

Probably not a good time to open new positions due to volatility. Should just rely on previous positions already opened to lock in profits if it goes our way.

FTSE anyone? US indices were out of action for a long period of time, so I got bored and clicked the sell button on FTSE not wanting to miss out of more opportunities. Never traded FTSE so I am kind of hoping it follows US closely. But so far, I'm stuck on a loss with this fella.

How is the market going to trap us from here? I put a small stake to bet on a rise tonight/tomorrow.

Good for you! I got the impression you went the other way.

Going long still?

Looking at the current bounce of the Dow, I suspect this is not the bounce to 30000+. Panic was created to go to only ~24600 this time. At what level will people start to lose hope and willingly take a big loss on their long positions? Close to my proposed number or even lower. But that would only stay very short term for the real direction of the Dow longer term is up. The coronavirus created a panic affecting all the GDP figures to be released later. Let's see if that would be the time to justify the big drop once again. In the meantime, I keep my medium term short positions and day trade the volatility.

I think you mis-intrepreted my intention or the meaning of what I wrote. My only intention is to make money trading. Being a hero or whatever else is irrelevant to me. I don't know anyone from this forum in real life and it's not my intention to offend anyone either. I wrote about Dow levels as a way to make sure that what I think is absolutely what I believe in. This is all public. I will be the laughing stock, like Mr Nenner, if I'm very wrong. Going forward, I will leave out the specific levels of indices I think has a greater probability of happening. Banter between individuals in forums should be fun and light hearted.

Everyone has their own view of where the Dow might go from here. My assessment going into March has not changed from yesterday despite testing ~24600 already and recovered to ~25700 after hours. We are heading for at least Dow 22000 guys. Anyone dare go long from here has to eat some serious humble pie - including myself if I am spectacularly wrong on this one. But I don't think so... The Jag F Type V8 looks like a nice car....😁😁

A very sharp decline is likely going into March.

Anyone thinking of going long most likely will be bankrupted.... let's see who the contrarians are.

Who in the world has so much time to spare?

You know what you are doing though, not everyone can think for themselves.

I think I have worked out the direction going into next week. 😀