jlz
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Posts posted by jlz
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I only wanted to post to trigger your OCD issues.
I know you like you to see your name against every post on the main page.
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You forgot to add a 6th option:
6) Looking for attention from other traders with sh*t posts
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This guys defines the power of compounding when setting up a risk model. I found it interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZxeTUJVUQg
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It should be under settings, you are missing that option from your menu.
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Regardless of being one of the best games I've ever played the soundtrack is perfect for creating a calm ambient. Maybe suitable for some traders?
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3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
20 years ago UK news was second to none, now most of it is not worth the paper it's written on, as for Sweden you'll be fine, look no masks...
Very nice, and here we can't even stay in the pub after 10pm. We should send this picture to Boris.
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9 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
you've switched from the BBC to the Guardian now for your news, J esus wept.
The stats are perfectly clear, covid is no worse than many other previous strains of flu.
There is no greater mortality this year in the UK because of covid than normal and the same applies to Sweden who didn't even bother to lockdown ...
I don't read news in English, they are too correct and polite for my taste. I prefer other languages. I just pointed the Guardian because they seem to be the funniest when it comes to attacking the conservative wing.
Can we spread-bet in Sweden? We'll need an extra coat but I am happy to move.
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4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
what does any of this actually mean? Covid is a corona virus, no one disputes this. The treatments are not controversial. How is someone catching a virus somehow a hoax?
As for BBC reporting, even their lifelong supporters are having doubts ...
'BBC isn’t telling us the full story on Covid
The corporation is sticking to ministers’ line that ‘the science’ supports their policy when the truth is far more complex'
Matthew Parris
Saturday October 03 2020, 12.01am, The Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bbc-isnt-telling-us-the-full-story-on-covid-h2xm35pmh
I am just using your leader words:
I know it is obvious, just wanted to highlight the fact that it is obviously not a hoax and needs to be treated very carefully. So your never ending posts warning us that "we are being played", some of them directly pointed to me are now challenged.
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Carrot-face , your supreme leader, has recovered amazingly from the non-existent virus.
This is the treatment he has received , apparently:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54418464
It seems a bit too much for a hoax, don't you think so?
Now, you regular citizen with tin-foil hats, are you going to get the same treatment if you catch it? Nah...
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14 minutes ago, HMB said:
Welcome. My first thought after watching was: "that's the reason for the whole Brexit thing..!"
yes, I am with you. There was a video that I can't refer to now (I forgot the source) that linked all the financial news prior to the referendum. It contained many things that are shown in this video as well as a few scandals like the Panama papers that involved the Tories. Brussels started asking for personal affairs of British politicians abroad and that didn't go well. One of the major points in the video was the attempt from Germany to move the City of London to Frankfurt a few years ago.
It is a shame that I can't link the video, it made very clear sense.
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6 hours ago, HMB said:
Thanks, I am watching it now. I should learn something.
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7 hours ago, dmedin said:
Who would have thought that Britain's 'greatness' was built on fraud and violence?
That is well known, one of the first subjects we are taught at schools outside Britain.
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You are right, but someone that asked the question in the first place wouldn't want the thread to be closed, so more people can add their comments, even if it is the number 26.
That is what a regular forum user would do. Someone that doesn't seem to be trying to meet a quota of posts.
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
So in summary, no retail traders are making money.
Case closed.
Let's keep it alive so people can see it and add their comments.
I
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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Here's some light reading for when you're not designing highly-profitable algorithms.
Thanks , Nuclear physics are flying over my head but I can see the sarcasm there. No one said that I am able to produce highly-profitable algos by the way. They are more survival attempts than anything else.
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17 minutes ago, THT said:
I understand where you're coming from
Are you willing to elaborate on what you do? - don't feel obliged to as - but purely from a technical and risk management based aspect I'm intrigued!
My approach is manly looking to minimise my chances to loose. I do not aim to make any profit so I look primarily at bet sizing to maximise the number of trades I can send. Reports from my backtesting showed that I can't predict any trade to be profitable so I just make sure that I have enough funds to try again if I am wrong.
I choose markets that won't make huge changes so I only trade in Indices. I chose those markets because of their natural inclination to stay in a range of values so my gains won't be huge but since the aim is to minimise loses they will work best for the algorithm.
The bet size will be the minimal allowed or very close to minimal with a small increment if the previous trades have been profitable. I have been trading with the minimal size for about a year now, and I don't see the size increasing any time soon, so we can count that the bet size is the minimum.
I do not use more than 30% of the equity at anytime. If the account reaches that value it will stop and will take loses.
I send trades randomly to both sides of the book without taking any criteria to enter, it only checks that there is a trade already or not to trigger another one.
It started with one Index and it is trading now in 5 indexes, any new market is being added if the funds allow the equity level to be below 30%.
I do not set stops as such at any level, the equity limit will trigger closing orders to gain the margin required back in order to reach that level of equity. So if there is any trade incurring in a loss it will close it regardless of the amount, the aim is to maintain the account alive to trade with enough equity.
Profits are taken following basic market volatility. This volatility is calculated every hour, so the "take profit order" limit will change depending on the market and its action. Since the volatility calculation is random, profits are random as well. Looking at previous trades they vary from 10 to 60 points the most.
The result is a very very conservative algorithm that yields small profits after "surviving" many losing attempts.
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Let me post it again, so people don't miss it and can challenge it if they wish.
Trading Systems are not profitable because they enter at the right time, they are because they exit at the right time.
Let's say you are going to write code and need to tell the algorithm when to enter. Do you think that you can tell a computer to follow an indicator? Does a computer have a sense of uptrend or downtrend? Does it understand when the market is reaching a "support" or a "resistance" level? Is it able to follow price action techniques?
Every developer that is using an indicator to trade what is really telling the computer is to enter at an exact point in time, that can be or can be not supported by the indicator. They don't really care when to enter because they cannot prove when they are right. They could just tell the algorithm to enter randomly and the result would be very similar.
All of those concepts that are part of TA including the charts they are based on are just visual entertainments for traders. They are happy looking at flashing colors so they can justify their entries in a market. You can remove your charts and indicators completely and your entries will be the same, random. If you analyse the number of variables that you need to remove randomness from a "chaotic random walk" such a stock market you will see how they are in the number of thousands. And you are going to tell me that you can justify when to enter in a market by following an indicator that use just one variable. Good luck with that. Your trades are still random.
Once you realise that you are entering in a market randomly, every single time, you start to realise that you need something way more robust than a MA crossover. And that is risk management combined with bank roll sizing.
There are many brokers that are "execution only" and don't offer any charts, simply because you don't need them to trade. The only reason why brokers like IG offer charts and indicators is because people ask for them. The very same people that are part of that infamous 80% of non-profitable traders.
There are many books on risk management for stock trading and they all talk about very similar questions:
- Why do you choose a market against any other to trade?
- What is your optimal bet size looking at your funds?
- Margin and its relation to risk.
- Leveraged products and its relation to risk.
- What is your risk at any point in time?
- What is your optimal exit? When would you take loses? When would you take profits?
They go on and on around bank roll management and risk profiles, and you won't see a singular reference to an indicator.
If you are able to answer all of the questions above your entry does not matter because your exit is covered, so you can enter randomly on any side of the trade.
Once you have achieved that level you can continue with game theory and its relation to gambling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory
If you follow that path you will never look at a chart again.
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Trading Systems are not profitable because they enter at the right time, they are because they exit at the right time.
Let's say you are going to write code and need to tell the algorithm when to enter. Do you think that you can tell a computer to follow an indicator? Does a computer have a sense of uptrend or downtrend? Does it understand when the market is reaching a "support" or a "resistance" level? Is it able to follow price action techniques?
Every developer that is using an indicator to trade what is really telling the computer is to enter at an exact point in time, that can be or can be not supported by the indicator. They don't really care when to enter because they cannot prove when they are right. They could just tell the algorithm to enter randomly and the result would be very similar.
All of those concepts that are part of TA including the charts they are based on are just visual entertainments for traders. They are happy looking at flashing colors so they can justify their entries in a market. You can remove your charts and indicators completely and your entries will be the same, random. If you analyse the number of variables that you need to remove randomness from a "chaotic random walk" such a stock market you will see how they are in the number of thousands. And you are going to tell me that you can justify when to enter in a market by following an indicator that use just one variable. Good luck with that. Your trades are still random.
Once you realise that you are entering in a market randomly, every single time, you start to realise that you need something way more robust than a MA crossover. And that is risk management combined with bank roll sizing.
There are many brokers that are "execution only" and don't offer any charts, simply because you don't need them to trade. The only reason why brokers like IG offer charts and indicators is because people ask for them. The very same people that are part of that infamous 80% of non-profitable traders.
There are many books on risk management for stock trading and they all talk about very similar questions:
- Why do you choose a market against any other to trade?
- What is your optimal bet size looking at your funds?
- Margin and its relation to risk.
- Leveraged products and its relation to risk.
- What is your risk at any point in time?
- What is your optimal exit? When would you take loses? When would you take profits?
They go on and on around bank roll management and risk profiles, and you won't see a singular reference to an indicator.
If you are able to answer all of the questions above your entry does not matter because your exit is covered, so you can enter randomly on any side of the trade.
Once you have achieved that level you can continue with game theory and its relation to gambling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory
If you follow that path you will never look at a chart again.
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4 hours ago, dmedin said:
There you go again with the bullsh!t ...
So all you need to make money is a 'risk management strategy'?
Tell us all about it.
TA is like a religion. If I challenge it the response will contain an insult. People cannot admit they have been wasting their time looking at flashing colours when they use indicators. You can call it bullsh*t but sooner or later if you want to be successful you have to develop your own risk management strategy. Then you will realise how much time you have wasted looking at those flashing charts.
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1 hour ago, THT said:
I've said on more than 1 occasion that the laws of probability and probabilistic returns have to be abided by to win in this game and I've said that you really need to skew R value well upwards of 2 for success
This sentence should be framed and hung in every trading room. But of course people keep looking at charts and indicators instead of developing a risk management strategy.
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2 hours ago, dmedin said:
Soo ... trading using the 'replay' function is totally unrepresentative of live trading.
What is the point of any of this?
Is it really just designed to get money off desperate people?
The replay button is useful at the last stage, when your algorithm has been tested against a large dataset of data. Then you can test yourself executing it and see what would happen if you are the one in charge of triggering every action.
Until we have lost and understood how insignificant are our chances to win, we are not able to see where we are against the market. The major problem is that we are stupid enough to think that we can beat the market when in reality we are playing a game that is way against us, and where we always have the worst cards with very small chances to win.
So your backtesting is essential to create a working ground where you can develop your style. An algorithm is not going to give you a winning strategy, it will only maximise your chances to win. But until you execute it perfectly, that technique will not yield results like it should.
When senior trades are telling us"control your emotions" , "be disciplined", "be methodic" , they are really telling us "become a bot", "behave like a computer". Backtesting can give you a view of what would happen if you were a bot.
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This is an example of how a genetic algorithm would find the best path.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL7tSgUpy8w
You can see how they trigger generations (Gen) with 650 cars each time trying to find which parameters are best to no to crash the car.
If you multiply 650 by the number of generations you will end with tens of thousands of runs. And that is to teach a car to follow a static path.
How many runs would you need to set up a trading algorithm? Since the market is a random walk and your space is not static, you need way more runs than the example in the video.
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A backtest is never going to give you a final algorithm with one run. You are defining there one run in your text. You need a least a thousand runs with multiple parameters. Even if you change the MA range values that would be considered one run, because you are changing one parameter. Different runs have different input parameters.
If you have time, read about how genetic algorithms work. They start being the silliest form of live and they evolve into a very complex entity by asking questions to themselves. The very same way a human being would learn through experience.
First you need to define your input and output parameters and make permutations between them.
Let's say your population is 10 markets and your input parameter is an MA to enter. Like you said.
From those 10 markets you can create multiple parameters:
- Time related: Start Date, End Date, candle time frames
- Price action related: High, Low, Open, Close, Volumes
- Account related: PnLs, Margins, Required Funds
- Indicator related: Value of the MA, Crossovers with price actions
- Exit related: Stops, Trailing levels, Take profit levels
Once you've got those set up you can change their values multiple times and compare the results.
Your outputs will give you a report that you have to analyse. From that report you will see which markets are more likely to give you better results for your technique and then you select the best of them.
You are basically selecting the best individual from a population, very much like a genetic algorithm would do.
Then continue adding more parameters to those markets that won the selection.
Eventually after multiple runs you will see the performance of your technique and if it is worth using it, then you can try it on the demo account just to see if when you are involved as a person you can get the same results. A person is likely to decrease the performance of the algorithm.
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What's your favourite part of the trading experience?
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
You don't think that your posts with trading view screenshots worth anything, do you?