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Oil Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Stronger Demand to Be Met with Limited Supply


ArvinIG

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OIL PRICE TALKING POINTS

The price of oil trades back above the $70 handle even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stay on track to boost “overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of October 2021” as signs of stronger demand are met with limited supply.

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR OIL PRICE: BULLISH

The decision by OPEC to retain the current course for crude output should keep the price of oil afloat as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) emphasizes that “world oil demand growth in 2021 remains unchanged from last month’s assessment, showing growth of 6.0 mb/d despite some offsetting revisions.”

At the same time, the MOMR points out that “in 2022, oil demand is expected to robustly grow by around 4.2 mb/d, some 0.9 mb/d higher compared to last month’s assessment,” and it remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will ramp up production over the remainder of the year as White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan insists that “OPEC+ must do more to support the recovery.”

In turn, projections for stronger demand may prop up the price of oil throughout the remainder of the year as OPEC and allies remain reluctant to push production towards pre-pandemic levels, and developments coming out of the US maykeep oil prices afloat amid the tepid recovery in crude output.

Oil Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Stronger Demand to Be Met with Limited Supply

Recent figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show weekly field production recovering from the disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida as output climbs to 10,600K from 10,100K in the week ending September 10, but the US remains far from the conditions seen prior to COVID-19 as weekly output reached a record high of 13,100K in March 2020.

With that said, current market conditions may keep the price of oil afloat throughout the remainder of the year as expectations for stronger consumption are met with indications of limited supply.

 

David Song, Strategist ,Daily FX
4 October 2021 

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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