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The Week Ahead On The Markets


MongiIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

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Week commencing 20 June

Chris Beauchamp’s insight

After a week of central bank interest rates, a quieter week prevails. However the UK’s CPI data means that inflation worries won’t go away. Global flash PMIs will provide an insight into the health of various economies. Corporate data is relatively light, but includes updates from housebuilder Berkeley Group and cruise line operator Carnival.

 

 

Economic reports

  • Weekly view

Monday

Juneteenth – US bank holiday – US markets closed

Tuesday

2.30am – RBA meeting minutes: after the last rate hike, these will provide details on potential policy changes in the future. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

1.30pm – Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (May): index rose to 0.47 in April. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (May): sales to fall 0.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

7am – UK CPI (May): prices to rise 9% YoY and 2.4% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): prices to rise 6.9% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (June): index to fall to -21.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

Thursday

8.15 – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (June, flash): German mfg PMI to fall to 53.7. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

9.30am – UK PMIs (June, flash): May reading 54.6 for mfg and 53.4 for services. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 18 June): claims to fall to 227K from 229K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

2.45pm – US PMIs (June, flash): mfg PMI to fall to 56 from 57, and services to fall to 53 from 53.4 Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

4pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 17 June): stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Friday

12.30am – Japan CPI (May): prices to rise 2.6% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – UK retail sales (May): sales to fall 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

9am - German IFO index (June): business climate index to fall to 92.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US new home sales (May): sales to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
 

 

Company announcements

 

 

 

Monday
20 June

Tuesday
21 June

Wednesday
22 June

Thursday
23 June

Friday
24 June

Full-year earnings

 

DS Smith,
JD Sports Fashion

Berkeley Group,
John Wood

Naked Wines

 

Half/ Quarterly earnings

Scottish Investment Trust

 

Micro Focus

Carnival,
FedEx,
Accenture

On the Beach

Trading update

Assoc. British Foods,
Sthree

 

 

Bunzl

 

 

 

Dividends

FTSE 100: Airtel Africa, Experian, British Land, United Utilities

FTSE 250: TR Property Inv Trust, MITIE, AVI Global, discoverIE Group

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

 

Monday
20 June
Tuesday
21 June
Wednesday
22 June
Thursday
23 June
Friday
24 June
Monday
27 June
FTSE 100     2.27      
Australia 200 0.2 0.1       1.0
Wall Street            
US 500 0.21* 0.05 0.17 0.09 0.11  
Nasdaq 1.82*          
Netherlands 25            
EU Stocks 50 2.3          
China H-Shares     3.5      
Singapore Blue Chip            
Hong Kong HS50 0.9   6.0      
South Africa 40   25.7        
Italy 40            
Japan 225            

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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