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The Week Ahead On The Markets


MongiIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

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Week commencing 10 October

Chris Beauchamp's insight

Earnings season begins this week with US banks, but also Delta Air Lines, providing markets with an insight into the health of US companies over the past three months. It is a busy week of US data, including The Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes, retail sales, consumer price index (CPI) and weekly jobless claims.

 

Economic reports

  • Weekly view

Monday

None

Tuesday

1.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (September): index to fall to 9. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am – UK employment data: 
September claimant count to rise by 10,000, and August unemployment rate to hold at 3.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

Wednesday

7am – UK GDP (August): expected to be 0.1% MoM, while the three month average falls to -0.3% from 0%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – US PPI (September): prices to remain unchanged in September compared to August. Markets to watch: USD crosses

7pm – FOMC minutes: these will look at the latest decision to raise rates, and the potential implications of future policy. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Thursday

1.30pm – US CPI (September), weekly jobless claims (w/e 8 October): prices to rise 8.1% YoY and 0.2% MoM, and core CPI to rise 6.5% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Jobless claims to fall to 215K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

4pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 7 October): stockpiles fell by 1.3 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Friday

2.30am – China CPI (September), trade data (September): prices to rise 2.4% YoY, while exports rise 6.9%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (September): sales to rise 0.2% MoM from 0.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (October, preliminary): expected to rise to 58.9 from 58.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Company announcements

 

 

 

Monday
10 October

Tuesday
11 October

Wednesday
12 October

Thursday
13 October

Friday
14 October

Full-year earnings

  Frasers Group Nanoco    

Half/ Quarterly earnings

    Polestar,
PepsiCo
Delta,
BlackRock
Morgan Stanley,
Wells Fargo,
Citigroup,
JPMorgan Chase

Trading update

    PageGroup,
Just Eat Takeaway.com
Hays,
easyJet
 

 

 

Dividends

FTSE 100: Taylor Wimpey, WPP, Spirax-Sarco, Tesco

FTSE 250: Howden Joinery, NCC, Close Brothers

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



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      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



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      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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