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Oil falls nearly 1% as market eyes increased supplies


MongiIG

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SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices fell nearly 1% on Thursday, extending losses as investors braced for more supplies following a compromise between top OPEC producers and as U.S. fuel stocks rose, raising concerns about demand in the world's largest consumer.

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Brent crude futures for September dropped 59 cents, or 0.8%, to $74.17 a barrel by 0409 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August was at $72.51 a barrel, down 62 cents, or 0.9%.

Both benchmarks slid more than 2% on Wednesday after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE reached a compromise that should pave the way for a deal to supply more crude to a tight oil market and cool soaring prices.

"The market is not taking any chances. Prices are very overbought anyway so traders might want to take some money off the table before the deal is concrete," said Avtar Sandu, senior commodity trader at Phillips Futures in Singapore.

Talks among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, had broken down earlier this month after the UAE objected to extending the supply cut deal beyond April 2022.

"The deal will take some time to get finalized, but it seems the UAE will be allowed to produce more output next year," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note.

"It seems OPEC+ will shortly have a plan to raise output and that is welcomed news as surging demand had oil market getting too tight."

In the United States, crude stockpiles fell for an eighth straight week last week, but gasoline and diesel inventories rose despite a drop in refinery utilization rates, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.

The large drawdown in crude stocks did little to boost oil prices as traders focused on the first rise in total petroleum stocks since early June, Moya said.

 

However, the world's top crude importer China on Thursday reported record crude processing volumes at its refineries in June, easing some of the downward pressure on oil prices.

Elsewhere, the prospect of a quick return of Iranian supplies to global markets has been pushed back as negotiations over the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal will not resume until mid-August.

 

By Florence Tan, 15th July 2021. Investing.com

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    • Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis
      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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