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US stocks surged as weak job growth spurred expectations for Fed rate cuts, despite Warren Buffett's cautionary move on Apple holdings. Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 06 May 2024 05:55 US equity markets surged higher on Friday night to conclude a volatile week in positive territory, after a weaker-than-expected jobs report led the interest rate market to price in a second 25 basis point (bp) Fed rate cut before year-end. For the week, the Dow Jones gained 1.14%, the Nasdaq added 0.97%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.55%. April jobs report: unpacking the numbers Within the details of Friday's jobs report, the US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, a significant reduction from March's 315,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged higher to 3.9% from 3.8%, while average hourly earnings eased to 3.9% YoY from 4.1%. Encouraged by Fed Chair Powell's comments that unexpected labour market weakness could prompt the central bank to cut rates, a 25 bp rate cut has been brought forward to September, with a second 25 bp rate cut priced for December. While expectations of additional Fed rate cuts would typically support equity markets, news over the weekend reported that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its holdings in major companies, raising eyebrows given the Sage of Omaha’s phenomenal track record. This week's economic calendar is relatively light, with the main highlights being speeches from several Fed officials and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. The Q1 2024 Earnings season continues, with companies scheduled to report this week including Palantir Technologies, Walt Disney, Twilio, Lyft, Uber, Airbnb, Robinhood, Roblox, and Dropbox. What is expected from the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Date: 11 May at 12am AEST Last month the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised lower to 77.2 from 79.4 in March, which was the highest level since July 2021. Both current conditions and future expectations declined more than expected, while inflation expectations were revised higher to 3.2% from 3.1%. This month the market is anticipating a further reduction to 76 as consumers become more cautious about the labour market and persistent inflation. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis There is no change to our view that the rally from April 19 at the 4,953 low is the second wave (Wave B) of a three-wave (ABC) corrective sequence, unfolding from the 5264 March high. Once the current B wave rally is complete, we expect another leg lower (Wave C) towards the 4850/4750 area, where we will look closely for signs of basing to establish long positions. For this scenario to play out, the current rally (Wave B) should spend minimal time above 5200. Be aware that should the S&P 500 cash trade above 5264, it would indicate the correction likely finished at the April 19 low and the uptrend has resumed. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis There is no change to our view that the rally from the April 16,973 low is the second wave (Wave B) of a three-wave (ABC) corrective sequence, unfolding from the 18,464 March high. Once the current B wave rally is complete, we expect another leg lower (Wave C) towards the 16,500/16,300 area, where we will look closely for signs of basing to establish long positions. For this scenario to play out, the current rally (Wave B) should spend little time above the resistance (formerly support) at 18,000. Be aware that should the Nasdaq cash trade above 18,464, it would indicate the correction likely finished at the April 19 low and the uptrend has resumed. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 6 May 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. -
AUD/USD hits a two-month high, buoyed by a weaker dollar and anticipation of the RBA's rate decision amidst a light US economic calendar and inflation concerns. Source: Getty Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Inflation Australian dollar Interest rate Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 06 May 2024 07:15 Last week saw the AUD/USD finish the week above .6600c for the first time in two months, benefiting from broad-based weakness in the US dollar that followed a less hawkish than expected FOMC meeting, and softer than expected US jobs report. This week's economic calendar in the US is relatively light, with the main highlights being speeches from several Fed officials and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. This means that if the AUD/USD is to make further gains, it will likely come courtesy of Tuesday's RBA Board meeting, previewed below. RBA interest rate decision and press conference Date: Tuesday, 7 May from 2.30pm AEST As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its official cash rate on hold at 4.35% at its Board meeting in March. The RBA noted that higher interest rates were working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply. However, while goods inflation continues to moderate, the RBA reiterated its concerns about sticky services inflation.“Services inflation remains elevated, and is moderating at a more gradual pace,” it said. The statement also placed emphasis on the data dependency of future decisions: "The board will rely upon the data", and observed the recent pick-up in measured productivity while noting that “the outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain.”We expect the RBA to keep rates on hold this month at 4.35% and to retain its neutral guidance with similar wording from the last Board meeting statement: “the Board is not ruling anything in or out”. In the lead-up to the upcoming May Board meeting, firmer than-expected Australian inflation and employment data has resulted in the Australian interest rate market swinging from pricing in RBA rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes. Following a news report this morning that former Governor Philip Lowe believes that the fight against inflation “isn’t done” yet, the probability of a 25 basis points (bp) rate rise by August has risen to 40%. While we view the bar to another RBA rate hike as very high, we acknowledge the window for rate cuts in 2024 has narrowed and have pushed back our call for a first RBA rate cut from August until November. RBA cash rate Source: RBA AUD/USD weekly chart technical analysis On the weekly chart, the AUD/USD continues to move sideways within a contracting multi-month bearish triangle. Downtrend resistance from the January 2023 .7158 high is currently at .6760ish. Uptrend support from the October 2022 .6170 low is at .6340ish. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis The AUD/USD starts a new week eyeing a thick resistance layer between .6650 and .6670. The AUD/USD has not traded above this level since mid-January. Should the AUD/USD see a sustained break above .6650/70, it would open the way for further gains initially towards .6700/20 before the weekly downtrend resistance identified above at .6765. On the downside, the AUD/USD has initial support at .6595 before the 200-day moving average at .6520. Below that, a layer of support resides at .6480ish from the swing lows of March and April, reinforced by the February .6442 low. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 6 May 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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By Ryan_Anderson · Posted
In the rapidly evolving medical equipment market, ResMed (ASX: RMD) has demonstrated remarkable growth potential and business resilience. The company not only surpassed the expectations of the market analysts in performance but also saw a significant rebound in gross profit margins, enhancing market optimism about its prospects. Ryan Anderson pointed out in his analysis of the latest financial report of ResMed that as the company expands into the GLP-1 weight loss drug market, it also sees new growth opportunities through its Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) therapy product line. This is particularly noteworthy for investors as it not only reveals the strategic positioning of ResMed in the weight loss drug issue but also demonstrates its ability to seek new growth points in the existing market. Against this backdrop, Ryan Anderson believes that the strategic layout and market performance of ResMed showcase its continued competitiveness as a leader in medical devices. Ryan Anderson emphasized that in the dynamics of the global medical equipment market, the adaptability and innovation capabilities of ResMed are key to its continued growth. Especially in the marketing strategy and product innovation of the company, effectively combining market trends and consumer demand enables ResMed to maintain a leading position in a competitive market. For example, the increased investment of ResMed in technology and product development continuously improves the performance and comfort of its CPAP machines, better meeting patient needs. Furthermore, analyst Ryan Anderson mentioned that the market strategy of ResMed is reflected not only in optimizing and innovating its product line but also in increasing brand awareness and market share through scientific research and market education. Through these strategies, ResMed successfully translates technological innovation into market competitiveness, thereby continuously driving sales and profit margin growth. Ryan Anderson further emphasized an optimistic outlook for the future prospects of ResMed. Despite market uncertainties such as international economic fluctuations and changes in industry regulations, the strong foundation and proactive market expansion strategy of ResMed enable it to withstand risks. He advised investors to pay attention to the continued performance and market expansion strategy of ResMed as key indicators for evaluating its long-term investment value. Ryan Anderson also advised investors that while the current stock price reflects some positive factors, in the long term, with further penetration into global markets and continued demonstration of product innovation capabilities, there is potential for further stock price increases. He believes that investing in ResMed is a wise investment in the long-term trend of health technology, especially against the backdrop of increasing global health awareness and rapid development of medical technology.
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Question
ibizen
I had about £4,500 disappearing from my account due to a IT glitch from IG. I've called on the same day I noticed the issue and they said they didn't know the reason but they would call me back the following day for an update. I never get a call back. I've sent a recap email to help-desk and never get a reply or even an automatic one. I'm only getting some updates via the online chat, they acknowledged the issue and they were looking into this but the time frame for the resolution keep getting delayed too.
I understand technical issue can happens, from airlines IT to UK Banks too but the way IG is handling this entire situation by hiding and not openly communicate make things even worst. No need to say my confidence in IG went down the basement. In what confidence I can still trade with IG if one day another glitch make duplicate trades with money going leaving the account. On top of not being able to trade until I get my money back.
I do require a written communication back from IG to acknowledge the situation and confirm the money will be refunded and also what are their plans to avoid this in the future?
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