Jump to content

Oil. Higher and higher?


Recommended Posts

Brent has been in a protracted battle since Covid 19 to regain it's 2019 price-point of $55-$65. To do this producers have had to put aside competitive animosity and fundamental political differences for the greater/ their own good. To a great extent this has worked and producers have managed to agree to cut supply in order to regain margins. All well and good.

Naturally, there are going to be rocks in the road to this continued cooperation. One such obstacle is Libya. Another is Venezuela. They are currently unable to produce oil as they are being hampered by inconvenient sanctions (Venezuela) and a nasty little civil war (Libya). However, it is looking more and more likely that Libya will once more become a global supplier in the not too distant future. Libya has lots of oil, it is the largest producer and has the largest  proven reserves of oil in Africa and is on the point of reopening the taps. Global supply is almost balanced with demand, I wonder how OPEC+ members feel about the return of Libya into their club of bonhomie?  Will they be overjoyed to once more compete  with a cash strapped Libya and their gazillions of barrels of oil? The risks are obvious. The Opec+ love in could disassemble and with it the stability in oil price. Covid 19 could return in the fall before it's exit stage left come 2021. A combination event is within reasonable feasibility.  Plus, the world economy will almost certainly be in contraction until 2021 heading off greater demand at the pass. 

It is therefore my humble opinion that oil (Brent) shall not rise inexorably, but trade within a range of $38.5-$47.5 until mid 2021. That's my bias, for what it's worth.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
12 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

To do this producers have had to put aside competitive animosity and fundamental political differences for the greater/ their own good. To a great extent this has worked and producers have managed to agree to cut supply in order to regain margins. All well and good.

Interesting new paradigm.  Maybe cutthroat competition and survival of the fittest isn't the optimal way to organize economies after all?

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Hi @neueneuen Thanks for coming back to this, Please note that number 1 above has been confirmed, unfortunately, I don't have number 2 yet. We will keep you updated. Thanks, KoketsoIG
    • Just recently, I wrote an article about how a Solana blockchain art project (Artrade) is helping artists raise their earnings and even further transforming their physical works into RWA essentially NFTs. With that in mind, I came across Rarible, a marketplace that focuses on digital art and NFTs and the similarities of the platforms caught my attention. Rarible allows artists to sell their creations as NFTs, essentially digital certificates of ownership and cuts out middlemen, connecting artists directly with buyers. Beyond trading, Rarible offers a somewhat user-friendly interface for creating NFTs, even for beginners.   The platform unlike Artrade is built on the Ethereum blockchain and uses its own token, RARI, for governance and rewarding active users. In the long term they seem building with the goal of becoming a DAO in the future While it’s still early days, I have no doubt Rarible offers a unique approach to buying, selling, and creating digital art, and the recent listing on Bitget will further expose it to new communities and potential investors.     Do you think RARI's approach will be sustainable as a marketplace for NFTs?
    • Soybeans Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend  Mode - Impulse  Structure - Impulse for (5)  Position - Wave 1 of (5) Direction - Wave 2 of (5) Details - Wave 1 of (5) completing with a diagonal. Wave 2 bounce is emerging before the price turns downside for 3 of (5). Invalidation now at 1226’6. Not much has changed since the last update.   Soybean Price Analysis: Elliott Wave Perspective Signals Continued Downward Trend   In the realm of commodity trading, Soybean has recently undergone a significant downturn, marking a nearly 7% drop since March 21st. This decline appears to be part of a broader trend that commenced back in June 2022. However, before this recent descent, there was a brief period of respite characterized by a corrective bounce starting in late February.    Delving deeper into the price action, an Elliott Wave analysis sheds light on the intricacies of Soybean's movement. The daily chart's decline since June 2022 reveals a corrective pattern, delineated into waves A-B-C, as denoted by blue annotations.   The initial wave, labeled as Blue Wave 'A', terminated at 1249 in October 2023, exhibiting a distinct diagonal pattern. Subsequently, a modest rebound ensued, marked by Blue Wave 'B', which concluded at 1398 in November 2023. However, the ascendancy was short-lived as the bears regained control, manifesting in the ongoing development of Blue Wave 'C'. This wave, evolving into an impulse wave, has currently progressed to wave (5) following the completion of wave (4) in March 2024.   Zooming in on the H4 chart, a granular analysis reveals the sub-waves of wave (5). Wave 1 of (5) concluded with a diagonal structure, followed by a corrective phase as the price undergoes a temporary upside correction to complete wave 2. Despite uncertainties regarding whether wave 2 has fully concluded or will undergo another upward leg, the overarching trajectory remains clear – a downward break is anticipated to continue wave 3 of (5), leading to further downside movement.   In light of this analysis, the prevailing sentiment favors sellers, who continue to assert dominance over the commodity market. As long as the price remains below 1226’6, the outlook remains skewed towards further downside potential, with the possibility of reaching the lowest price point since November 2020.   In conclusion, the Elliott Wave perspective offers valuable insights into Soybean's price dynamics, signaling a continued bearish trajectory in the near term. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the broader trend suggests that sellers are likely to maintain control, shaping the commodity's price action in the foreseeable future.   Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!        
×
×
  • Create New...
us