Unveil your splendour, Gertrude.

[dmedin]

NEW TRADING SYSTEM IDEA 👹

When the price is above 200 EMA and the Slow Stochastic (14,3,3) %D line has been below 20 and the %K line crosses above the %D line from below 20 and the %K line is greater than 20, buy with a risk:reward of 1:1.5!

When the price is below 200 EMA and the Slow Stochastic (14,3,3) %D line has been above 80 and the %K line crosses below the %D line from above 80 and the %K line is less than 80, sell with a risk:reward of 1:1.5! 🤡

Test a hunner times, hun?  😘 👺

[dmedin]

Immediate refinements need to be made.

First, don't take a buy or sell signal when the candle is weak (long wicks, small real body, or is contrary to the direction you are about to go in).

Don't take a trade when the stop would be too far away (large whipsaw movements).  Stop is usually just above/below the immediately previous high/low.

Also, instead of using fixed R:R you could try using the opposite condition as the exit trigger (exit long when %K falls below %D from above 80, exit short when %K rises above %D from below 20)

💩

Edited September 26, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Dang!  This system also misses out on enormous trending moves - whether using a fixed R:R or waiting till an opposite signal 

TA is so unbelievably sh!t.

Edited September 26, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Last one.  Ditch the requirement for %K to be beneath 80/above 20.  It just needs to cross below/above %D when %D is above/beneath 80/20.

[Kodiak]

Well the market change all the time so dont expect it to work fpr long

The thing is that when you take more money than buy and hold from the market someone else pays the profit and probably try to change the way they trade after a while?

Lets take a look at DAX buy and hold (including dividend)

3 years ago Dax was at 12 587 and now at 12 555 (thats a loss of 32 points)

6 years ago 9486 thats 3069 points profit

and 6 years would be about 1500 days of trading?

thats 2 points a day or 10 points a week for buy and hold

and IG (or others) dont work for free

 

[dmedin]

9 hours ago, Kodiak said:

Well the market change all the time so dont expect it to work fpr long

The thing is that when you take more money than buy and hold from the market someone else pays the profit and probably try to change the way they trade after a while?

Lets take a look at DAX buy and hold (including dividend)

3 years ago Dax was at 12 587 and now at 12 555 (thats a loss of 32 points)

6 years ago 9486 thats 3069 points profit

and 6 years would be about 1500 days of trading?

thats 2 points a day or 10 points a week for buy and hold

and IG (or others) dont work for free

 

 

'Including the dividend' - except you didn't.  If the FTSE 100 gives you compounding interest of, say, 4% a year, what do you have at the end of 10 years if you invest £500 per month and the price stays the same?  Please do the calculations.

My results show that buy and hold absolutely blows moving average strategies out of the water for some indices at least.  What have you got to show for us?

Edited September 26, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/etf/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=0P0000WA5M

£25 a share, or so.

You get 4.34% a year, divided into quarters.

£500 a month = 20 shares.

Face value of a share is £1?  So you'll get 4.34p x 20 = 86.8p in dividends on your £500 after a year.

You lucky c&nt  

But hey, at least you're not a retarded day trader losing all your money

Edited September 26, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

When you're buying £500 a month, you're buying a varying prices.  So your 'chunks' of £500 bought during downtrends will give back more than the 'chunks' you bought near the top.  If my calculations are right, £25000 worth of shares in that FTSE 100 tracker is 1000 shares which is £43.40 a year in dividends, which even with compounding is absolutely awful, but then again we all knew that the stock market is a gigantic fraud and designed to enrich the wealthy, didn't we

[dmedin]

Bottom line: we are wage slaves.  We cannot trade ourselves to financial independence.  This is by design, and anyone who thinks otherwise has not been educated.  😘 

[dmedin]

12 hours ago, dmedin said:

Dang!  This system also misses out on enormous trending moves - whether using a fixed R:R or waiting till an opposite signal 

TA is so unbelievably sh!t.

 

The point of using the stochastic was to get more signals, as using the MACD generates few valid signals (unless you are going to buy on crosses above 0, and sell on crosses below 0).

Predictably, having more signals just results in having more bad trades and does nothing to keep you in on trending moves.

All indicators are equal: equally bad.

[dmedin]

This entire move down is excluded because the stochastic cross occurred when price was still above the 200 EMA.  You're lucky if you get sloppy seconds, once the trend is nearly over.

[dmedin]

Here's where we are now with DAX.  Two fall signals, followed by one good one.  The Auto-Fib is turned on here.  No buying at the bottom because all the price action here is so far below the 200 EMA that the 200 EMA is off screen.

[dmedin]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Two fall signals

False

[dmedin]

Possible variation: don't use a 200 EMA as a filter.  Just sell overbought conditions and buy oversold ones.  Especially when the stochastic crossing happens with a bullish/bearing candle formation. 

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Here's where we are now with DAX.  Two fall signals, followed by one good one.  The Auto-Fib is turned on here.  No buying at the bottom because all the price action here is so far below the 200 EMA that the 200 EMA is off screen.

 

 

That's such a s3xy chart, I turned myself on  

[dmedin]

So much for Tom's beloved stochastics  

 

[dmedin]

Tried backtesting this in 'replay mode' (to avoid the possibility of backtesting with hindsight), H1 timeframe, and it's utter garbage.

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Wait until both %K and %D are sloping downwards to sell, sloping upwards to buy? 💩

[dmedin]

Here we are toots, a stoch crossing from above 80, both %K and %D pointing down and a bearish candle formation.  Let's see what happens next shall we 😘

[dmedin]

Hahahaha 🤡

[dmedin]

Three losers followed by one winner, Tom.  It ain't great 🤯

[dmedin]

Yep.  A disaster on 15 minutes time frame too.

[dmedin]

Williams %R is just an inverted %K line, and, yes, it is also totally cr@p.

[dmedin]

The MACD gives better and more reliable signals? 

[dmedin]

Buy on bullish candle with MACD crossing above signal even if it's not from below zero?

Sell on bearish candle with MACD crossing below signal even if it's not from above zero?

[dmedin]

I was geeing it on and getting anxious, even although this is data from months ago

[dmedin]

You wouldn't buy this MACD crossing because the candles are incredibly weak.

[dmedin]

And at this point the March 2020 event occurs and the 15 minute timeframe is untradeable.  Sell and hold

[dmedin]

In general though, 15 minutes seems to be better for spotting the turns.  The MACD crossings often come 'too later' on high time frames. 

Oh Josephine, this is all far too w@nky to be sustainable.

[dmedin]

16 hours ago, Kodiak said:

and IG (or others) dont work for free

 

Day traders work every day to lose money.