NKY

[HMB]

...near the upper end of recent range...:

 

 

while "rest of the world (SPX, RTY, DAX) near lower end of recent ranges... - wondering if that is a sustainable divergence...

US stimulus/election uncertainty, re-lockdown in Europe, relatively fewer cases in Japan may be the narrative behind it..

thoughts?

 

 

 

 

[dmedin]

12 hours ago, HMB said:

while "rest of the world (SPX, RTY, DAX) near lower end of recent ranges... - wondering if that is a sustainable divergence...

 

Could be that they are withdrawing their holdings of foreign shares and buying their own?  Who knows with these inscrutable Japanese!

They do tend to be ahead of the rest of the world.  

[dmedin]

When the cloud ahead turns green, think about buying  

Edited September 27, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

7 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

Could be that they are withdrawing their holdings of foreign shares and buying their own?  Who knows with these inscrutable Japanese!

They do tend to be ahead of the rest of the world.  

good point - still relatively strong JPY seems to confirm this

obviously can't explain previous week's rising NKY while JPY was weakening (vs USD) - could be increase in speculative USD (dip) buying dominating the JPY demand by Japanese investors reallocating to more domestic shares, or BoJ increasing ETF purchases once said reallocation seemed to slow..

 

 

 

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, HMB said:

good point - still relatively strong JPY seems to confirm this

obviously can't explain previous week's rising NKY while JPY was weakening (vs USD) - could be increase in speculative USD (dip) buying dominating the JPY demand by Japanese investors reallocating to more domestic shares, or BoJ increasing ETF purchases once said reallocation seemed to slow..

 

 

 

 

Are you trading based on fundamentals?

[HMB]

Is that a trick question..?

I'm trying to have a broad picture.  And to consider (and develop an understanding of) as many influences on prices as I can.

[HMB]

Not improbable I'm missing something (again), but right now don't see why NKY would break above recent resistance around 23375 before US Open.  Friday's Don Quarantino move has been more than undone by now.  Pelosi sees "some progress" (Sunday, CBS according to Reuters), but for the last eight hours or so US futures sideways - would be unlikely if compromise had been agreed already - hence absence of volatility later would be surprising.  25 points or so NQ opening gap should act at least a bit as "magnet" (and move to close that pull NKY with it).

 

 

    

[dmedin]

14 minutes ago, HMB said:

Not improbable I'm missing something (again), but right now don't see why NKY would break above recent resistance around 23375 before US Open.  Friday's Don Quarantino move has been more than undone by now.  Pelosi sees "some progress" (Sunday, CBS according to Reuters), but for the last eight hours or so US futures sideways - would be unlikely if compromise had been agreed already - hence absence of volatility later would be surprising.  25 points or so NQ opening gap should act at least a bit as "magnet" (and move to close that pull NKY with it).

 

 

    

 

In my view the Japanese index has already 'pulled back' and rejected the lower level with a hammer hence I'm long.

[HMB]

ok - might go long Dax or NDX with similarly tight stop later, if either comes back, and if NKY is lower then. (to be positioned for breakout in either direction - if such happens, then soon moving stop of the leg that's still open closer;  targeting small gain. short term trade).

[HMB]

13 hours ago, HMB said:

ok - might go long Dax or NDX with similarly tight stop later, if either comes back, and if NKY is lower then. (to be positioned for breakout in either direction - if such happens, then soon moving stop of the leg that's still open closer;  targeting small gain. short term trade).

... waiting.. 

[HMB]

stop hit

[dmedin]

10 hours ago, HMB said:

stop hit

Cripes Eileen!  

[HMB]

flat over three years

😐😩

 

[HMB]

Significant levels between now and 10% higher, anyone...?