EURUSD - Trendlines have been broken

[jbtrader]

The EURUSD chart looks ominous to me.

The trend lines on the chart have given way and downside below 1.06 looks very likely to me.

If that gives way then par could well be next.

I'd like to think there will be a chance to short at 1.10 but if not in the next couple of days I will go short where I can.

 

Any thoughts guys?

 

[FiringSquad13]

From a tehnical view point I can see1.08 possibly further down to 1.06.

 

Although Non-Farm payrolls on Friday.  Dollar could get stronger if figures beat expectations.  The again .........

[jbtrader]

Drop, consolidate.......drop, consolidate.....familiar pattern.

If the Eur gets above 1.08 in this consolidation it would be a good short again in my opinion.

 

 

I really do believe its on its way to parity.

[jbtrader]

 

Here is the chance above 1.08 to get short.

I will add to the trade again when it closes under 1.0650

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

[Guest Zero]

Hi JB - nice trading.  Yet are you saying you'd short some more above 1.08 and close it out at 1.0650 or wait till that level has been breached then short some more?

[jbtrader]

Hey Zero,

 

Nothing ever moves in a straight line.

We always tend to see a consolidation.

Having moved a fair way down I wasn't suprised to see the Eur test 1.08 again.

As expected it failed and I have the next support at 1.0650.

It has barely closed below that this morning. But as I mentioned previously a close below 1.0650 is a signal for me to add to the short again. This level has proved formidable thus far but when taken out I think we will see another significant move toward parity.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

 

[Guest Zero]

Hey jbtrader,

 

Stubborn level 1.0650 - there now or close to it (3:30pm GMT+10, end of day SPI).

I haven't traded currencies for years, so don't have a feel for them at the moment.  I was wondering why you would prefer to wait rather than short on the pullback and then have some points up your sleeve as it attacks 1.0650.  If I was trading and waiting for 1.0650 to be breached, I feel I'd be behind the move if I was trying to jump in, whereas getting in up at your pullback level, I'd get that surge lower without trying?  And, if incorrect, close out flat back up near entry?

 

For an intra-day trader (ie. me) these moves seem like forever  

 

Your analysis has been spot on for this move.   Good stuff.

[jbtrader]

Hey Zero,

 

Having already had this position for some time now I am just looking at the most important trendlines.

Waiting for 1.0650 to be breached is important to me as I don't see much if any support below here that is meaningful. Par awaits.

This makes me believe that the 1.0650 level holds more impotance than most support levels.

I'm surprised there was no follow through last night.

I don't want to bring my average down until I am more certain there will be the follow through.

 

I am confident that this level will be breached but until it is I am somewhat cautious.

 

Been in the Eur and Gold trades for quite a while now - must seem like an eternity for you :-)

 

[Guest Zero]

Yes, patience! grasshopper. 

 

I am still waiting...  I must trade in dog years or something. 

 

But I do appreciate the ability to be able to trade like you do.  It is not easy so good work.  I was actually thinking of broadening my time-frames so may join you in the slow-mo trades.  I feel silly getting asked all the time about the SPI (or a market) and saying - nichts, doesn't matter, I just trade intra-day structure.  I get some weird looks, or like, how does that help me ?

Anyway - back to the waiting game.

 

These days - just an after-thought - interest rates are so low or negative, that the carry doesn't help.  I remember the good old days (10years ago) when people were heding baskets of FX just to milk the interest.  Not anymore.  Except maybe the $AUD.  Yay for the Aussie.  

[Guest Zero]

Well, is the recent move lower enough to be classified as a breach of 1.0650?  It is not too convincing.  Monday might be more interesting. 

[Guest FoxTrader]

I think the EUR is heading for parity with the USD.....

[jbtrader]

1.0460 is the last support that I can see on the way to eventual parity with tghe USD.

This has been a good trade.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

[Guest Zero]

I know I don't have to tell you this, but make sure you take some pocket money from this trade - while technically everything is looking fine, there are a few market moving events this week that might muck things up.  Short covering?  I'd hate to see such a good trade go to waste!  Cheers.

[Guest Zero]

Um, well.  That's sort of what I meant...  Yikes. 

300 points and no comment from the community - I think it deserves an honourable mention as a decent move?

? Anyone long the Euro pre-Draghi give us a nod.

The next week will be more telling perhaps. 

 

[jbtrader]

Hey Zero,

 

Sorry but I was flat out last week.

I got stopped out at breakeven on this trade after all that good work. It feels like a loss though.

***** ECB but hey - thats trading.

I thought the trade was insulated from market noise but that sure was a surprise.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

[Guest Zero]

I think the majority of Hedgies got burnt too, and the rest.  Seems like there is a bit of internal tension within the ECB.  You'd expect Draghi to have given the priviledged Prop. Banks a clear indication what he was intending, as they were all expecting more (deeper cut) - but maybe there was a loud "nein!" in the votes.

 

While it feels like a loss, you're doing well to break-even after that size move.  Live to fight another day.