Brent Dec-15

[FiringSquad13]

Brent approaching major support.  This is the Dec contract.  Plenty of time to make gains on this.

 

A long at 4700 could be a good bet.  Id have a tight stop on this at about 4630 as a break of the support could see the bears take control. 

[jbtrader]

Oil fundamentals are bearish.

Production is up in the US even as rig counts are down.

The term structures have also moved bearishly in the last week .

Crude storage is being bid for quite aggressively in the US as well.

 

Don't think the support will hold.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

[FiringSquad13]

 

I agree. The fundamentals aren't great. As you say, rig count down yet WTI not responding.

 

I think the key for oil and other commodities will be the USD.

[jbtrader]

My thoughts on the USD are that it's likely to be stronger in to the Dec Fed meeting where I like many expect lift off on rates.

As such commodities are going to do it tough for a few weeks.

My feeling is that the Fed will pause for a while after the first rise.

[Guest Zero]

How's that support looking after last night?  I can't reference your original chart to current spot prices. 

[FiringSquad13]

Support has gone.  Interesting times ahead.  One of the problems for oil is a strong dollar.  However if and when rates rise, you would expect the dollar to get stronge which would put further pressure on commodities across the board.  Although saying that, I think the markets have generally priced in a rate rise already.

[jbtrader]

A bigger problem is Iran.

Another major problem is OPEC.

 

Both are increasing production at a time where demand is softening.

 

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

Thanks ,

 

After last night I think that support has been well cleared.  Interesting now where it might end up, or bounce to.