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Brent Dec-15

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Oil fundamentals are bearish.

Production is up in the US even as rig counts are down.

The term structures have also moved bearishly in the last week .

Crude storage is being bid for quite aggressively in the US as well.


Don't think the support will hold.


Just my thoughts.





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My thoughts on the USD are that it's likely to be stronger in to the Dec Fed meeting where I like many expect lift off on rates.

As such commodities are going to do it tough for a few weeks.

My feeling is that the Fed will pause for a while after the first rise.

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Support has gone.  Interesting times ahead.  One of the problems for oil is a strong dollar.  However if and when rates rise, you would expect the dollar to get stronge which would put further pressure on commodities across the board.  Although saying that, I think the markets have generally priced in a rate rise already.

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