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Morning Notes 25-05-21 ( Said I loved you but I lied)


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‘’I said I loved you but I lied’’…. Micheal Bolton

The 90s was a  unique time in music indeed . From Micheal Bolton’s mahoosive hits to the cooling off in popularity of Micheal Jackson the consolidation and rise of the girl power movement that gave birth to Celine Dion, Janet Jackson , Britney Spears , Destiny’s Child, Dido, Whitney Huston, Brandy and most importantly the multi million dollar music videos. Talk about going all out! Back on the good ol days, all you could do was watch bands live in concerts  but CDs stole the show and  you could soon have a side of movie  to go with your audio. The music industry was booming. All an aspiring artist needed was to make one hit song, create an OTT music video  and they could just print money. Then in the 2000s  limewire, napster, bittorrent showed users a way to have access to these videos without the need to part with their cash…. and the industry collapsed, leaving only the best and most talented artists as the strongest hands who would go on to  become the biggest names of the early mid and late 2000s.   What does this have to do with my note this morning ? Well nothing. Forgive me, today, nostalgia washes over me and I day dream about the good old days where good heart-felt lyrics and song writing and producing skills were the most important factors in a musician’s career …. I said I loved you but I lied.

      Any-who, lets see what the math says about the markets today 🙂 Small cap growth is down on a trending basis as of this morning Vs Large Cap which is now outperforming on a 3 month basis. If you recall I initiated a purchase of the QQQs on the 17th of May. To date it’s up almost 3 percent as reflation continues to be the name of the game and economies reopen.

China on the other hand, is underperforming. If you also recall I also made a public post on IG about how I thought China was becoming concern in the beginning of April . Now down on a trending basis, it is no surprise that cryptos are down too. Should the global economy slow down significantly expect to see some follow through in other assets as the scrabble for safety increases. Gold, the dollar and high quality , low debt tried and tested companies will be the winners should this scenario play-out.

Let’s go through our tried and true idea generation process to see what opportunities await us this week.

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The VIX is back down again on a trending basis as the market continues to price in growth. This is bullish for stonks.

We may be approaching the point where where should start thinking of banking some of those hard earned gains. Remember the point here is the grow my money slowly over time not looking for riches here, Just need to preserve and protect.

With the SP500 higher on low volume vs the 1 and 3 month averages, plus volatility slowly coming off its time to be aware of any liquidity traps so we don't get snagged.

 

     Cyptos continue to bleed out on the roadside as institutions collect profits leaving a-lot of retail investors as bag holders . When I run my model on the space on ETH and BTC for example, The likelihood of the returns over the next few days having a NEGATIVE sign on them is quite high. Anyone bullish on the space would be wise to exercise some  patience. Your time will come HODLERS just not yet IMHO.

 

   Financials continue to dominate as interest rate rises provides an extra tailwind to their performance with the XLF up 13% vs the last three months as of the time of writing this. As the days go by I will be removing old lovers who have underperformed  from my portfolio and seek to replace them with new investing / trading ideas from that sector as they relate to the current economic conditions..... said I loved them but I lied...... Look out for a note on that.

 

Thats it from me today folks .

Take Care out there.

If I find anything interesting will be sure to share it .

 

CA

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