Jump to content

Morning Notes 25-05-21 ( Said I loved you but I lied)


Recommended Posts

‘’I said I loved you but I lied’’…. Micheal Bolton

The 90s was a  unique time in music indeed . From Micheal Bolton’s mahoosive hits to the cooling off in popularity of Micheal Jackson the consolidation and rise of the girl power movement that gave birth to Celine Dion, Janet Jackson , Britney Spears , Destiny’s Child, Dido, Whitney Huston, Brandy and most importantly the multi million dollar music videos. Talk about going all out! Back on the good ol days, all you could do was watch bands live in concerts  but CDs stole the show and  you could soon have a side of movie  to go with your audio. The music industry was booming. All an aspiring artist needed was to make one hit song, create an OTT music video  and they could just print money. Then in the 2000s  limewire, napster, bittorrent showed users a way to have access to these videos without the need to part with their cash…. and the industry collapsed, leaving only the best and most talented artists as the strongest hands who would go on to  become the biggest names of the early mid and late 2000s.   What does this have to do with my note this morning ? Well nothing. Forgive me, today, nostalgia washes over me and I day dream about the good old days where good heart-felt lyrics and song writing and producing skills were the most important factors in a musician’s career …. I said I loved you but I lied.

      Any-who, lets see what the math says about the markets today 🙂 Small cap growth is down on a trending basis as of this morning Vs Large Cap which is now outperforming on a 3 month basis. If you recall I initiated a purchase of the QQQs on the 17th of May. To date it’s up almost 3 percent as reflation continues to be the name of the game and economies reopen.

China on the other hand, is underperforming. If you also recall I also made a public post on IG about how I thought China was becoming concern in the beginning of April . Now down on a trending basis, it is no surprise that cryptos are down too. Should the global economy slow down significantly expect to see some follow through in other assets as the scrabble for safety increases. Gold, the dollar and high quality , low debt tried and tested companies will be the winners should this scenario play-out.

Let’s go through our tried and true idea generation process to see what opportunities await us this week.

2073961804_Screenshot2021-05-25at11_43_35.thumb.png.7cbb9f712c379ee8ca7b569ba44c3b2c.png

 

The VIX is back down again on a trending basis as the market continues to price in growth. This is bullish for stonks.

We may be approaching the point where where should start thinking of banking some of those hard earned gains. Remember the point here is the grow my money slowly over time not looking for riches here, Just need to preserve and protect.

With the SP500 higher on low volume vs the 1 and 3 month averages, plus volatility slowly coming off its time to be aware of any liquidity traps so we don't get snagged.

 

     Cyptos continue to bleed out on the roadside as institutions collect profits leaving a-lot of retail investors as bag holders . When I run my model on the space on ETH and BTC for example, The likelihood of the returns over the next few days having a NEGATIVE sign on them is quite high. Anyone bullish on the space would be wise to exercise some  patience. Your time will come HODLERS just not yet IMHO.

 

   Financials continue to dominate as interest rate rises provides an extra tailwind to their performance with the XLF up 13% vs the last three months as of the time of writing this. As the days go by I will be removing old lovers who have underperformed  from my portfolio and seek to replace them with new investing / trading ideas from that sector as they relate to the current economic conditions..... said I loved them but I lied...... Look out for a note on that.

 

Thats it from me today folks .

Take Care out there.

If I find anything interesting will be sure to share it .

 

CA

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,264
    • Total Posts
      90,875
    • Total Members
      41,377
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Adam50
    Joined 06/02/23 08:09
  • Posts

    • Asian equities suffered their worst day in three months overnight, retreating on a broad front as markets reacted to the impressive US NFP reading last week. The huge number of jobs created, and the lowest unemployment level in over half a century poured cold water on the idea that the Fed would pause its hiking efforts, although expectations for the terminal rate only ticked up to 5% from 4.9%. In the UK the FTSE 100 remains close to its new record high, continuing its strong run versus other indices. Oil prices have edged higher after hitting a four-week low on Friday in the wake of the NFP report, but this appears to be a brief respite. A quiet start to the week sees just the Canadian Ivey PMI on the calendar of notable events.  
    • For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Indices: Europe expected down today after FT100 record on Friday. Techs biggest decliners on Wall St FX: USD holds recent gains after very strong NFP data on Friday. Traders working out this week’s direction. UK GDP on Friday possibly the big data of the week  Equities: Earnings begin to slow down…this week DIS & UBER the big ones Commods: Gold up after 2 heafty days of declines          
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 6 February 23, AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) AAVEUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((2)) Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave III of Motive Wave Cancel invalid Level: 50.173 AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD)Trading Strategy: AAVE token has recovered well from the 50.40 level and managed to cross the MA200 line, indicating that an uptrend is forming. The Elliottwave structure is in a correction of wave (2) as a short-term decline before the price rises. again AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an uptrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line momentum are bullish TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 6 February 23, AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) AAVEUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((2)) Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave III of Motive Wave Cancel invalid Level: 50.173 AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) Trading Strategy: AAVE token has recovered well from the 50.40 level and managed to cross the MA200 line, indicating that an uptrend is forming. The Elliottwave structure is in a correction of wave (2) as a short-term decline before the price rises. again. AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200, indicating an uptrend. The wave oscillators below Zero-Line Bearish momentum.
×
×
  • Create New...