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Charting the Markets: 22 August

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 head lower in early trading. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD head lower as risk-off momentum takes hold. And gold and Brent maintain bearish momentum, while natural gas pushes back towards resistance.

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: equity markets hesitant after strong selloff

Equity markets trading with caution this morning after a strong selloff yesterday. EUR/USD sets new 20-year low. Zoom cuts profit and revenue guidance.

 

Daniela Sabin Hathorn | Presenter and Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 23 August 2022 

EUR/USD parity

Asia-Pacific equity markets fell overnight, after US indices lost ground in yesterday’s session as EUR/USD set a new two decade low, by falling below parity and further than it did mid-July.

Most economists who have taken part to the latest Reuters poll on Federal Reserve (Fed) rates expect a half percentage point hike next month, confirming the previous poll, which would take the key interest rate to 2.75%-3.00%. Eighteen of the 94 surveyed see the Fed going for 75-basis points (bps). According to the survey, many think inflation has peaked, while risks of a recession are growing.

Since March, the US Federal Reserve has raised rates by a total of 225 basis points, and with more to come, the survey showed a 45% median probability of a recession over the coming year, up from July's 40%, and a 50% chance of one within two years.

Macroeconomic outlook

Markets await PMI manufacturing data in Europe and the US, expected to fall further across the board.

Germany and France PMI are already in contraction territory, while the UK manufacturing and services PMI should remain above 50. Later this afternoon, Eurozone consumer confidence flash for the month of August is forecast to fall to -28, from -27 the previous month.

In the US, July new home sales are expected to drop by 3% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis.

Equities

In the UK, John Wood Group PLC says its adjusted EBITDA fell by 5% in the first six months, and revenue was flat. It nonetheless expects higher revenue his year, between $5.2 billion and $5.5bn.

Meanwhile, Britain will not take any action over billionaire Patrick Drahi's stake in BT Group PLC, according to a statement from the British telecom firm this morning.

Last December, Drahi increased his stake in BT to 18%, a move that had to be examined by the British Government to see whether it would have national security implications.

Elsewhere, Zoom Video Communications Inc fell by more than 10% in extended trading, after the group cut its annual profit and revenue forecasts. Zoom posted earnings of $1.05 per share, better than the 94 cents anticipated by analysts, but revenue missed forecasts, rising only by 8% to $1.1bn, its slowest quarterly revenue growth on record.

At the peak of the pandemic, Zoom was posting triple-digit growth. Now that workers are going back to the office, the group has to find ways to attract high-paying clients to sustain its growth, in a high inflation environment.

Zoom had to cut its earnings and revenue forecast. It now expects annual adjusted profit per share between $3.66 and $3.69, compared with $3.70 to $3.77 forecast earlier. Annual revenue is now seen between $4.39 billion and $4.40 billion, compared with Zoom's earlier outlook of $4.53 billion to $4.55 billion.

More US earnings are due today. Toll Brothers Inc is scheduled to publish its quarterly earnings before the opening bell. Analysts anticipate earnings of $2.30 per share, on revenue of $2.52bn.

Urban Outfitters Inc’ report is also expected before market opens. Earnings per share (EPS) should come at 69 cents, and revenue at $1.18nn.

Commodities

Yesterday, sources from OPEC+ said the organisation produced 2.9 million barrels fewer than its target set for July. OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in each of July and August, in the process to fully unwind nearly 10 million bpd of cuts implemented in May 2020.

Earlier this month, the group agreed to further increase production targets by another 100,000 bpd for the month of September. Oil prices weren't really affected by the announcement as missing target is far from uncommon for the organisation.

Despite tight physical crude supply, oil prices have recently been driven by macroeconomic fears, prompting Saudi Arabia's energy minister to warn that the organisation was ready to cut output to address the recent drop in oil prices.

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Hawkish Fed comments ahead of Jackson Hole symposium steering risk-off attitude

Indices: Europe expected down, Dax at 5wk low. Concerns about higher rates driving a drop in global equity mkts  

FX: USD under pressure on dismal US econ data, increasing fears of a US recession -  becoming evident that Fed members are caring little about an economic pullback in the face of rising inflation. EURUSD climbs but still below parity
Equities: Earnings - LOOK and NVDA  

Commods: Oil holding gains yesterday driven by a big draw in API oil inventories yesterday. USD weakness giving gold a lift yesterday

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: market pressure building; Fed hawkish ahead of Jackson Hole

European indices expected down with the DAX at a 5-week low; concerns about higher rates driving a drop in global equity markets. Hawkish Fed comments ahead of Jackson Hole symposium steering risk-off attitude.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 24 August

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq losses ease, but bearish outlook remains. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD turn upwards after recent slump. And gold, oil and wheat prices move higher.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Market data to trade on Thursday: HAS, PTON, GPS, DHER earnings

While there is data on second quarter GDP in Germany and the US, it’s a final number and may not move the markets, so IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks to earnings.

Corporates to watch include UK recruitment company Hays (HAS), German delivery business Delivery Hero (DHER), US retailer Gap Inc (GPS) and US fitness business Peloton (PTON).

 

 

 

look ahead Thursday.PNG

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected mixed to higher after gains on Wall St and overnight in APAC

FX: DXY down for a 3rd day sending EURUSD back up above parity as traders brace for Jackson Hole speeches. German Ifo and GDP and UK distributive trades to come this morning   

Equities: Earnings – HAS, DHER, GPS, PTON. NVDA down 4.3% last night on poor outlook. NOVN wants to spin off Sandoz  

Commods: Oil up again as US may not consider concessions on Iran nuclear deal. Gold continues its bounce off 61.8% Fib retracement. Lumber close to testing key long-term support

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD edges back ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

DXY down for a third day sending EUR/USD back up above parity as traders brace for Jackson Hole speeches. German Ifo and GDP and UK distributive trades to come this morning.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 25 August 2022 

Macro overview

Indices in Europe have showed gains this morning, following the lead of yesterday’s US session and Asia-Pacific region overnight.

In Germany, the final reading of gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy has expanded by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), 1.7% year-on-year (YoY).

At 9am, economists expect Germany Ifo business climate to fall further to 86.8 in August which would set a new two-year low.

In the UK, the CBI distributive trades survey is out at 11 am. This is the UK's oldest business survey and it measures the health of the UK retail sector.

A bit later at 1.30pm, the second estimate of US GDP is expected. Economists anticipate a contraction of 0.8% QoQ, and weekly initial jobless claims.

Jackson Hole

The 45th Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium starts today, and this year the title is "Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy."

The main headlines are likely to be on the debate around how deep, far-reaching and entrenched inflation appears to be. This time last year central bankers were asking whether inflation would last any length of time.

Other issues closer to the title of the conference will be about the emergence of economic constraints during the pandemic and how supply considerations have returned to centre stage. The full agenda will be published later today by the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Earnings overview

Hays PLC posted a full-year 32% increase in fees. Operating profit rose 128% to £210.1 million. The recruiter proposed a year core dividend of 2.85 pence and a special dividend of 7.34 pence per share.

In the US, NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions) fell in extended trading, after posting earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street expectations. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.51, versus the expected $0.53. Revenue reached $6.7 billion, lower than analysts’ expectations of $6.83 billion, but in line with the group’s own forecast.

Last May NVIDIA cut its revenue guidance to $6.70bn from 8.10bn. The chipmaker said that the miss was because of lower sales of its gaming products, primarily graphics cards for PCs, which are facing "challenging market conditions."

On its outlook, NVIDIA said it expected $5.9 billion in sales in its fiscal third quarter (Q3), versus Refinitiv consensus estimates of $6.95 billion.

Nordstrom Inc shares fell 10% in extended trading after the clothing retailer cut its annual revenue and profit forecast. The company said decades-high inflation was squeezing consumer spending on its high-end clothing and footwear.

A few retailers are due to report quarterly earnings today. Analysts are especially awaiting Gap Inc, after the US market closes. They anticipate a loss of five cents per share. Sales of the clothing retailer are expected at $3.82bn. But they also expect an update on the group's strategy, and on the recruitment of a new head after Sonia Syngal stepped out as CEO in July.

The group's executive chairman has since been covering as interim president and CEO, while the company looks for a permanent replacement.

Also in the retail sector, investors will be attentive to reports from Dollar Tree Inc, Dollar General Corpand Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Peloton Interactive Inc, meanwhile, is expected to post a loss of 76 cents per share on revenue of $682mn. Yesterday Peloton shares jumped after the group revealed it will now sell its exercise bike and other fitness accessories on Amazon.com Inc (All Sessions).

Commodities

Yesterday afternoon the EIA revealed a drop in US crude and fuel inventories last week. Crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations of a 933,000 barrel drop.

The inventory decline would have been larger were it not for another Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of more than eight million barrels.

US gasoline stocks fell by 27,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 661,000 barrels.

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 25 August

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 recover losses. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD on the rise ahead of Jackson Hole. And gold and Brent crude on the rise as natural gas falls into Fibonacci support.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Market data to trade on Friday: DAX; US crude

With little or no corporate data on Friday the focus will be around the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium where Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, will be speaking.

That is likely to be the pivot point for Friday’s trade, however, also watch the DAX around German consumer confidence and US crude ahead of the weekly Baker Hughes rig count.

 

 

 

look ahead Friday.PNG

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Markets steered towards the Jackson Hole symposium

Indices: We may see small gains at the start today in Europe after a lift on Wall St and APAC overnight, but it will be Fed chair Powell’s speech today at 3pmUK that could be key

FX: Watching the dollar basket as speeches at Jackson Hole expected to drill down into inflation and how central bankers are going to deal with it. German Gfk consumer confidence at 7am UK – ests of record low

Equities: Little corporate data out today – Peloton the big headline into the extended close last night. Gap Inc climbed 7% after Q2

Commods: Gold hesitant after 3 day’s of gains. Brent back below $100 but holding 200 day SMA

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: markets steered towards Jackson Hole Symposium

We may see small gains at the start today in Europe after a lift on Wall Street and APAC overnight, but the speech of Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, at Jackson Hole today at 3pm UK could be key.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 26 August

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq losses ease, but bearish outlook remains. In FX markets we look at EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. And gold, oil and coffee holding up ahead of Powell Jackson Hole speech.

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Link to comment

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

igtv.PNG

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Second day in a row of small gains off Friday’s big knock. Europe a little up on Monday’s close

FX: USD holding steady near recent highs. Today German CPI could be interesting to watch at 1pm which is expected to bolster the ECB’s case for higher rates very quickly – EURUSD on parity. GBPUSD lowest since Covid lows

Equities: Earnings BNZL OMU BBY HP HPE

Commods: Oil holding recent gains. Gold just off 5wk low    

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

igtv.PNG

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected up at the start despite losses on Wall St and APAC overnight

FX: USDJPY down after better than expected Japan ind prod, retail sales and consumer conf. Watching USD today ahead of ADP pvte US payrolls for June July & Aug. EURUSD above 1-1

Equities: Earnings: HP down 7% last night. GS lifts all Covid protocols and orders all staff back into the office. AAPL privacy chief leaves (maybe unassociated, but last week serious security vulnerabilities exposed for iPhones, iPads and Macs)

Commods: Little move across the board, oil lost all prior day’s gains, gold up off 5wk lows

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Recession fears stalking mkts again with realisation rates are still on a steep trajectory

Indices: The reality of higher rates coming back to bite equities with declines across the global markets. Europe expected to open lower after Europe’s bond market has its worst month ever

FX: USDJPY hits new 24yr high after poor Japan PMI data, but USD generally stronger against its basket. Cable breaks $1.16 support  

Equities: Earnings – BROA CPB. RIO buys rest of Turquoise Hill copper/gold project in Mongolia. DIS explores an AMZN Prime like membership DJ

Commods: Gold breaks $1711 support while oil holds 2nd day of big declines on low demand forecasts on recession fears. Base metals all down

 

 

 

 

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What markets to trade on Friday: US jobs and US Crude

As markets continue to watch the raised recessionary risk, the jobs market remains buoyant. IGTV will be following the release of Friday’s non-farm payrolls watching EUR/USD. Then watching US crude on the Baker Hughes rig count.

 

 

look ahead Friday.PNG

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

igtv.PNG

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Global indices remain under pressure as bond yields continue to rise, yesterday the 2yr UST yield rose to 3.516% - highest since Nov 2007. Europe expected on small gains after a later recovery on Wall St

FX: USD basket hit a new 2 decade high ahead of NFP data (IGTV will be live at 1:25pmUK). GBPUSD on its way to the March 2020 covid lows as USDJPY hits new 24 yr high

Equities: NVDA hit 17mth low after news of restrictions over the sale of some chips to China – then recovered as it became clear that some chips CAN be produced in China – US  U-Turn??

Commods: Oil bounce back from key support from the year on hopes OPEC+ will cut supply, downside fears are around global recession. Gold crashes through $1700 close to 18mth lows

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: VIX drops below the 200day SMA as risk assets rise. Europe holding Monday’s moves. Wall St back today after long weekend

FX: AUDUSD holds recent losses as RBA rises rates 50bps as expected to 2.35% highest in 7yrs. GBPUSD 2nd day of gains after Truss vote. BRC sales monitor overnight slows

Equities: Earnings: AHT ENQ SMDS. VOW has confirmed Porsche IPO will go ahead later this year  

Commods: Gold up for a 3rd day. Oil losing a little ground after climbing yesterday on OPEC+ token 100,000 barrel supply cut. Macron wants a windfall tax on energy companies 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: watching AUD/USD as RBA hikes rates by 50bps

AUD/USD holds recent losses as RBA raises rates 50bps as expected to 2.35% - the highest in 7-years. VIX drops below 200-day SMA as risk assets rise. VOW has confirmed Porsche IPO will go ahead later this year.

 

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 September 2022

Equity markets overview

We saw a very hesitant session on the equity markets in the APAC region, showing the lack of lead from the US, where stock and bond markets were closed yesterday.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its interest rate by 50-basis points (bps) as widely expected. The fifth straight hike takes the cash rate to 2.35%, its highest in seven years.

Equity markets are also hesitant across Europe this morning, after a difficult session yesterday. The DAX and CAC40 pared part of their earlier losses, as Russia decided over the weekend to shut the Nord Stream 1 gas supply indefinitely.

EUR tumbles

The euro also tumbled, falling for a couple of hours below 99 cents for the first time in two decades. Late on Monday French president, Emmanuel Macron, said he backs an EU-wide windfall tax on energy company profits. After a video call with German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, Macron said France is ready to supply gas to Germany over the winter. In return, Germany could contribute electricity to France.

New UK prime minister to freeze energy bills

In the UK, new prime minister Liz Truss is to line up a £130 billion plan to freeze UK energy bills.

According to British Retail Consortium, retail sales in the United Kingdom increased by 0.5% on a like-for-like basis in August year-on-year (YoY), slowing from a 1.6% increase in July. BRC chief executive, Helen Dickinson, noted that for the first time in recent months, clothing sales were sluggish and parents held back on back-to-school spending.

In Germany, factory orders fell 1.1% in July month-on-month (MoM), after a drop of 0.3% the previous month. In the US, the market awaits ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August at 3pm, forecast to fall to 55.5 in August from 56.7 in July.

Corporate overview

On the corporate front, investors will be attentive to Ashtead Group PLC at the open. The rental company specialising in industrial equipment posted a total revenue increase of 25% and confirmed its full-year (FY) profit expectations.

EnQuest PLC (SE) and DS Smith PLC also published quarterly figures.

Volkswagen AG (Pfd), meanwhile, has decided to go ahead with the Porsche Automobil Holding SE - Pfd IPO despite the current challenging economic context. The German carmaker announced its intention to complete the Porsche IPO by the end of the year.

According to Reuters, Volkswagen may extend the four-week period for buyers to express interest, or pull its plans altogether, should investors not show enough enthusiasm. Investors expect a valuation between €60 bn and €85 bn, which could place the IPO among the largest in German history and the biggest in Europe since 1999.

Commodities

Yesterday’s oil price rebound was short-lived. OPEC+ agreed on a production cut of 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October. Global demand is about 100 million barrels per day, so this reduction amounts to about 0.1% of global demand.

This decision confirmed what a Saudi Minister warned of a couple of weeks ago: the organisation is here to maintain price stability, and exaggerated oil price declines need to be addressed.

OPEC+ members also allowed their chairman, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman al-Saud, to intervene whenever necessary to stabilise crude markets through calling for a meeting at any time if necessary.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 6 September

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq upside unlikely to last. EUR/USD and GBP/USD move up and USD/JPY hits new two-decade high. And gold, natural gas and oil rallies stall.

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Market data to trade on Wednesday: Aussie GDP; Canada rates; Halfords update

As central banks raise rates, GDP is weakening. On Wednesday, the Australian ASX200 benchmark will be in focus around the Aussie GDP data. Then onto Canadian rates, watching USD/CAD.

On the corporate calendar UK auto and cycle retailer Halfords is in focus for a trading update.

 

 

 

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