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[MongiIG]

European indices expected to open up while the US dollar reversal continues

The US dollar reversal is picking up steam, with the Dollar Index testing the 50-day simple moving average.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 26 October 2022 

Indices overview

Europe is mostly up today after gains in New York and over much of Asia overnight. London is showing mixed signs.

Forex markets

The US dollar reversal is picking up steam, with the Dollar Index (DXY) testing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

EUR/USD is at a three week high, while USD/JPY is down as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) buys excess bonds.

Keep an eye out for USD/CAD as the Bank of China (BoC) may move 50-basis points on rates

Equities

Today is another big earnings day with reports coming from Barclays, Meta Platforms, Boeing Co , Standard Chartered, WPP, Deutsche Bank, and Ford Motor Co.

Last night Microsoft and Google both fell, while Visa rose.

Tesla CEO, Elon Musk meanwhile expects the Twitter acquisition deal to be completed by Friday.

Commodities

Gold is little moved this morning while oil is down for a third day.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 26 October

FTSE, DAX and Dow rally expected to fade before long. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD push through key resistance levels. And gold and natural gas prices recover but oil comes under pressure.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Market data to trade on Thursday: German confidence; ECB rate decision

With the recent trade above 1-1 parity, EUR/USD comes back into sharp focus for traders with the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision.

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor says to watch out for any unexpected hawkishness as the ECB plays catch up. Thereafter it’s all about earnings across the board.

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

 

Today’s coverage:

Indices: European mkts mixed at Wednesday’s highs as recent recovery continues.

FX: Watching EURUSD back up above 1-1 ahead of a possible 75bps ECB rate hike.

Equities: Earnings – CSGN 3Q earnings crash, still to come today LLOY ULVR SHEL AMZN AAPL CAT INTC. Last night F rose on its Q3 while META dropped 21%+

Commods: Gold holding gains at 3wk high. Oil holding Wednesday’s big rise on US exports and weaker USD

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

EUR/USD back above parity ahead of ECB rate decision

Watching EUR/USD as it moves back up above parity ahead of a possible 75-basis point rate hike by the ECB.

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 27 October 2022 

Indices outlook

European markets are mixed at Wednesday’s highs as the recent recovery continues.

Forex overview

We're watching EUR/USD as it moves back up above parity ahead of a possible 75-basis point (bps) rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). EUR/USD has been boosted higher on a weaker US dollar across the board as the market looks toward a less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed).

The ECB will meet later today to decide on rates. A 75-bps hike has been priced in.

Earnings overview

Credit Suisse's's third quarter (Q3) earnings crash as the group lost 4 billion Swiss francs, missing the average estimate of 413 million francs. The Swiss bank saw a group net asset outflow of 12.9 billion Swiss francs in Q3 in what it called challenging markets, amid negative headlines about its efforts to restructure after a series of scandals and risk-management failures.

Earnings expected today from Lloyds Banking Group, Unilever, Shell, Amazon, Apple, Caterpillar, and Intel.

Last night Ford Motor Co rose on its third quarter while Meta Platforms dropped 21%.

Commodities

Gold is holding gains at three-week highs.

Oil is meanwhile holding Wednesday’s big rise on US exports and a weaker dollar.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 27 October

Indices show signs of caution after recent rebound. Dollar weakness drives up EUR/USD and GBP/USD while weighing on USD/JPY. And gold, Brent crude and lumber remain within downtrend despite short-term gains.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Market data to trade on Friday: FRA & GER GDP; Japan rates; earnings

On the economic agenda EUR/USD will be the focus as we get to see the first numbers on French (FRA) and German (GER) gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3).

There’s also the Bank of Japan rate decision where markets are pricing in no move.

Otherwise, it’s earnings coming in thick and fast with Q3 numbers from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, NatWest, IAG, AirFrance, KLM, Airbus, and VW.

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe to open down as concerns return about the economy.

FX: USDJPY little moved at recent lows as BoJ keeps rates on hold. EURUSD back below parity after ECB keeps printing money France Q3 GDP 0.2% awaiting German GDP at 9amUK   

Equities: TWTR is sold – Musk does $44bln deal. Earnings: NWG IAG AF AIR VOW CVX XOM. AMZN down 16% on poor outlook. AAPL down 3% while INTC up 1%  

Commods: Gold holds recent gains. Platinum about to break to 5mth high. Iron ore near 11mth low. Oil little changed

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Amazon shares slump on poor Q4 outlook while Twitter sale completed

Amazon shares have fallen 20% on a poor outlook for the fourth quarter.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 28 October 2022

Indices overview

Europe is expected to open down as concerns about the economy return.

Currencies

USD/JPY is little moved at recent lows as the Bank of Japan (BoJ ) maintained both its ultra-low interest rates today and its dovish guidance, cementing its status as an outlier among global central banks tightening monetary policy, as recession fears dampen prospects for a solid recovery.

The BoJ did, however, revise up its price forecasts through 2024 and warned that risks were skewed to the upside, nodding to recent signs that inflationary pressure was broadening.

EUR/USD is meanwhile back below parity after the Euopean Central Bank (ECB) kept printing money. The ECB yesterday doubled its deposit rate to 1.5% to fight inflation and said that further policy tightening is necessary. Policymaker Gediminas Simkus said the ECB may need to raise its inflation projections further in December, adding that the looming discussion on winding down the ECB's asset purchase programme should focus on the possible start date and amounts by which the scheme would be reduced.

The French economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter (Q3), beating estimates. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast France's Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 0.1% on quarter. Year-on-year (YoY), the economy expanded by 1.0% in the third quarter. Domestic demand contributed 0.4% to GDP growth, while trade was a drag for growth.

German GDP data is expected at 9am UK.

Equities

Twitter has finally been sold as Tesla CEO, Elon Mush has concluded the $44 billion deal. Following the acquisition, Musk immediately fired top executives, including the CEO, while providing little clarity over how he will achieve the lofty ambitions he has outlined for the social media platform.

Earnings overview

Several companies report earnings today, among them IAG, NatWest, Air France, AAR Corp, Volkswagen, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil.

Amazon is meanwhile down 20% on poor outlook. Apple is down 3% while Intel is up 1%.

Commodities

Gold is holding recent gains while platinum is about to break to a five-month high.

Iron ore is nearing 11-month lows, while oil is little changed.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 28 October

Have the FTSE 100, DAX and Dow topped out after their recent bounce? EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD start to reverse lower after recent bounce. And gold, oil and natural gas fall back in early trading.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: After Friday’s big gains in 24-hr trade European mkts look to open up. APAC mostly higher

FX: USDCNH up for a third day as China’s zero covid policy pushes the economy back another step. Watching CAD, USD & GBP this week on rates

Equities: Nothing of note today, but earnings return tomorrow  

Commods: Gold down for a 3rd day. Oil down for a 2nd day. Wheat up over 5% after Russia withdraws from supply agreement. Iron Ore down at 11mth lows as China shrinks

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: robust end of month for US and APAC equity markets

After Friday’s big gains in 24-hour trade, European markets look to open up, while APAC indices are mostly higher.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 31 October 2022 

Indices overview

In the APAC region, indices closed higher, following the lead of US equity markets on Friday.

The Dow Jones is on track for its best month since 1976, up over 14% so far in October despite mixed third quarter (Q3) earnings season so far.

In China, the NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in October from 50.1 in September, missing market forecasts of 50.0. This was the lowest reading since July, as COVID restrictions affected output and exports. Non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 4 8.7 from 50.6 the previous month, the first contraction in the services sector since May.

In Japan, industrial production fell by 1.6% in September month-on-month (MoM), economists expected a 1% drop, retail sales rose by 4.5% in September year-on-year (YoY), better than the 4.1% forecast, and consumer confidence fell to 29.9 in October, its lowest level since August 2020.

Australia retail sales increased by 0.6% in September compared to August, in line with expectations.

European indices opened in positive territory. In Germany retail sales unexpectedly rose by 0.9% in September, after a 1.3% drop the previous month. Economists had anticipated a fall of 0.3%.

Later this morning investors await the latest eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) data. Economists anticipate a 0.2% rise compared to the previous quarter, after 0.8% in the second quarter (Q2).

Fed meeting

The biggest event of the week is undoubtedly the two-day Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting that will start on Tuesday. If a majority of economists expect a 75-basis point hike, they are also waiting for any signal that the Fed could slow the pace of its hikes in the coming months.

On Friday, the core PCE price index, an indicator highly regarded by the Federal Reserve, increased by 0.5% from the previous month and by 5.1% over the past 12 months. The monthly gain was in line with consensus, but the annual increase was below the 5.2% forecast.

Forex

The pound has been rallying last week, after the appointment of Rishi Sunak as prime minister. GBP/USD now trades above $1.16, while EUR/USD is at a seven-week low.

Commodities

WTI and Brent are trading lower this morning.

On Friday, Baker Hughes total rig count declined by three to 768. The number of oil rigs in operation fell by two to 610 while gas rigs fell by one to 158.

Chicago wheat futures jumped as Russia's withdrawal from a Black Sea export agreement raised concerns over global supplies.

The price of corn is also rising.

Finally, a word on cotton: the soft commodity posted a seventh week of declines last week, dropping to levels not seen since December 2021.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 31 October

Indices cautious as busy week begins. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD expected to start losing traction after recent bounce. And gold, Brent crude and lumber turn lower after recent rebound.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Market data to trade on Tuesday: China PMI; Aussie rates; BP earnings

The first of three rate decisions this week comes from Australia. Economists are expecting 50bps, however there’s a risk to this and IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at a trade around AUD/NZD.

Elsewhere, could we see more record lows for China’s currency around more PMI data?

Earnings include several all-sessions stocks including AMD, Pfizer, and Uber while in the UK it’s oil giant, BP.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Bear mkt rally rules BUT for how long and where will it end? IGTV did this interview yesterday: https://youtu.be/Sq-La6h5RlM

Indices: Bear mkt rally continues INDU completing its best month since 1976. Europe expected up FTSE100 best performer. APAC overnight HSI best performer (HSI down heavily in Oct) – mkts hoping Fed may indicate a marginal dovish bias

FX: USD mixed ahead of Fed tomorrow. AUD/NZD falls below 200-day SMA to 4mth low after RBA raises only 25bps.
Equities: Earnings – BP RTO PFE UBER AMD AIG LLY ARNC. Also AAPL down after losing online store and Info systems chiefs  

Commods: Gold up off near 2wk lows. Oil recovers after Monday’s loss. Watching Rough Rice near 31mth high as wheat and corn climb

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: buoyant start to the month for Hong Kong's Hang Seng

The bear market rally continues with INDU completing its best month since 1976. Hang Seng the best performer in APAC. Europe expected up with FTSE 100 the best performer.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 01 November 2022 

Indices overview

US indices ended the last session of October in negative territory, yet the Dow Jones recorded its biggest monthly increase since 1976, up 13.95%. The S&P 500 rose by 8% in the period, and Nasdaq composite gained 3.9%.

In the Asia Pacific region, equity markets closed higher, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng leading the gains. In Europe, indices open higher.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 25-basis points (bps) to 2.85%. It was the RBA's seventh straight rate hike, taking borrowing costs to a level not seen since April 2013. The Bank revised its inflation outlook, and now sees inflation peaking around 8% this year, compared to a previous forecast of 7.75%, adding it expects to raise interest rates further over the period ahead.

In China, Caixin manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the third straight month. The index rose to 49.2 in October, from 48.1 the previous months, to match the official NBS PMI data released yesterday.

According to an economist at the Caixin Insight Group, "The current domestic and international environments remain complicated and tough, and unfavourable factors affecting economic development have increased, in particular, the spread of the coronavirus in many regions significantly restricts both supply and demand."

Forex

The US dollar is on the back foot this morning as traders weigh the odds of a less aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed), which is starting its two-day meeting later today.

If the Fed is widely expected to deliver another 75 basis-point hike, many economists think that chairman Jerome Powell could signal that the Fed will slow the pace of its hikes in the coming months.

The dollar consolidation has had a positive effect on commodities, which are mostly up this morning.

Equities

In the UK, BP reported a better-than-expected third quarter (Q3) profit of $8.15 billion, boosted by very strong natural gas trading. For the full-year (FY), BP now expects upstream production to be slightly higher than 2021.

The company announced another $2.5 billion in share repurchases and continues to expect to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4bn per annum.

Ocado announced a partnership with South Korean company Lotte Shopping to develop Lotte's online. Lotte Group is one of the largest business conglomerates in South Korea, with a total annual revenue of around £45bn.

In the US, the earnings season continues. Pfizer is expected to post earnings of $1.44 per share, on revenue of $21.33bn, before market opens. Once again this quarter, its Covid-19 products, Comirnaty vaccine and antiviral pill Paxlovid, are expected to be the key contributors to the pharmaceutical giant's sales.

Comirnaty sales are expected to reach $2.74bn this quarter, while Paxlovid sales should rise to $8Bbn.

After the US closing bell, Uber Technologies is forecast to post a loss of 17 cents per share in the third quarter, to be compared to the $1.28 loss posted for the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is expected to rise by 67% year-on-year (YoY) to $8.12bn.

Advanced Micro Devices is also due to report earnings after the US close tonight. Expectations are of earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $6.68bn.

Commodities

Could rice be the soft commodity to watch?

We are starting to see reports saying that world rice production is set to drop in 2022-2023, for the first time in three years, as unfavourable weather conditions in China, South Asia and California will affect yields.

In China, the world's largest producer and consumer, output is set to drop due to the dry weather in southern provinces. Bad weather has also affected yields in India, and flooding in Pakistan has destroyed whole fields.

The situation is similar in the US, where rice production is expected to drop to a 30-year low due to drought in western states. Rice is the third most cultivated grain, and tightening supplies could support price inflation in many countries.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 1 November

FTSE, DAX and Dow push higher, but questions remain given bearish trend. Dollar weakens as FOMC begins its two-day meeting. And gold, Brent crude and lumber likely to remain under pressure despite short-term rise.

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

[MongiIG]

Market data to trade on Wednesday: US Fed; GSK earnings

The big event on which markets will swing pretty much all day will be the degree to which the Federal Reserve (Fed) is moving away from its hawkish intent. Will it indicate its big moves are over?

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at EUR/USD. Then earnings come from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Next (NXT).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Gains expected across Europe, UKX best performer,  despite declines on Wall St and a mixed day in the APAC region – tech stx worst performers – China locks down area where Foxxconn iPhone factory operates    

FX: USD mixed ahead of Fed rate decision. USDJPY down for 2^nd day as BoJ starts to signal small hints of restrictive policy at some point

Equities: Earnings from GSK NXT. ANB last night down 3.9% AMD up 3.2% on Q3

Commods: Gold up for a second day, oil up at 3 week highs

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: USD weakens ahead of Fed rate decision

USD weakens ahead of Federal Reserve rate decision while USD/JPY down for a second day as BoJ starts to signal small hints of restrictive policy.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 02 November 2022 

Equity market overview

US equity markets lost ground as tech stocks remained under pressure yesterday.

Amazon and Alphabet saw their share price fall yesterday while the likes of Apple and Microsoft also recorded smaller losses.

Indices overview

In the Asia-Pacific region, indices traded mostly higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose another 2.5% after having gained over 5% in Monday’s session. Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes showed overnight that if its policymaker decides to keep ultra-low interest rates and 10-year bond yields around 0%, members took note of growing inflationary pressure. One member even called for the need to eventually communicate an exit strategy from ultra-loose monetary policy.

European indices started today’s session higher, after recording gains in yesterday’s session.

The FTSE 100 was the best performer, posting gains of 1.29%.

Macro overview

Germany posted a better-than-expected trade surplus of €3.7 billion in September, as imports fell more than exports.

Today will be punctuated by two major events. At 12.15pm, the ADP survey is expected to reveal that 195,000 jobs have been created in the US private sector during the month of October.

Little reaction is to be expected as the market awaits the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting, and its decision on Fed fund rates to be unveiled at 6pm.

Economists anticipate another 75-basis point (bps) hike but also expect Fed chair, Jerome Powell to signal a decrease in the pace of rate increases in the coming months.

Corporate overview

On the corporate front, GSK beat analyst expectations and raised its full-year (FY) profit forecast.

Next reported full-price sales slightly ahead of its own expectations and maintained its earnings and sales forecast for the year.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose in extended trading hours despite having narrowly missed earnings expectations. The group posted earnings on 67 cents per share on revenue of $5.57Bbn. Earnings per share (EPS) was expected to reach 68 cents and revenue $5.62bn.

Earlier this month AMD posted a profit warning that sent its stock lower. Yesterday’s report showed that results from all four of the company’s business segments performed better that what AMD had anticipated.

Airbnb posted better than expected earnings and revenue in its third quarter (Q3). Earnings came in at $1.79 per share against analysts’ expectations of $1.44. The company posted revenue of $2.88bn, marginally higher the $2.84bn anticipated. Yet Airbnb shares fell in after-hours trading, as the group said that while cancellation rate were below 2020 and 2021 levels, they remained higher than that of 2019.

Today QUALCOMM and Robinhood Markets are scheduled to post their quarterly earnings.

Commodities

Oil prices rose after the publication of the latest API oil inventories. Crude oil stocks fell by 6.53 million barrels despite the release of 1.9 million barrels from the US strategic petroleum reserves.

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.64 million barrels, and distillates stocks increased by 865,000 barrels.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 2 November

FTSE, DAX and Dow rebound towards major inflection points. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD start to find their feet once again. And gold and natural gas rally, but oil drops back.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Market data to trade on Thursday: UK rates; BT, SBRY earnings

The last of three rate decisions comes at midday on Thursday. The Bank of England is widely expected to deliver a 75bps rate rise but watch for raised hawkish comments as inflation shows no sign of letting up.

Elsewhere, it is a fairly heavy day on earnings. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the share prices of Sainsbury’s (SBRY) and BT Group (BT).

Other earnings include Coinbase, BMW, Stellantis, and BNP Paribas.

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Fed hawks continue to rampage across all markets as the dominant feature sending risk assets down with traders searching out safety

Indices: Europe to open down after Wall St tumbles and APAC mkts also turn down

FX: Watching GBP ahead of the BoE rate decision at noon – 75bps expected to 3% for 8^th consecutive raise in rates. EURUSD new 2wk low

Equities: Earnings – BT SBRY COIN MRNA COP.  

Commods: Gold holds recent lows. Oil bucks the trend as it rises on fears that supply wont keep up. Wheat on the way down again as Russia r-enters the supply agreement from Crimea

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Equity markets hit by Jerome Powell's remarks

Fed hawks continue to rampage across all markets as the dominant feature sending risk assets down with traders searching out safety.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 03 November 2022 

FOMC

As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the Fed Fund rates target by another 75-basis points yesterday evening to a range of 3.75% to 4%, but it also signalled that future increases could be made in smaller steps, as the effect of previous hikes has not been fully felt yet.

"In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."

But Fed chair, Jerome Powell, made clear it was too premature to talk about pausing rates hikes. "We still have some way to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected."

Equity markets reacted to the announcement. US indices fell, led by technology stocks, having a ripple effect in the APAC region overnight where Hong Kong’s HSI dropped the most after two sessions of strong gains.

After an initial drop at the rates publication, the US dollar dropped, but strengthened during Powell’s press conference.

Gold mechanically followed the opposite path: initial gains were soon followed by a drop below $1,640.

Bank of England

Today, UK households are expected to be hit by the biggest jump in interest rates since Black Wednesday as the Bank of England (BoE) cranks up the restrictions on monetary policy to tackle double-digit inflation.

Markets expect the Bank's rate-setters to vote for a 0.75 percentage point increase to 3%, which would mark the eighth consecutive increase to borrowing costs.

Macro oveview

Elsewhere, Australia reported a larger than expected trade surplus, as exports grew stronger in September than imports.

In China, Caixin services fell deeper in contraction territory to 48.4 in October.

This morning at 10:00, the Eurozone unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% in September, and in the US at 12.30pm, initial jobless claims are expected. Economists expect 220,000 new claimants last week, after 217,000 new claimants the previous one.

For the past few weeks the trend has changed. From roughly mid-July to late-September we saw jobless claims drifting lower, but data from the last four weeks seem to show a change in trend.

Tomorrow sees non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for the month of October. Economists expect 200,000 job creations, a rise in the unemployment rate by 10bps to 3.6% and average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), 4.7% year-on-year (YoY).

Earnings

BT increased its savings target by £500 million to help fund the rising cost of building its fibre network as it met its forecast in the first half (H1). The group posted a 1% increase in revenue and core earnings of £3.9 billion, up 3%.

Sainsbury posted an 8% fall in profit in the first half, and like-for-like sales excluding fuel down 0.8%. The group however confirmed its guidance for the full year (FY).

Elsewhere in Europe, France's largest bank BNP Paribas posted a higher-than-expected net profit in the third quarter (Q3). Net income rose by 10.3% from a year earlier to €2.76bn. Revenues were up 8% at €12.3 billion.

Watch out for BMW at the open in Frankfurt. The carmaker saw a rise in its automotive EBIT margin in the third quarter to 8.9% from 7.8%. BMW reported a group net profit of €3.18bn, up nearly 23% on last year, and confirmed its outlook for an EBIT margin of 7-9% for the automotive segment.

Stellantis sales rose 29% in the third quarter, helped by higher volumes amid improved semiconductor supplies. Consolidated shipments rose 13% in the quarter to 1.281 billion units and the group confirmed its margin forecast for the year.

In the US, QUALCOMM , an all-sessions stock on the IG platform, published mixed results yesterday evening. Earnings per share (EPS) fell just short of estimates, while revenue came in just over expectations. But share price plunged in extended hours after the chipmaker revenue estimates for the current holiday quarter disappointed investors.

ConocoPhillips is expected to post earnings of $3.72 per share, to be compared to the $1.77 recorded in the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to reach $19.42bn, some of $8bn more than Q3 2021.

Moderna is scheduled to post its quarterly earnings before market open today. Analysts expect earnings of $4.81 on revenue of $4.63bn. The market is keen to know more about the group's guidance, especially after Pfizer earlier this week boosted its 2022 Covid vaccine forecast by $2bn to $34bn.

And tonight after the bell, Coinbase Global reports. Analysts forecast a loss of £2.36 per share on revenue of $655m. Crypto related stocks haven't had the best of times recently, as the prices of cryptocurrencies decline as interest rates go higher.

Commodities

Like after the publication of the API report on Tuesday evening, oil prices got a boost from the latest EIA inventories figures yesterday afternoon.

Crude oil stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels, gasoline stocks decreased by 1.3 million barrels. Only distillate products showed a small increase on 400,000 barrels.

Russia decided yesterday to reintegrate the Black Sea agreement, which means that ships have started to leave the region again to deliver their supplies.

Wheat and corn fell yesterday on the news.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 3 November

FTSE, DAX and Dow head lower, as Fed warns of higher rates. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD reverse lower as FOMC meeting sparks dollar resurgence. Gold, Brent and lumber risk further downside as rate hikes bring recessionary fears.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Market data to trade on Friday: US jobs; German factory orders

With few, if any, big corporate news headlines due on Friday, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the economic calendar.

The DAX could come into play around the potential for a downside risk to German factory orders while US jobs at 12:30pm UK are the potential swing point for the FX markets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Is China ready to drop zero covid policy?

Indices: Chinese mkts on for best week in 2yrs. Europe expected to open up – UKX 6wk high  

FX: Commodity FX doing well USD down for 1^st day in 6. Small recovery in GBP after yesterday’s negative rection to UK recession concerns

Equities: Earnings – KER GLE. Last night Q3 earns - SBUX up 2.3%, COIN down 3.4% & PYPL down 12.9%  

Commods: Base metals pretty much all up on hopes for increased China demand, oil up over 2%. Gold up over 1%

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: currency traders gear up for non-farm payrolls

Economists expect 200,000 job creations for the month of October, which would be the smallest gain since December 2020.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 04 November 2022 

Indices overview

Indices in Hong Kong and mainland China jumped overnight on speculation that China could loosen its strict zero-Covid policy. The Hang Seng rose as much as 7%.

The rumours also had an impact on commodity currencies. The Australian dollar was the best performer, rising against all major currencies. Base metals are also benefiting from these speculations.

Forex

GBP/USD has pared some of yesterday's losses overnight. Yesterday the pound plummeted after the Bank of Englang (BoE) Governor, Andrew Bailey, warned the markets that the British economy might not grow for another two years, a situation not seen in 100 years.

Despite this gloomy outlook, the BoE raised its interest rate by 75-basis points (bps) to 3% in an effort to control inflation, currently more than five times higher than its target.

Germany factory orders fell by 4% in September month-over-month (MoM), while economists expected a smaller decline of 0.5%. Later this morning, Eurozone producer price index (PPI) is expected to rise by 2.7% in September MoM.

Currency traders are gearing up for the final big event of the week: non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for the month of October. Economists expect 200,000 job creations, which would be the smallest gain since December 2020.

The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in September, and average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% MoM, 4.7% year-over-year (YoY).

Earnings

Societe Generale, the third biggest bank in France, joined European rivals in posting a higher-than-expected third quarter (Q3) net income as market volatility boosted trading revenues. Net income reached €1.5 billion, well above a Refinitiv consensus forecast of €1bn.

According to the Wall Street Journal, quoting people close to the matter, Kering is in advanced talks to buy fashion brand Tom Ford. In early August, the Journal reported that Estee Lauder was in talks to buy Tom Ford in a $3 billion deal. But now it seems that the French luxury group, owner of Gucci, could be reaching a deal soon.

PayPal shares slipped by 13% in extended hours trading, after the online payment firm cut its annual revenue growth forecast. PayPal posted an adjusted profit of $1.08 per share for the third quarter, higher than analysts' expectations of 96 cents a share, but lower than the $1.11 posted in the same quarter a year ago.

Paypal boss, Dan Schulman, said in a statement yesterday that he expected e-commerce to be “pretty muted” in the fourth quarter, and in anticipation of a broader economic downturn, the group cut it adjusted growth outlook to 10% from 11% previously for the year.

Paypal is not the only one to have issued conservative forecasts reflecting an expected tightening in consumer spending. Last week, Mastercard also forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the holiday quarter.

Coinbase reported third quarter revenue that missed analysts' estimates, and the cryptocurrency exchange had a wider-than-expected loss. Coinbase posted an adjusted loss $2.43 per share. That's lower than analysts’ expectations of a $2.40 loss. During the same quarter a year ago, the crypto exchange posted earnings of $1.62 per share.

Revenue also missed forecasts, falling to $590.3 million, which is less than half what the group generated a year ago, and below estimates of $645mn.

Watch out for Starbucks shares at the open today. The group posted earnings of 81 cents per share, versus analysts' expectations of 72 cents. Revenue was also higher than expected, up 3.3% at $8.41bn versus forecast of $8.31bn. Global same-store sales increased 7%, fuelled by increased spending in its home market in the US where same-store sales growth was 11%, which was the result of people spending more on average and a slight uptick in traffic.

Commodities

Oil prices rose in excess of 2% this morning, and are on track to clinch a third consecutive week of gains.

Oil traders await Baker Hughes data tonight. US oil and natural gas rigs fell last week but edged up in October in the first monthly increase since July as drillers largely held activity steady despite high energy prices and soaring profits.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 4 November

FTSE, DAX and Dow showing signs of topping out. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD stabilise after recent declines. And gold, oil and natural gas move up in early trading.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: European markets expected to open down after big gains on Friday. APAC higher apart from China where both exports and imports fell in October for 1^st time since May 2020 (covid restrictions)

Equities: WSJ says META will start laying off 000’s workers this week. AAPL trims iPhone sales targets as demand cools. Earnings – LYFT Q3. RYA best ever profits, but below forecasts and outlook not as good as ests

FX: DXY holding losses on Friday down by widest margin since March 2020.

Commods: All commodities climbed after USD dropped.