News and Trade Ideas (Commodities)

[MongiIG]

Gold price and oil price both edge lower

Gold has stalled in its move upwards while oil is continuing to head lower for the time being.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 16 July 2021. IG

Gold

Despite signs of caution earlier in the week the gold price has recovered and moved to a new one month high. It has even topped the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1826.

While some weakness has been seen this morning there are few signs of a reversal as yet, which would develop with a drop below $1810. Further gains target the 50-day SMA at $1837, and then on to $1863.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

The price continues to drop back, having come under pressure, but the uptrend is still firmly intact. A further decline towards the 50-day SMA is possible, but would still create a higher low.

Meanwhile, short-term trendline resistance from the peak would suggest resistance around $73.80 in the event of any recovery in coming sessions.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold stumbles as oil edges down

Gold prices are attempting to recover from the recent downward move, while oil’s current pullback has reached the 50-day moving average.

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 

 

Gold

Gold's rally has encountered a serious check, stalling at $1830 and dropping back towards $1800.

This is a possible lower high, but it may still be too early to tell. Further declines below $1800 would reinforce the negative view, while a bounce back above $1815 would begin to provide hope that the brief pullback is at an end.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil has returned to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $69.90, after a run higher from late May that saw it reach fresh three-year highs.

This retracement establishes a potential higher low in due course, since the uptrend is firmly intact. Further declines below $69.90 would head towards $67.85 and then $65.46.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude weakening after initial rebound

Gold and Brent crude are losing traction following a period of stabilisation in the wake of Monday’s declines.

Source: Bloomberg

Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 July 2021 

 

Gold losing traction as it attempts to recover

Gold fell back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level yesterday, with the price turning upwards from marginally above the prior swing-high of $1791.

While that managed to stave off a bearish breakdown signal, there is a risk of another move lower as price turns lower here. As such, the outlook will be better determined by a break through either $1791 (bearish) or $1834 (bullish).

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude easing back after initial Fibonacci support rebound

Brent crude found support on the 76.4% Fibonacci support level yesterday, following a sharp decline at the start of the week.

While that rebound did start to gain some traction at first, we are seeing some selling pressure come into play here. As such, the ability to remain above that $67.60 level will be key to determining where we go from here.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold’s bounce stalls as oil recovers

Expectations of more gains in gold have been stymied, while oil prices have made further gains after stabilising yesterday.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 July 2021 

Gold

Hopes of a rebound in gold have been dashed after Tuesday’s session saw the price retreat from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1825, simultaneously failing to hold the highs of the session.

While a full-blown retracement has yet to develop it does look rather unpromising for the longs; a rally back above $1820 would help to revive the bullish view, while sellers expect further declines below $1800 that will strengthen the bearish case.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil found its footing yesterday, recovering from a brief trip below Monday’s low.

It continues to hold above the 100-day SMA ($66.52), giving hope for bulls that a higher low can be formed, with a new push back to the early July highs contemplated in due course. This view is negated if the price reverses course and falls back below $65.

Source: ProRealTime

 

 

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

[MongiIG]

Zinc, copper and aluminium prices at risk as China plans sale of strategic reserves

China plans to auction reserves of copper, zinc, and aluminium in a bid to drive down prices. Will this result in another leg lower after recent declines?

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Market trend Price China Auction Zinc

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 July 2021 

China plans to auction key commodities in a bid to drive down prices

Recent talk that the Chinese will release reserves of key commodities to the market have provided another reason to temper bullish sentiment for one of the biggest areas of upside seen throughout 2020.

Chinese demand has been a key driver of gains in commodity prices, yet that rise in underlying input prices have ultimately led to a situation where growth is being stifled as a result.

Thus, today's announcement from China is just the latest in a protracted attack on key commodity valuations, with the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials opting to auction 170,000 tonnes of metals from state reserves on 29 July.

That consists of 30,000 tonnes of copper, 90,000 tonnes of aluminium and 50,000 tonnes of zinc. With that in mind, we could see some further selling pressure come into play as we move forward.

With that in mind, it is worthwhile looking at these assets to gauge whether they are at risk of a bearish reversal or simply set to maintain the bullish momentum established last year.

Source: visualcapitalist.com

 

Zinc

Zinc is one commodity that appears to be at risk here, with price having broken down through trendline support back in mid-June. That raises the risk that the subsequent rebound falls short of the prior high.

With that seemingly having occurred as the zinc price rolls over from the 76.4% Fibonacci zone, there is a chance we could see another leg lower from here.

Watch for a decline through the $2.904 support level for that bearish momentum to come into play.

Source: ProRealTime

 

Copper

A similar breakdown through trendline support for copper prices highlights the potential for a deeper decline going forward. Despite that trendline breakdown, the uptrend remains intact given the pattern of higher lows.

That highlights the importance of the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which has provided the absolute low of this pullback thus far ($4.0958). However, while price initially rallied from that level of support, we have subsequently seen the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level drive price down once again.

That decline could take us back into the wider $4.0945 low from June, which would provide a key hurdle to overcome is the bears are to remain in charge. As such, watch for further short-term downside, with a rise through the $4.599 level required to bring about a more positive outlook.

However, we would require a move below $3.8505 to bring a wider reversal signal for this key commodity.

 

Source: ProRealTime

 

Aluminium

Aluminium prices have been unaffected by today’s news thus far, with initial weakness being recovered. The risk-off moves seen this week led to a break below the $2432 level.

However, that does not necessarily end the recent bullish trend, with a break back below $2355 required for such a wider bearish picture to come into play.

Until then, there is a good chance we see the price turn higher from this deep retracement to continue the bullish pattern seen over recent months.

Source: ProRealTime

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

[MongiIG]

Gold declines as oil price makes headway

Gold is still edging lower but oil is enjoying strong gains.

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 

 

 

The gold price continues to drop back, although without much enthusiasm.

A move below $1795 is still needed to develop a more bearish view, while a recovery above $1810 would begin to suggest another push towards $1830 is in the offing.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent

Yesterday’s sharp rebound carried the price back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $71.99, and was accompanied by a bullish stochastic crossover which reinforces the bullish view and the higher low from earlier in this week.

Further gains head towards trendline resistance from the July high. The bearish view has been negated with Wednesday’s bounce for the time being.

Source: ProRealTime

 

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

[MongiIG]

Gold price attempts to bounce as oil maintains upward move

Gold is aiming to recover lost ground while oil is targeting further gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021 

Gold

The continued defence of the area around $1800 points to a possible recovery for gold that will target $1830 and higher.

It will be hard to develop a more bearish view unless the price does manage to clear $1790.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Like indices, crude seems set for further gains, with some resistance from the July high unlikely to last long.

Above $73 the price targets the month’s high at $76.47.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold looks to break higher as oil price consolidates following gains

Gold is looking to make headway while oil is consolidating following its recent surge.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 July 2021 

Gold tests trendline support

The gold price dipped into the zone below $1800 last week but found buyers, providing a floor, but a firm break above the downtrend line seen since 15 July has yet to take place.

It is however testing the line in early trading, and above $1815 the price takes on a more bullish view. Sellers will be shut out of the picture unless they can get the price back below $1790.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI at a crucial point

Having surged from last week’s low the price is now edging back down, as the sequence of lower highs from earlier in the month comes back into play.

A move back above $72.70 would be a bullish development, and then open the way to more gains towards $75 and $77. Sellers will look for a move back below $70 that opens the path towards the recent lows.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold falls back into support as Brent crude pushes into Fibonacci resistance

Gold falls back into key support, while Brent crude has rallied up into Fibonacci resistance in its bid to regain previous highs.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 27 July 2021 

Gold drifts back into key support level

Gold has been on the back foot once again, with price moving back into the key $1790 support level. A break below that level would bring a bearish picture into play following a period of consolidation.

However, with price typically managing to post a short rebound from this level, it is worthwhile expecting another move higher until we see $1790 break.

Source: ProRealTime

 

Brent crude rallies back into Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has been on the rise since a pullback into the wider 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $67.60. That rally has brought us back into yet another 76.4% level at $74.12. The wider uptrend points towards a likely push up through this level in a bid to regain the previous peaks of $76.30 and $77.57.

However, whether that will come in a straight line remains to be seen. For now, we need to see whether price respects that Fibonacci resistance level or simply pushes through.

To the downside, any pullback would need to break the $72.14 level to bring a more bearish short-term outlook. Until then, there is a good chance we see further upside come into play.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold stabilises above support as oil holds its ground

Both gold and oil are consolidating, the former after losses and the latter after gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021

Gold

The gold price fell back from Monday’s high, but once again found support around $1795.

The rally from Tuesday’s low appears to be stalling below $1808, below Monday’s peak, suggesting selling momentum remains strong for now. But the continued formation of a base around $1795 does at least suggest downside will be limited in the short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil has avoided a renewed turn lower for now, but a break above trendline resistance from the recent highs remains unbroken.

However, losses below $70.50 have been contained, which leads the bullish side to have the upper hand for a time. That being said, a breakout above $72 is needed to revive bullish momentum.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude head higher as dollar weakens

Gold and Brent crude manage to push through resistance, as the dollar weakens in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 29 July 2021 

Gold drives higher from key support

Gold has managed to push sharply higher from the $1790 support level overnight, with the Federal Open Committee Meeting (FOMC) bringing a decline for the US dollar.

That helps to alleviate the pressure on gold for now, with price seemingly heading back into the recent uptrend seen throughout early July. Near-term resistance comes in the form of $1823, yet there is a risk that we post a retracement before long given the sharp moves seen overnight.

In either case, the uptrend does remain intact, with a break back below $1790 required to negate that recent bullish pattern.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude pushing through resistance as it builds on recovery

Brent crude has pushed up through the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level of $74.12, helping to alleviate fears of a bearish reversal. The recent declines seen around the OPEC+ talks are behind us, and we look likely to continue the long-term uptrend from here.

As such, while a move through $76.30 would be required to fully eradicate this recent selloff, it makes sense to favour bullish positions unless price falls through the prior swing-low (currently $73.12).

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude continue to gain ground as the dollar declines

Gold and Brent crude continue to rise, with key resistance levels coming into play as we close out the week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 30 July 2021 

Gold rallies into key resistance level

Gold has taken advantage of the dollar decline, with the precious metal rising back into the key $1834 resistance level.

The ability to break through that level will be key here, with a reversal or break providing a clue of where we go from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude looks likely to continue recovery trend

Brent crude has been on the rise over the course of the week, with price pushing up through the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level yesterday.

That points towards a likely rise through the $76.30 swing-high before long, with a bullish outlook in place unless price falls back below the latest swing low of $73.12.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude weaken after recent gains, but bullish structure remains

Gold and Brent crude weaken after recent gains, but the bullish momentum may not be over quite yet.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 02 August 2021 

Gold pullback brings questions around Fibonacci support

Gold has been on the back foot since Thursday’s peak, with the precious metal falling back into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $1806.

The recent rise back into the $1834 level does point towards a potential continuation of the recent bullish phase, although the break through $1789 would instead provide a bearish double top formation.

As such, there is an argument on either side, with the respect or lack of respect shown to the Fibonacci levels at $1806 and $1799 proving key in telling us where we go from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude pullback unlikely to last

Brent crude has weakened in early trade today, with price falling into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $74.97.

The ongoing uptrend points towards the bulls coming back into play around these levels, with a break below the $73.12 swing-low required to bring a more negative look into play.

Until then, further upside looks likely to take hold in a bid to push back into the key $76.30 resistance level.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude start to regain ground after Monday weakness

Gold and Brent crude look to regain ground after recent weakness, but do recent losses point towards further downside to come?

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 August 2021 

Gold attempting to regain ground after 61.8% retracement

Gold has started to steady itself after the recent decline into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $1806.

Coming off the back of a rally into the $1834 region, there is a chance we could see the bulls come back into play before long. Greater confidence comes into play with a rise through $1819 bringing greater confidence that this pullback is over.

Ultimately this current pullback does look like a retracement and precursor to further gains unless price drops back below the $1790 support level.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude starts to gain strength after decline into key support

Brent crude has been on the back foot in the beginning of the week, with price falling back down into the $7214 support level established last Monday.

The decline through $73.12 does raise question marks over the potential for further downside following the recent breakdown. A break below the $72.14 level would bring greater confidence in a more protracted breakdown.

Nonetheless, for the time being, we are seeing the bulls come back into play as price aims to regain ground lost yesterday.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude on the rise after recent weakness

Gold and Brent crude attempt to regain ground, with recent losses likely to result in another move higher before long.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 August 2021

Gold continuing to stabilize around 61.8% retracement

Gold remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, following the decline seen on Friday. The ability to remain above that level is key here, with a move through the $1820 threshold bringing a bullish breakout signal.

As such, keep an eye out for a potential recovery for this market, with a break back below $1790 required to bring a more bearish picture into play.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude attempts to regain ground after recent selloff

Brent crude has been on the back foot over the course of the week thus far, with the break below $72.14 providing a bearish signal yesterday.

However, this pullback is viewed as a likely retracement of the wider rally from $67.06. As such, the bulls are expected to come back into play before long, but there is still a risk of further short-term downside.

With that in mind, the rise seen this morning remains at risk of fading, with a break up through $73.42 required to bring a more reliable bullish signal into play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude likely to find support following period of weakness

Gold and Brent crude fall back down towards key support, with bulls expected to come back into play before long.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 05 August 2021 

Gold continues to consolidate above Fibonacci support

Gold has been consolidating above the $1806 Fibonacci support level over the course of the week thus far.

That level is going to be key as we see the precious metal head back down towards $1806 once again. Below that point, we would look for support to come into play around $1800 and $1790.

Only with a break below that lower level would see us break out from this month-long period of consolidation. Until then, the weakness we have seen recently looks likely to provide us with a another turn higher before long.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude tumbles back towards key Fibonacci support level

Brent crude has been hit hard over the course of the week, with price falling back below the 61.8% Fibonacci support level to bring the 76.4% Fib level into play. The wider trend of higher lows does provide expectations that we will see the bulls come back into play before long.

With that in mind, watch out for a potential bullish reaction from the 76.4% Fibonacci level around $69.07. Long positions are favoured until price breaks back below the $67.06 low.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude expected to head higher despite recent declines

Gold and Brent crude have been on the back foot, yet the bulls are expected to kick in once again.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 06 August 2021

Gold declines into SMA and Fibonacci support

Gold has slipped back into the confluence of 76.4% Fibonacci and 200-SMA (simple moving average) support in the latter part of this week.

With the recent rally failing to overcome the $1834 swing-high, there is a chance we are simply looking at a range or potential double top formation coming into play.

However, this confluence of support is perhaps the final notable area of support in play if we are to establish another higher low. A bullish view holds unless price drops below $1790 support.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude selloff greeted by new buyers

Brent crude has started to regain ground after a deep retracement throughout the first half of the week. The wider uptrend does highlight the strong likeliness that we will ultimately resolve with another move higher.

With that in mind, whether or not we see another short-term move lower, a bullish view holds unless we break below $67.06.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude rebound after yesterday’s sharp declines

Gold and Brent crude have both suffered heavy losses at the beginning of the week, but will the recovery continue to hold after initial gains?

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 August 2021 

Gold stabilizes after decline into key support

Gold has seen plenty of volatility at the start of this new week, with the capitulation seen yesterday bringing about a fresh rebound to close the gap.

Despite finding some stabilization since that collapse, we have seen price gradually wane yesterday. That bearish sentiment holds unless we see price rise up through the $1752 high established yesterday.

Until then, there is a good chance we see another turn lower from here, with a break below $1724 required to bring about a bearish continuation signal.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude starts to find buyers from Fibonacci support

Brent crude is on the rise following yesterday’s decline into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $67.60. A break back below the $67.06 - $67.60 support zone would certainly raise the likeliness of a more protracted pullback for Brent.

Until then, there is a good chance of us reversing higher from here. Greater confidence in that recovery comes with a rise up through the $72.29 swing-high.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold edges higher while oil bounce continues

Gold’s volatility has continued to subside, with the price edging up, while oil has managed to make further headway after bouncing from support.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 August 2021 

Gold

Dip buyers continue to push gold slightly higher, but there is still much ground to be made up before it can be said that a more bullish view has emerged.

Further gains in the direction of $1760 would be welcome for longs, but a close above $1765 is still needed to firmly establish the bullish view. A renewed decline still targets $1685 support.

ProRealTime

WTI

The bounce from support at $65.46 continues, leaving the impression that a double-bottom has formed. Now the price targets trendline resistance from the July peak, suggesting a test of resistance nearer to $71.

ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude on the rise, yet questions remain

Gold and Brent crude continue to gain ground after a torrid Monday session, but will we break resistance to bring a more confident wider outlook?

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 August 2021 

Gold continues to recover after decline into support

Gold has been on the rise over the course of the week, with price gaining ground after a sharp decline towards the late-March low of $1678.

Yesterday’s consumer price index (CPI) reading provided a helping hand to this move higher, with price closing its Monday gap to reach $1759 resistance. The wider trend highlights a potential bearish trend coming back into play before long. Thus, we would ultimately require a break through $1834 to negate the bearish price action seen over the past two months.

Until then, short-term upside looks likely but we should consider the potential for key resistance around $1759, $1776, and $1798.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to gain ground from Fibonacci support

Brent crude has similarly been on the rise after a difficult Monday, with price having tumbled back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level once again.

A rise up through $72.29 brings yet another bullish signal as it would point towards a likely recovery back towards the $76-77 region. Certainly, it makes sense to remain cautious given the recent trend of lower highs.

However, a break through that $72.29 level would bring greater confidence that we have bottomed out.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gasoline and crude uptrend remain despite Biden calls for OPEC to help quell inflation pressures

Inflation figures highlight importance of energy prices, but Biden’s calls for OPEC to help drive gasoline and crude prices lower look to have fallen on deaf ears.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Inflation OPEC Joe Biden Consumer price index Petroleum

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 August 2021 

US inflation hurts the dollar

The past 24 hours have seen a big focus on US inflation, with headline consumer price index (CPI) remaining at 5.4% while producer price index (PPI) rose to a 12-year high of 7.8%.

One of the main drivers of that rise in inflation comes from the energy prices. The PPI breakdown below highlights exactly that, with energy making up the highest driver of upside.

Source: IG

 

Similarly, the CPI provided another reminder of the role played by rising energy prices, with gasoline in particular an area of concern.

Source: IG

 

With rising energy prices comes two-fold concerns for US President Joe Biden. Higher inflation raises the risk of tighter monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) likely to pay close attention to this raft of inflation data points.

Meanwhile, the rise in energy prices has seen a 50% rise for gasoline prices at the pump. That will undoutably drain political support for Biden and reduce economic growth capacity as elevated fuel costs reduce the spending power of the everyday consumer.

With that in mind, it should come as no surprise to see Joe Biden address rising energy prices just as Donald Trump did before him. Biden’s call for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise production in a bid to drive down prices appears to have fell on deaf ears for now. That may change down the line, yet OPEC already have plans to raise production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), a month.

Thus, unless Biden is willing to perform a U-turn on his bid to lessen the nations reliance on oil and gas production, there are questions over whether the price will reverse on its own.

Gasoline uptrend remains for now

Gasoline has been on a very consistent rise, with the price hitting a six-year high at the end of July. While we have seen a pullback over the course of the past fortnight, this brings us back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level.

A break below the $2.06 support level takes us out of the uptrend, with a bullish outlook in play until that breakdown occurs.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent Crude outlook remains bullish despite recent volatility

Brent Crude has seen plenty of choppiness over the course of the past month, with price falling back into 76.4% Fibonacci support.

While the initial rally has faltered once again in early-August trade, we are finding support at that same Fibonacci support level this week. As such, the uptrend does still remain intact unless the price breaks below the $67.06 and $64.52 support zone.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold moves higher while oil rally fizzles out

Gold continues to claw back losses from earlier in the week, but oil has seen its bounce lose momentum.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 August 2021 

Gold

The gold price continues to climb, reversing much of the negativity from earlier in the week. As noted before, a recovery above $1765 is still needed to allow longs to breathe more easily, but it has been a good week overall for the bulls.

Further gains target $1800 and then $1830. So far there is no sign of a reversal, but if one develops $1685 remains the first downside target.

Source:ProRealTime

WTI

Hopes of further gains for WTI have been dashed for now as the price drops back from Wednesday’s highs.

A continued recovery above $70 would be necessary to revive the bullish view, while on the downside sellers will be waiting to see if the price can move back below $65 to open the way to a bigger decline.

Source:ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold targets further gains as oil price sinks again

Gold prices have made further headway after an impressive recovery, while oil is sinking once again.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 16 August 2021 

Gold

Last week saw a remarkable drop then recovery for gold, which ended up almost $100/oz higher from Monday’s low. This bounce puts the price in a strong position, even with some weakness in early trading this morning.

Renewed gains target $1802 and then $1833, backed up by rising stochastics and a potential bullish moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossover.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Hopes of a continued bounce have been dashed, with the price heading back towards support at $65.46.

Trendline resistance from late July continues to hold back upside progress, with a breakout above $68 needed to reverse the bearish view of the past three sessions.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude look likely to reverse recent trends

Gold at risk after rally into resistance, while Brent crude weakness looks likely to resolve with a move higher before long.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 August 2021 

Gold rallies into Fibonacci and SMA resistance

Gold has been on the rise over the course of the past week, with price pushing back into the confluence of 76.4% Fibonacci and 200-simple moving average (SMA) resistance.

The downtrend seen over the course of the past two months provides the basis for a potential leg lower from here, with a decline through $1771 bringing a fresh bearish signal into play.

With that in mind, there is a good chance we will see gold start to weaken from here, where a rise through $1831 would be required to end this recent wider downtrend.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to drift lower, but bulls expected to return

Brent crude has been weakening over the six weeks since topping out at $77.57.

That pullback looks like a potential retracement, and thus the respect of the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $67.60 is important within that story.

A rise through $71.69 would bring about a more reliable bullish outlook for Brent, bringing an end to the recent trend of lower highs.

[MongiIG]

Gold’s rally fizzles as oil edges cautiously higher

Gold has seen its steep bounce slow to a crawl, while oil prices have edged higher after several days of losses.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 August 2021

Gold

Gains have stalled over the past two days, although the bounce from last week’s low is still firmly intact.

However, a drop back below $1760 would point towards a lower high being created, reviving the bearish case. Further gains would target $1830.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Losses have slowed as the price nears support around $65.46; a continued defence of this area of support would hand the initiative back to the buyers once again.

On the bearish side, a close below $65 is required to open the way to $61.67 and the next potential downside target.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold’s rally still stalled while Brent crude slumps to two-month low

Gold prices have failed to make further headway, while Brent crude is under pressure as the dollar strengthens.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 August 2021 

Gold

The price has yet to roll over conclusively, but with gains having stalled at $1790 and the dollar strengthening, a retracement is eminently possible.

A lower high below $1800 reinforces the bearish view, and buyers will need to recover $1800 and then $1810 to maintain the bullish outlook created over the past week.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent

The price has fallen below the lows from July and early August, with further declines likely towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $63.19.

The next level of support is $64.50, an area tested in April and May. Trendline resistance from the late July peak comes into play at $68.80 and could hold back any upside in the short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

 

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[MongiIG]

Gold steady as oil keeps on falling

While gold has held its ground, oil prices are still on a downward move.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 August 2021 

Gold

The price refuses to roll over, and instead is consolidating after its strong run higher.

Having mostly held its ground all week there is little sign that a downside move is going to develop, at least for now, and instead we may see fresh attempts to push on above $1790/$1800.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

There is as yet no sign of a firm bounce in WTI, which has continued to push lower despite yesterday’s small recovery.

The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $60.63 continues to loom on the horizon, as an area of possible support.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and WTI edge higher in opening trade

Oil has begun to move up after a week of losses, while gold prices are continuing to hold their ground.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 August 2021 

Gold

The expected decline in gold refuses to materialise, and instead the price continues to hold above $1775.

Renewed upside requires a move back above $1790, breaching short-term trendline resistance, and opening the way to $1800 and higher. For the time being, the bearish case is in abeyance, but would be revived with a move below $1770.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil prices remain under pressure, having fallen further on Friday even as equity markets rallied.

Some small gains this morning have reversed some of the negativity, but much more upside is required to breach trendline resistance from the mid-month high.

Even then, it will take a move above $66 to allay fears of further declines. A move back below Friday’s low brings the 200-day simplve moving average (SMA) into play at $60.74, and then down to $58.80 support.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude regaining lost ground, with key resistance up ahead

Gold continues to regain ground, while Brent crude spikes higher after a recent decline into key support.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 August 2021 

Gold rises through Fibonacci resistance to engage descending trendline

Gold managed to break up through the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level yesterday, with the consolidation and lack of downside momentum around that level signalling the potential for a bullish break.

Nonetheless, the bulls aren’t out of the woods quite yet, with a descending trendline coming into play here. As such, a rise through trendline and $1831 resistance will be key to providing a more long-lasting bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, should this trendline resistance hold, a break below $1774 would bring a fresh bearish outlook for the index.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude surging after decline into key support

Brent crude has regained ground at the beginning of this new week, with the recent selloff taking us back into the crucial 6452 support level. A break below that level would have brought a wider bearish picture into play.

However, for now we are seeing the bulls come back into play. The risk for bulls is that we do remain within a trend of lower highs, with the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at $70.03 thus playing a key role if we continue to rise.

Ultimately, we need to see price break through the $71.70 resistance level to bring an end to this bearish short-term trend.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold slips below $1800 as oil prices look for further gains

While gold has fallen back from the highs of the week, oil prices are aiming for more gains after a strong start to the week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 August 2021 

Gold

An attempt to maintain gold's rally above $1800 has fizzled out for the time being, and we have seen further small losses this morning.

A move below $1780 would reinforce the view that this is a lower high, and could spell the beginning of a fresh retracement.

Bulls will want to see a move back above $1810, although this may yet be a consolidation move before further gains.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil's sharp gains over the past two days have helped to restore some measure of bullishness, although there is still more to be done.

Early August highs at $69.38 are the first target to watch, followed by the late July peak at $73.50.

Source: ProRealTime