News and Trade Ideas (Commodities)

[MongiIG]

Brent exceeds $90 mark, cotton on the rise for 9th week

Brent crude oil trades at new seven-year highs on geopolitical tensions and supply tightness, while the cotton uptrend has $134.00 in its sights.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 04 February 2022 

Brent breaks through psychological $90 barrier

Brent crude oil has made a new a seven-year high, so far at $91.38, as geopolitical tensions and supply tightness keep oil prices elevated, taking year-to-date gains to more than 20%.

Immediate resistance along the upper wedge formation line can be found at $91.54 today. If bettered, however, the April 2013 low at $96.81 would represent the next technical upside target, ahead of the psychological $100 mark.

Support is seen between the January high at $90.32 and the minor psychological $90 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

Cotton up for 9th straight week, gunning for $134.00

There is no stopping the steep uptrend in NY cotton which is trading at levels last seen in June 2011, up over 12% year-to-date.

The 50% retracement of the 2011 to 2020 descent at $134.00 is currently being targeted. On the way there the October 2010 high can be found at $130.50.

Immediate upside pressure should be maintained while the price of cotton remains above the mid-January high and yesterday’s Bullish Engulfing pattern low at $122.81 to $122.48.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold recovers as oil keeps rising

Gold has recovered from a bout of volatility last week, while oil is still making gains.

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 07 February 2022 

Gold

Despite some volatility on Thursday and Friday the price was able to hold above $1800, leaving the broadly bullish view intact. Further gains continue to target $1830 and then $1850, the recent highs during the November-January bounce.

Sellers have been unable to hold the price below $1800, so a reversal below here is needed to negate the current bullish view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Having clambered above $90 last week, the price continues to rise the apparently unstoppable bullish trend.

After some initial caution around $88 the price was able to make headway, which continues to put the 2014 highs above $100 into view on a medium-term basis.

The previous battleground around $87/88 would be potential first support, and then below this $84 comes into view once again.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent stalls ahead of Iran nuclear talks, aluminium nears all-time highs

Brent crude oil consolidates near 7-year highs while aluminium is on track to make a new all-time high.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 February 2022 

Brent crude oil rally stalls ahead of Iran nuclear talks

Yesterday Brent crude oil made a new seven-year high at $93.55, as geopolitical tensions, falling stockpiles and supply disruptions pushed prices higher.

Today the price of oil is consolidating as investors turn their attention to the Iran nuclear talks that are set to resume. A nuclear deal could lead to the resumption of official crude exports from the Persian Gulf producer.

Following yesterday’s ‘Doji’ on the daily candlestick chart, which denotes indecision, a slip back towards the January high at $90.32 may thus be on the cards. As long as the next lower three-month uptrend line at $89.56 holds, however, the bulls remain firmly in control.

Once yesterday’s high at $93.55 has been overcome, the April 2013 low at $96.81 would be next in line, together with the psychological $100 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium gunning for all-time high at 3229

The Daily Financial Bet (DFB) on aluminium is rapidly heading up towards last year’s October all-time high at 3229.

At that time Bauxite, the raw substance which makes the metal, saw its price surge following a military coup and ensuing political upheaval in the West Africa nation, Guinea.

Technically speaking the rise above the late January 3133 high has put the all-time high at 3229 back on the map. It should remain in focus while aluminium stays above its current February low at 2964 on a daily chart closing basis since it is the last swing low. While above it, a series of higher highs and higher lows is seen which is the definition of an uptrend.

Immediate support comes in between the mid- to late January highs at 3133 to 3117 and also at the 3092 to 3082 price gap, seen between last and this week.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil muted while lumber makes headway

Brent crude oil consolidates around the $90 mark while lumber aims for its January high.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 February 2022

Brent crude oil weighs on uptrend line

Brent crude oil continues to come off Monday’s seven-year high at $93.55 and puts pressure on the three-month uptrend line which comes in around the $90 mark. Below it lies a band of support at $88.92 to $87.59. As long as this area underpins, the December-to-February uptrend will stay intact.

Minor resistance sits at Monday’s ‘Doji’ daily candlestick low at $91.70 and further resistance at this week’s $93.55 high. Above it the April 2013 low at $96.81 and the psychological $100 mark remain medium-term focal points.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber resumes its ascent towards January peak

The price of lumber is heading back up again, having last week formed a ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern on the daily candlestick chart and bounced right off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $874.

The December high at $1,170 is about to be exceeded with the January peak at $1,341 being in focus.

On the way up minor resistance may be encountered at the 7 January high at $1,239. Good support comes in between the 55-day SMA and the late January highs at $1,039 to $1,016.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

WTI in consolidation mode, gold taking a breather

WTI is likely to end its run of seven consecutive weekly rises while the rally in gold is losing upside momentum.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 11 February 2022 

WTI forms interim top and weighs on two-month uptrend line

Having risen for seven weeks in a row, it wouldn’t be surprising if the oil price were to dip this week and close lower.

Three technical factors point to further consolidation:

- last week’s high at $91.95 has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI);

- this high was made near the November 2013 and January 2014 lows at $91.24 to $91.77 which offer resistance;

- Monday’s Doji formation on the daily candlestick chart, denoting indecision, was followed by a sell-off to the two-month uptrend line and yesterday’s attempt at a rally failed at $90.61, prompting a retest of the uptrend line at $88.70.

This means that from a technical perspective a tumble through this week’s low at $87.53 would eye the October high at $85.06. On the way down the 20 January high can be spotted at $87.03 and the early February low at $85.82.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold runs out of steam below four-month resistance line at $1848

Gold's rally off its late January low at $1781 seems to have paused at yesterday’s high at $1842, just shy of the four-month resistance line at $1848.

While this resistance area caps, support at $1815 to $1814 may be revisited. It consists of the October, late November and mid-December highs.

Slightly further down meander the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) at $1807 to $1806. Key support remains to be seen at the late December to January lows at $1785 to $1780.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Conflict fears drive gold and oil higher

Both oil and gold have made gains of late as fears of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine rise.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 14 February 2022 

Gold

The price surged on Friday, as war fears escalated, driving above the late January high and pushing on to hit $1865. A continuation of this move brings the $1875 high into view, last seen in early November.

While the price was able to push on above trendline resistance from the May 2021 peak, it has edged back again in early trading this morning.

A drop back below $1849 reverses some of the bullish view, and puts the price back inside the broader wedge formation of the past few months.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil and natural gas prices all rallied on Friday due to reports of war becoming more likely in Ukraine.

The price continues to head towards the 2014 highs above $100, with $107.68 the first level to watch for previous resistance.

Recent price action has found support at $88 and then $85.40, so these are potential areas of support in the event of a near-term downturn.

Source: ProRealTime

 

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil backtrack on easing fears of war in Ukraine

Gold land oil lose upside momentum on de-escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 February 2022 

Gold comes off 8-month high amid easing tensions in Eastern Europe

Gold’s swift rally off its late January low at $1781 faltered slightly above its November peak at $1877 following reports that some Russian military units were returning to their bases, easing tensions.

Having briefly made an eight-month high at $1879, the precious metal is beginning to give back some of its recent strong gains and revisits the January high at $1853. Further down potential support sits at the $1831 early January high.

Only a rise above the $1877 to $1879 resistance zone would engage the May 2021 high at $1916.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent pauses below 7-year high as fears of Ukraine invasion diminish

Brent crude oil is giving back some of yesterday’s gains to new seven-year highs at $95.61 on the back of decreasing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, decreasing the risk that energy flows from Russia would be disrupted amid a conflict between the countries.

Yesterday’s high was made close to the April 2013 low at $96.81, a rise above which on renewed tensions would engage the psychological $100 mark. Minor support can be seen around the $92.00 mark and along the three-month uptrend line at $91.04.

Provided that the 8 February low at $89.47 underpins, overall upside pressure remains in play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil give back recent gains on de-escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict

Both the price of gold and WTI have formed bearish reversal patterns on the daily candlestick charts following decreased tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 February 2022 

Gold comes off 8-month high amid de-escalation in Eastern Europe

Yesterday gold formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart, having briefly traded at eight-month highs at $1879, on the back of partial Russian troop withdrawals from the Ukrainian border.

The odds therefore favour a minor top being formed as long as the threat of an invasion continues to subside. A potential downside target is the one-month support line at $1838, a slip through which would probably engage the early January high at $1831.

Only a rise above the $1877 to $1879 November and current February highs would push the May 2021 high at $1916 back into view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI looks top heavy short-term on diminishing threat of war in Ukraine

Having risen for eight consecutive weeks, it wouldn’t be surprising if the oil price were to dip this week and close lower.

Three technical factors point to further short-term consolidation:

- WTI is being capped by a resistance line drawn from the March- through the July and October 2021 highs at $93.36;

- Monday’s high at $94.04 has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), often a good early warning sign of diminishing trend strength;

- This week’s Evening Star formation on the daily candlestick chart, denoting a potential top, was followed by a sell-off to the two-month uptrend line which so far holds at $89.88 but looks fragile.

This means that from a technical perspective a tumble through yesterday’s low at $89.08 would probably provoke a slip to last week’s low at $87.53, a fall through which would target the 20 January high at $87.03, the early February low at $85.82 and also the October high at $85.06.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and aluminium rise as Russia-Ukraine tensions heighten

Gold revisits its eight-month peak as aluminium nears its all-time high on ongoing fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 February 2022 

Gold probes eight-month high amid ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe

Tuesday’s Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily gold candlestick chart has been invalidated by this morning’s rise above yesterday’s bullish Harami candle on the back of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The November and current February eight-month highs at $1877 to $1879 are being revisited, a rise above which would probably propel the price of the precious metal to the minor psychological $1900 mark and then on to the May 2021 high at $1916.

The bullish trend remains entrenched while no slip below this week’s low at $1845 is seen.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium is heading toward its all-time high at $3380

The Daily Financial Bet (DFB) on aluminium is rising towards its current February high at $3333, made close to its all-time high at $3380, as geopolitical risks and concerns over future supplies continue to drive the metal higher.

The all-time high should remain in focus while aluminium stays above the 11 February low at $3109 on a daily chart closing basis since it is where the last swing low can be found.

Above it the one-month support line comes in at $3191 and good support between the 20 and 28 January highs at $3133 to $3117.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold hits $1900 mark and live cattle nears multi-year highs amid geopolitical concerns

Gold topped the psychological $1900 level with live cattle trading near 7-year highs in the wake of heightened tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 February 2022 

Gold hits $1900 mark amid investor concern over geopolitical tensions

Yesterday gold extended its upward momentum to $1902, a level not seen since June of 2021, as investors worried about heightened geopolitical tensions involving the West, Russia, and Ukraine.

Today the precious metal is retreating, as investors reassess geopolitical risks following the announcement of a meeting between Russia and the US next week, raising hopes for a diplomatic solution to the ongoing standoff.

Good support is found between the November and previous February eight-month highs at $1879 to $1877. The medium-term bullish trend remains valid while no slip below this week’s low at $1845 is seen.

In case of a resumption of gold’s rally, a rise above yesterday’s high at $1902 would engage the June 2021 peak at $1916.

Source: ProRealTime

Live cattle trades close to levels last seen in August 2015 on tight supplies

Rising input costs stemming from high fuel prices, labour shortages, tight grain supplies and a tenfold increase in shipping container costs, has limited global trade in live cattle and keeps pushing prices higher.

Live cattle is getting ever closer to its $147.25 recent February high. It was made right within the August 2015 to January 2015 lows at $146.80 to $148.38 which represent good initial resistance. Once overcome, however, a continued advance towards the $164.25 April 2015 peak may be on the cards.

Bullish pressure is to be maintained while the futures contract stays above the 8 and 14 February lows at $144.46 to $144.02.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil scale fresh highs on rising Russian tensions with Ukraine

Gold has practically touched the June 2021 peak at $1916 with WTI on its way to the $98.24 to $100.42 zone on the back of heightened tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 February 2022 

Gold rallies close to June 2021 peak on rising geopolitical tensions

Gold has so far accelerated to $1914, practically to the September 2011 and June 2021 highs at $1916 to $1921, as Russian president Putin recognised the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and placed troops in the area.

US president Biden responded by ordering sanctions on the two separatist regions, with the European Union pledging to take additional steps.

In case of gold’s rally taking it above the $1916 to $1921 resistance zone, the November 2020 and January 2021 highs at $1959 to $1965 would be targeted next.

Further up sits the psychological $2000 mark. Strong support remains to be seen between the November and previous February eight-month highs at $1879 to $1877.

Source: ProRealTime

Oil scales fresh 7-year highs on increasing tensions in eastern Europe

WTI is trading at levels last seen in September 2014 and is on track to reach the January 2013 high at $98.24 on the back of rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine having been officially recognised by Russian president Putin.

Next up are the psychological $100 mark and the September 2012 high at $100.42. Slips should find support around the early February high at $91.95.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Aluminium reaches new all-time high while gold stalls below resistance

Aluminium is trading at new all-time highs but looks over-extended short-term and may now consolidate, together with the gold price, while closely watching eastern European developments.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 February 2022 

Gold consolidates below $1914 to $1921 resistance, awaiting Russia-Ukraine developments

This week the gold price has risen to $1914 on increasing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, practically reaching the September 2011 and June 2021 highs at $1916 to $1921 which so far act as solid resistance.

While this resistance area caps, a minor slide back towards the November and previous February eight-month highs at $1879 to $1877 may ensue.

In case of the price of gold breaking through the $1914 to $1921 resistance area, the November 2020 and January 2021 highs at $1959 to $1965 would be in the spotlight. Further up sits the psychological $2000 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium reaches new all-time high at $3313 but looks toppish short-term

Due to increasing concerns over inventories and supply shortages, the price of aluminium has been pushed to a new all-time high at $3313.

The risk of sanctions being imposed on Russia, one of the world’s largest metal producers, led to the latest surge in the price of aluminium which has risen by over 10% since the beginning of the month.

The IG Daily Financial Bet (DFB) on aluminium topped $3379 before forming a Gravestone Doji on the daily candlesticks chart. This points to short-term easing and a potential minor top being made.

Once the one-month uptrend line at 3275 has been slipped through, the three-month support line at 3141 could be back in the picture, together with the January high and 11 February low at 3133 to 3109.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Commodity prices surge as conflict erupts in Ukraine

News of a Russian assault on Ukraine prompted both gold and oil prices to rally.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 February 2022 

Gold

News of the Russian attack in Ukraine has driven prices sharply higher, pushing gold to its highest level since January 2021.

The November 2020 peak at $1958 now comes into view. In the event of a pullback $1907 and then $1875 may provide support.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil prices have risen steadily as the crisis in Ukraine has deepened, and have moved rapidly higher overnight, to their highest level in over seven years.

Further gains should result, as the price pulls away from trendline support, supported by high stochastic and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) readings. The 2014 highs above $100 and around $107.68 now come into view.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Oil and gold surge on Russian invasion of Ukraine

Brent crude oil tops the $100 mark and gold nears $2000 as Russia mounts a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 February 2022 

Brent crude oil has risen by around 8% on the day Russia invaded Ukraine with it trading above the psychological $100/barrel mark for the first time since September 2014.

The oil price has now risen by around +45% in the past three months on the back of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) limiting global oil supply, despite increasing demand as economies around the world open up again post-pandemic. The September 2012 to June 2014 highs at $1.1569 to $1.1915 represent possible upside targets for the weeks ahead.

Source: ProRealTime

 

Given the strength of the last three months’ advance in the oil price, there is also scope for the April 2011 and March 2012 highs at $127.30 to $128.25 to be reached in light of further Russian attacks on Ukraine taking place.

In the meantime, investors are also keeping a close eye on the Iran nuclear talks amidst signs of a possible agreement being reached which could add more than one million barrels a day of supply and help ease a tight global market.

Source: ProRealTime

Minor slips to below the $100 mark will probably encounter support between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2020 descent at $98.10 and the April 2013 trough at $96.81.

Only a currently unexpected reversal and fall through Wednesday’s last reaction low at $93.20 would put a dampener on the steep uptrend.

Gold has risen to levels not seen since September 2020, as flight-to-quality flows into the precious metal jumped after president Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin also warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian incursion would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”Gold extended its gains from late January, having risen by around 10% since then, all the way to today’s $1974/troy ounce high. It coincides with the September 2020 high which caps short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

 

A rise above it would not only engage the late August 2020 high at $1992 but also the psychological $2000 mark around which the rise in the price of the precious metal is likely to pause, at least short-term. If not, the August 2020 all-time high at $2075 might be back in the spotlight.

Source: ProRealTime

 

Aside from the war in Ukraine, investors also continue to keep an eye on accelerating inflation and ensuing rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Fed governor, Michelle Bowman, said she would assess incoming data to decide whether a half percentage point increase at the March meeting is called for. While the price of gold remains above its June high at $1916 and, more importantly, its one-month steep accelerated uptrend line at $1900, the bulls will remain firmly in charge.

[MongiIG]

Oil and gold come off spike highs as traders mull Russia sanctions

Brent crude oil and gold have given back some of yesterday’s sharp gains as traders await further developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 February 2022 

Gold comes off $1974 spike high, awaiting further Russia-Ukraine developments

On the back of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, gold rallied to levels last seen in September 2020 at $1974 before falling all the way back to and bouncing off its $1879 to $1877 key support area, containing the November and previous February eight-month highs.

Today range trading between these two extremes is on the cards. A currently unexpected rally above $1974 would engage the psychological $2000 mark and only an equally unlikely drop today below $1877 would have bearish implications with the January high at $1853 being eyed in such a scenario.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil pauses its ascent below the $100 mark as traders mull Russia sanctions

Brent crude oil has given back some of yesterday’s strong gains of up to +8% intraday to new seven-year highs at $102.57 on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, increasing the risk that energy flows from Russia could be disrupted.

The oil price followed its spike high by slipping to the April 2013 low at $96.81, above which it is range trading today, taking stock of the impact new heavy sanctions on Russia may have.

Minor support can be found around the mid-February high at $95.61 and resistance around the psychological $100 mark. While yesterday’s low at $94.38 underpins, the current steep uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold drops back but WTI keeps on rising

Gold prices dropped back sharply at the end of last week and continue to struggle despite the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Oil prices are, however still rising with continued price increases possible due to prevailing demand factors.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 February 2022 

Gold

It has been an impressively volatile few days for gold.

After spiking towards $1980 and then slumping, the price dropped on Friday back towards Thursday’s lows. It has managed to open back above $1900 this morning, but aside from last Thursday, gains above $1910 have been hard to come by.

A close above this level opens the way to fresh gains towards $1940. Sellers will need to drive the price below $1880 to cement the view that gold has topped for now.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil seems to win either way at present. Either the conflict continues and prices rise on fears of disruption, or it ends and prices rise as the global economy resumes its recovery and demand recovers.

Friday’s dip to $90 found buyers, and with an overnight surge a move back towards $100 seems likely. Sellers must send the price back below $90 to suggest even some short-term weakness.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold little changed, oil continues ascent

Gold remains little changed but oil continues its ascent as fighting in Ukraine intensifies.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 01 March 2022 

Gold little changed as Russia-Ukraine crisis is beginning to be priced in

For the past couple of days, the price of gold has been trading in a $40 range above its steep one-month uptrend line at $1890, having come off last week’s $1974 spike high in the wake of Russia invading Ukraine.

A rise above Friday’s $1921 high, would push the $1974 high back to the fore whereas a slip through the one-month uptrend line would probably lead to the $1879 to $1877 key support area being revisited. It comprises the November and previous February eight-month highs.

Only a rally above $1974 would eye the psychological $2000 mark and only a drop below $1877 would have bearish implications with the January high at $1853 being targeted in such a scenario.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent flirts with $100 mark as traders mull Ukraine crisis

Brent crude oil is flirting with the psychological $100 mark as it continues its ascent towards its seven-year high at $102.57 amidst the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Last week the price of Brent followed its spike to $102.57 by slipping back to Friday’s $92.92 low, only to then resume its current strong uptrend which began in December.

Today minor support can be found between the 22 February high at $96.93 and the April 2013 low at $96.81.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil rally amid supply worries

Gold and WTI surge higher as war in Ukraine intensifies and US sanctions on Russia are stepped up.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 02 March 2022 

Gold rallies as war in Ukraine gathers pace

Yesterday’s rise above Friday’s $1921 high points to the resumption of gold's advance with last week’s $1974 high being back in the frame.

This comes as fighting in Ukraine intensifies and president Biden said that Vladimir Putin would “pay the price” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in his State of the Union address.

A rally above $1974 would push the psychological $2000 mark to the fore. Slips should find support between Friday’s $1921 high and the one-month uptrend line at $1896.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI goes ballistic on intensifying war in Ukraine

WTI has so far risen by +15% in the past two days as the war in Ukraine intensifies and sanctions on Russia are increased by the US administration.

WTI is about to hit its March 2012 high at $110.55 above which lies key resistance at $112.24 to $114.83, the April, May 2011 and August 2013 highs. These may cap the rapid advance in the price of oil, at least in the short-term.

Potential support is found a long way off at last Thursday’s high at $100.09 and around the psychological $100 mark. Since early December WTI has so far risen by over +65%.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Surge continues for gold and oil prices

The rally in commodity prices continues, with oil hitting a twelve-year high this morning.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 07 March 2022 

Gold

Prices leapt higher on Friday, and have pushed on towards $2000 in early trading today. The mid-August 2020 high at $2016 now comes into view, and beyond this the price would target the early August 2020 high at $2075.

This parabolic move shows no sign of reversing, and intraday weakness has been seized upon by buyers. Steep trendline support from January would likely come into play around $1933.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

A huge gap higher overnight took oil prices to their highest level since 2008. The peak of $146 from 2008 now looks to be a distinct possibility, as discussion of blocking Russian oil exports begins.

Some back-filling of the gap higher might bring last weeks highs near $115 into play. Overall this looks to be a market that is trading on news headlines, with technicals continuing to take a back seat.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold tops $2,000 mark while oil rally takes a breather

Gold continues to attract safe-haven inflows while oil pauses after its recent 30% rally.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 March 2022 

Gold continues to surge higher amid economic uncertainties

Gold has risen more than 5% since the beginning of March to levels last seen in August 2020 - $2,021 per troy ounce - as geopolitical tensions, surging commodity prices and economic uncertainties lead to strong demand for the safe haven metal.

The precious metal seems to be well on its way to its all-time high at $2,075, provided that it remains above the $1,974 to $1,973 September 2020 and February 2022 highs which should now act as support.

Further minor support comes in at the $1,950 1 March high.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI rally takes a breather

Since the beginning of the month WTI has risen by 30% as the war in Ukraine intensified and sanctions on Russia led to surging commodity prices amidst fears of supply shortages and a US proposal to no longer buy oil from Russia, which Germany felt reluctant about.

Today WTI is trading below yesterday’s 14-year high at $124.71 but is so far being supported by its 3 March high at $114.85. Below this level minor support can be spotted at the 2 March high at $110.96.

Were a rally to above $124.71 to unfold, the July 2008 all-time high at $146.65 and also the psychological $150.00 mark would be next in line.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil pause their steep ascents

Gold stalled close to its all-time high and Brent crude oil around the $130 mark as traders assess ongoing tensions between Russia and the West.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 March 2022 

Gold stalls below its $2,075 all-time high

Since the beginning of the month the price of gold has risen by over 7%, yesterday to $2,070 per troy ounce, just short of its $2,075 all-time August 2020 high as ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties lead to strong demand for the safe haven metal.

With the Russians and Ukrainians still negotiating and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, hinting that the status of Crimea and Donbas are up for negotiation and Nato membership seems unachievable for now, hopes of peace have led to slight risk on sentiment which today is driving the price of the precious metal back down towards the psychological $2,000 mark.

Below this, support can be spotted at the $1,975 to $1,973 September 2020 and February 2022 highs which is to hold, if revisited. Further minor support comes in at the $1,950 1 March high.

A rally above the key $2,070 to $2,075 resistance area, which incidentally is where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the August 2021 rally sits, would target the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at $2,260.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent struggles around the $130 mark as traders hope for a resolution to the Ukraine crisis

Brent crude oil has risen by around 30% since the beginning of the month in the wake of threats by the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Alexander Novak, to cut Nordstream 1 supplies and amid talks of an embargo on Russian oil and gas by the United States.

The contract has so far hit a 13 ¾ year high at $131.51 before consolidating. With the war in Ukraine raging on, the risk of a further price hike cannot be excluded.

In case of the $131.51 high being exceeded, the July 2008 all-time high at $147.23 would be targeted, together with the psychological $150 mark. Provided that the $131.51 high caps, though, a retracement back towards the March uptrend line on the hourly chart to around the $120 region may unfold as traders hope for a possible resolution to the war in Ukraine.

Good support on the hourly chart can be found at the $119.07 to $117.79 zone.

Source: ProRealTime

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Oil and gold continue to edge lower

After surging last week, both gold and oil are trimming recent gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 14 March 2022 

Gold

The price has broadly continued its retreat from the highs seen last week, but this unwinding of an overextension has left the broader uptrend of the year so far largely intact.

Sellers will look for additional declines below Friday’s low at $1959, potentially opening the way for a move back towards $1907.

On the upside, a recovery of $2000 and then $2016 would mark the beginning of another move higher that could see the price retake recent highs at $2070.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

In a similar fashion, oil prices have unwound some of the exuberance in price action seen earlier in the month, although they are still significantly higher than late February.

The next targets in a move lower are the areas around $96.80, and then on to $88.80, with the latter putting the price below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently $91.51.

In the near-term, buyers will want to see the price steady, accompanied by a recovery in daily stochastics, with a move back above $107.70 helping to suggest a near-term low is in play. This might then bring the March peak around $125 back into view in due course.

Source: ProRealTime

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Gold and oil prices give back more of their recent gains

Both the gold and oil prices continue to decline from last week’s multi-year highs as traders assess the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 March 2022 

Gold hits 50% retracement of February to March advance

Gold continues to rapidly come off last week’s $2,070 per troy ounce high as investors brace for a key Federal Reserve policy on Wednesday and mull the war in Ukraine which is now in its third week.

The precious metal has now broken through its two-month uptrend line at $1,947 and hit the 50% retracement of the February to March advance at $1,926. Downside targets are the $1,916 May 2021 high, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,890 and the 24 February low at $1,879 with resistance coming in at the $1,950 1 March high and also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1,960.

Further, more significant, resistance sits between the $1,973 to $1,975 September 2020 and February 2022 highs.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI slides to four-month uptrend line which may offer support

WTI has dropped over 20% from last week’s $126.74 multi-year high and now weighs on its four-month uptrend line at $95.40 as investors assess the impact the ongoing war in Ukraine may have on supply issues.

Together with the $94.04 mid-February high, the uptrend may offer short-term support. If slipped through, however, the 25 February low and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90.40 to $89.68 would be next in line.

Resistance can be spotted between the 24 February high and the 9 March low at $100.09 to $101.18.

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Gold continues to slide but oil bounces off uptrend line

While gold remains under pressure, Brent crude oil bounces off technical support as traders assess ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 March 2022 

Gold trades below 50% retracement of February to March advance

Gold continues to decline, having so far given back around 7% since last week’s $2,070 per troy ounce high.

This as investors look forward to an expected US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike of 25 basis points accompanied by a hawkish statement on Wednesday at 6pm GMT and hope for a positive outcome in Russia-Ukraine talks which are now in their fifth round as the war in Ukraine enters its third week.

The precious metal dropped below the 50% retracement of the February to March advance at $1,926 and is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,890 and the 24 February low at $1,879.

Minor resistance is found between the $1,950 1 March high and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1,960. Further, more significant, resistance sits between the $1,973 to $1,975 September 2020 and February 2022 highs.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent bounces off four-month uptrend line

Brent crude oil’s bearish reversal and swift slide by over 25% from its $131.51 14-year high seen a week ago amid ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has taken it to the four-month uptrend line at $96.02 from which it is currently bouncing back.

The area between the 24 February high at $102.58 and the 9 March low at $104.25 is to offer short-term resistance today. Further up resistance can be spotted at the 4 March $109.02 low.

Were yesterday’s low at $96.02 to be slipped through, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and 25 February low at $93.26 to $92.93 would be next in line.

Source: ProRealTime

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Gold and WTI losses tempered after recent declines

Gold and oil have both steadied after their recent sharp losses, leaving the medium-term uptrends intact.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 March 2022 

Gold

After pushing lower for a week, gold prices managed to stabilise yesterday, bouncing from $1907. For now this appears to be holding as support, now that much of the overextension of early March has been unwound.

If $1907 continues to hold then a more bullish view may develop in the near-term, potentially signalling a move back higher in the direction of $1959 and then $1975.

Continued losses back below $1907 bring the rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - currently $1873 - into view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

Having completed a round trip from $92 in late February, up to $125 in early March and then back down again, perhaps the price is now poised to move higher once again.

Like gold, much of the over-exuberance has been unwound, and the move has brought the price back towards the 50-day SMA at $92.49. Should this continue to hold, and further gains above $100 result in a bullish crossover for stochastics, then the price may resume its move higher, albeit in a more measured fashion.

For now the uptrend is firmly intact, with a higher low potentially being established. A move back below $90 negates this view and suggests a deeper retracement is at hand.

Source: ProRealTime

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Gold and oil give back recent gains

Gold and Brent crude oil pare some of their recent gains as investors continue to worry over possible supply disruptions due to the war in Ukraine and an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 March 2022 

Gold remains below its $1,959 to $1,974 resistance zone

Gold continues to range trade between Thursday’s high at $1,949 and yesterday’s low at $1,918 with the latter being eyed while the former caps as traders continue to assess the war in Ukraine which is about to enter its second month.

A slip through its recent low at $1,918 would most likely lead to last week’s low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-to-March advance at $1,895 to $1,890 being revisited. Slightly further down sits the 24 February low at $1,879.

Above Thursday’s high at $1,949 the significant $1,959 to $1,974 resistance area can be found. It encompasses the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such is likely to cap.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent’s bounce off four-month uptrend line running out of steam

Brent crude oil’s recovery from it four-month uptrend line at $96.61 led to a 20% rise in its price in under a week amid ongoing talks by the European Union (EU) to ban Russian oil imports and attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities by Yemen Houthis.

The oil price has risen to the $116.48 to $119.06 resistance zone which contains the 3 and 10 March as well as today’s high and acts as minor resistance. While this resistance area caps, a slide back towards the 4 March $109.02 low is to be seen with the next lower 9 March low at $104.25 representing another downside target.

Further down sits the 24 February high at $102.58 above the minor psychological $100 mark. Were the 3 March high at $119.06 to be exceeded, however, the early March high at $131.51 would be back in focus.

Source: ProRealTime

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Oil and wheat prices may soon come off again

WTI and Chicago wheat prices are consolidating as traders mull geopolitical tensions and their impact on supplies but may slide again if the technical picture warrants this.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 March 2022 

WTI’s bounce off four-month uptrend line running out of steam

WTI's 20% recovery rally from its $92.45 mid-March low is taking a breather as traders evaluate geopolitical tensions and supply issues.

Yesterday’s Dark Cloud Cover on the daily candlestick chart may lead to another down leg being formed in the days to come, provided that a drop and daily chart close below yesterday’s low at $107 occurs today and that no rise and daily chart close above yesterday’s high at $113.21 is made.

Potential downside targets can be spotted between the 24 February high and the 9 March low at $101.18 to $100.09, as well as along this year’s support line at $95 and the $94.04 mid-February high.

In case of a rise above $113.21 and the 4 March high at $114.85 ensuing, however, we would have to allow for the early March peak at $126.74 to come back into the frame.

Source: ProRealTime

Wheat prices consolidate but could head down again as traders mull Ukraine situation

Chicago wheat has come off minor resistance and may be slipping back down towards the $10.00 mark as investors assess the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global wheat supplies.

Yesterday’s rejection by the $11.52 to $11.55 resistance zone, consisting of the 8 March low and 15 March high, led to a Doji being formed on the daily candlestick chart, a fall below which will have negative implications for the price of wheat.

This is to say that a slip below yesterday’s low at $10,95 would push the 11 and 17 March lows at $10.35 to $10.26 as well as the psychological $10 mark to the fore, provided that no rise and daily chart close above yesterday’s high at $11.56 is seen.

This is what typically happens when a spike high such as the one seen on the daily wheat chart occurs, meaning that the first sharp sell-off is followed by a sideways consolidation which usually precedes another leg lower being made.

Such a move could take the price of Chicago wheat back down towards pre-invasion levels of around $7.80 where the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) can be seen.

Source: ProRealTime

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Gold price strengthens while oil looks for further gains

Gold has rallied from support and may well be poised to move higher, while oil prices enjoyed a strong day yesterday.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 March 2022 

Gold

Over the past week or so, gold prices have stabilised, holding above $1915 and building a base.

Yesterday’s surge in oil prices revived worries about inflation, and gold has benefited as a result. Additional gains above $1958 will reinforce this bullish narrative, with a higher low looking to have been formed.

This then suggests a resumption of the broader recovery in recent months, with the March highs above $2000 coming into play as a medium-term goal.

To reverse this view, a close back below $1900 would be needed, putting the price below the low of the previous few sessions.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

It was another good day for oil yesterday, the price moving to its highest level in two weeks.

It has rallied back to resistance around the $114.83 mark, but a move above here puts the March highs around $125 back into view. Rising stochastics certainly support a near-term bullish view.

For a more bearish outlook to prevail, a reversal below $107.70 would be needed, and this could open the way to $100 and below.

Source: ProRealTime

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Gold and oil push into technical resistance zones

Gold and Brent crude oil enter technical resistance zones and may give back some of their recent gains as investors continue to worry about supply disruptions due to the war in Ukraine.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 March 2022 

Gold probes $1,959 to $1,974 resistance zone

Yesterday gold entered its significant $1,959 to $1,974 resistance area as the war in Ukraine hit its one-month milestone.

This resistance zone is made up of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such is likely to cap. While this remains the case, a drop towards the current March low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-to-March advance at $1,895 to $1,890 may unfold.

On the way down minor support can be spotted at Tuesday’s $1.911 low. Were a daily chart close above the $1,974 level to take place today, however, the psychological $2,000 mark would be back in the limelight.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent’s rally beginning to run out of steam

Brent crude oil’s rally off it four-month uptrend line at $96.61 provoked a near 25% rise in under two weeks as the European Union (EU) considers beefing up sanctions on Russian crude.

The oil price has risen to the $116.48 to $120.48 minor resistance zone which contains the 3, 10 and 24 March highs. While this resistance area prevents further upside, a slide back towards the 4 March $109.02 low may ensue with the next lower 9 March low at $104.25 representing another possible downside target.

Further down sits the 24 February high at $102.58 above the minor psychological $100 mark. Were the $120.48 high to be exceeded, however, the early March high at $131.51 would be back in the frame.

Source: ProRealTime

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Gold and oil both retreat from last week’s highs

The week has started with losses for gold and oil, with the latter hard hit as worries about a slowdown in China take their toll.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 March 2022 

Gold

The price has taken a sharp turn lower today falling back from the highs seen towards the end of last week above $1960.

This puts the $1907 and then $1900 levels back into view, should the price unwind the limited gains of the past week.

Buyers need to rediscover some upward momentum to get the price moving back above $1960, which would then help to revive the cautiously bullish view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI

A fresh lockdown in Shanghai has put pressure on oil prices, with WTI falling back below $110.

Should the price move below $107.70 then additional bearish momentum may develop, potentially bringing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) back into view.

Buyers will want to see a recovery back above $111, which might then prompt a retest of the highs from last week at $115.

Source: ProRealTime