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Gold and oil drop on hopes of eastern European peace talks and demand concerns

Gold and Brent crude oil have given back a chunk of their recent gains as investors hope for a de-escalation in Ukraine amid Chinese lockdowns which are depressing demand.

1648539833788.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 29 March 2022

Gold rejected by the $1,959 to $1,974 resistance zone

Yesterday gold failed in its significant $1,959 to $1,974 resistance area on hopes of a positive outcome in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which are to resume in Istanbul today.

The $1,959 to $1,974 resistance zone is made up of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such proved difficult to overcome.

A drop towards the 22 March low at $1,911 is underway, a slip through which would put the early March low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-to-March advance at $1,895 to $1,890 on the map.

Resistance can be found at the 17 March high at $1,949 and also at last week’s high at $1,966. Only if a daily chart close above the $1,974 level were to be made, would the psychological $2,000 mark be back in the spotlight.

29032022_XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent drops on Chinese fuel demand concerns

Brent crude oil topped out at last week’s $120.48 high and fell sharply yesterday as increased lockdowns in China to combat a surge in Covid cases leads to demand concerns.

Furthermore, renewed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, with the former offering a ‘neutral status', raise hopes of an easing of sanctions against Russian energy.

The oil price dropped by over 6% yesterday and nears the 9 March low at $104.25, a fall through which should take it to the psychological $100 mark and the December-to-March uptrend line at $99.60.

Minor resistance lies between the 23 and 25 March lows at $111.61 to $112.35 with further resistance sitting at yesterday’s high at $114.99.

Only if last week’s high at $120.48 were to be exceeded, would the early March high at $131.51 be back in the picture.

29032022_LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil ease losses of previous session

Gold and WTI dropped to key technical support on hopes of a de-escalation in Ukraine but swiftly recovered when renewed scepticism crept in.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 30 March 2022

Gold revisited but bounced off its mid-March low

Yesterday the price of gold briefly dipped to our target zone on hopes of a peace agreement being reached between Russia and Ukraine.

It consists of the early March low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-to-March advance at $1,895 to $1,890 from where it swiftly recovered and formed a potentially bullish Hammer on the daily candlestick chart. This bullish reversal pattern will only be confirmed on a rise above yesterday’s high at 1,929, though.

If confirmed, the 1 and 17 March highs at $1,949 to $1,950 would be eyed ahead of the key $1,959 to $1,974 resistance area. It is made up of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such is expected to again cap, if revisited at all.

Good support below the 22 March low at 1,911 remains to be seen at $1,895 to $1,888, which includes the 55-day simple moving average (SMA).

30032022_XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI swiftly recovers from yesterday’s sharp drop

WTI's recent 15% decline from last week’s high has taken it close to the December-to-March uptrend line at $97.25 on hopes of a peace deal being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

The oil price did swiftly bounce back, however, as renewed scepticism crept in with the 23 and 25 March lows at $108.20 to $108.23 possibly being reached today.

As long as last week’s high at $116.31 isn’t bettered, however, renewed downside pressure should make itself felt, targeting the 55-day SMA at $96.13 and the mid-March trough at $92.45.

30032022_CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Oil drops sharply on news of US release of oil reserves, wheat stabilises

WTI resumes its descent as President Biden mentions possibility of another big release of oil reserves, while the price of Chicago wheat levels out.

bg%20oil%20brent%20wti%20crude%202394823Source: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 31 March 2022 

WTI drops as Biden mulls another big release of strategic oil reserves

WTI has resumed its descent towards the December-to-March uptrend line at $97.75 as US president, Joe Biden hints at another major release of strategic oil reserves to help combat rampant inflation ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting.

The psychological $100 mark is back in the frame with the price of oil having so far dropped by over 5% since yesterday.

Below the four-month uptrend line at $97.75 meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $96.52 and the mid-March trough at $92.45.

Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal and rise above yesterday’s $107.98 high would negate the negative outlook.

31032022_CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Chicago wheat price stabilises as traders mull Ukraine situation

Chicago wheat is trying to break through its one-month downtrend line at $10.30 as investors assess the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global wheat supplies.

The soft commodity is currently seeing a bounce from this week’s $9.70 low but remains technically under pressure as long as the recent highs at $11.54 to $11.56 cap the upside.

Below the $9.70 low the 55-day moving average can be spotted at $9.22, below which lies Chicago wheat’s pre-invasion levels of around $7.90 where the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) can be seen.

31032022_W-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold moves higher as oil continues to fall

The divergence between gold and oil prices continues, as the former moves cautiously higher but the latter drops back.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 01 April 2022 

Gold

The price of gold has edged higher over the past two days, after it managed to hold above the $1900 level for the second time in a month.

This defence of support hands the initiative to the buyers and puts last week’s high at $1959 into view. Beyond this, $1990 and then $2016 are potential area of resistance.

Gold_010422.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil prices remain under pressure, with WTI falling back below $100.

It is now testing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and below this the March low of $92.55 comes into view. Should this be lost $89.40 and then $86.40 are potential support.

WTI_010422.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold prices stabilise while oil looks for a bounce

Gold prices shrugged off some initial weakness, while oil is hoping trendline support can help it to stage a recovery.

BG_gold_.21981919.pngSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 April 2022 

Gold

The price fell back on Friday, as a rising dollar and strengthening yields following the payroll report saw investors move away from gold.

Falling oil prices have also dimmed inflation fears somewhat, hurting gold.

It would require a bounce through $1950 and then $1958 to suggest a new move higher is underway.

Gold_040422.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

Losses have stabilised here for now, with a small gain in early trading, but the buyers have much work to do if they are to regain control.

The price is hovering above trendline support from the beginning of February, and a bounce here would generate a higher low that could re-energise the uptrend.

Further losses bring the mid-March low around $93.50 into view, and then on towards $88.30.

WTI_040422.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price lacks direction while WTI rallies on supply worries

Gold continues to range trade in low volatility while WTI rallies over additional sanctions on Russia potentially leading to supply disruptions.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 April 2022 

Gold continues to trade in a tight range and lacks direction

The price of gold continues to lack direction and stays below Thursday’s 1,950 high as further sanctions on Russia loom.

Key support can be found between the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the mid- to late March lows at $1,896 to $1,891 while significant resistance remains to be seen in the $1,959 to $1,974 region.

It is made up of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such is expected to cap again, if revisited.

05042022_XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI gains on worries of supply disruptions

Yesterday WTI shot back up again and formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart as the potential of more European and US sanctions on Russia added to concerns about supply disruptions, possibly negating a vast release by the US from the nation’s strategic oil reserves.

WTI thus rallied from its current April low at $97.18 to today’s intraday high to date at $104.80. If exceeded, the 30 March high at $107.98 will be back in the picture, together with the one-month resistance line at $109.40.

Good support remains to be seen between the late March and early April lows as well as the 55-day SMA at $97.96 to $97.18. Below this area sits the mid-March trough at $92.45.

05042022_CL-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Forecasts on the price of gold, Brent crude oil and wheat

Technical outlook on gold, Brent crude oil and Chicago wheat as traders mull impact of further sanctions on Russia.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 06 April 2022 

Gold stays range bound

The price of gold continues to trade sideways while staying below Thursday’s $1,950 high as further European and US sanctions on Russia loom.

Good support can be found between the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the mid- to late March lows at $1,896 to $1,891 while significant resistance remains to be seen in the $1,959 to $1,974 region.

It consists of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such is expected to again cap, if revisited.

gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil stabilises above its four-month uptrend line

Brent crude oil’s recovery from last week’s low at $102.21, made slightly above the four-month uptrend line at $101.90, took it to yesterday’s high at $109.55 before giving back some of its daily gains. This as the threat of additional sanctions on Russia countered expectations of weaker demand following a build in US crude stockpiles and an extended lockdown in Shanghai.

A rise above yesterday’s high at $109.55 is needed, for the next higher 30 March high at $112.20 to be next in line. Further up remains to be seen the $116.48 to $120.48 resistance zone which contains the 3, 10 and 24 March highs.

While this resistance area prevents further upside, a slide back towards the uptrend line looks to be the more likely scenario. Below it the 55-day SMA can be spotted at $100.54 as well as the mid-March low at $96.61.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

The price of Chicago wheat stabilises as traders mull further sanctions on Russia

Chicago wheat is seen stalling along its one-month downtrend line at $10.59 as investors assess the impact of further sanctions on Russian wheat supplies.

Yesterday the soft commodity rallied to $10.72 on news of further sanctions being imposed on Russia but since then its price has declined with Monday’s gap at $10.23 to $10.15 left to be filled. Below it sit the March and current April lows at $9.83 to $9.70 which represent support.

Were this level to give way, the 55-day SMA at $9.41 would be eyed. Much further down lie Chicago wheat’s pre-invasion levels of around $7.98 where the 200-day SMA can be seen.

Only a rally above this week’s high at $10.72 would engage the 8 March low and mid-March highs at $11.54 to $11.56.

Chicago wheat chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price stuck fast above support while oil slips lower

Gold has found itself stuck in a narrow range, while the outlook for oil prices is beginning to come under pressure as they slip below the 50-day SMA.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 07 April 2022 

The latest set of Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes has done little to help gold, which has been under pressure and unable to push higher as the Fed outlines its plans to keep tightening policy.

If the Fed does achieve its aim, then inflation’s rise will be limited, and as a result gold’s appeal could be dented quite significantly. Much of the bull case for gold has rested on the assumption that prices will keep rising at a fast pace, and if expectations of the speed of the rise are trimmed then gold may well continue to struggle.

Meanwhile oil prices have been unable to steady themselves, as fears about a slowing pace of economic growth revive. This comes both from the Fed’s plan to tighten policy, and the rise in the oil price itself.

Before oil saw huge gains due to the war in Ukraine, it had already been steadily rising thanks to expectations of strong demand. Now that is changing, and the release of oil stockpiles from various nations will also boost available supply, putting pressure on prices.

Gold hovers above support

Gold prices continue to hover above the $1910 support zone, displaying a reluctance to move higher and also an unwillingness to drop back.

The latest set of Fed minutes has boosted the US dollar and yields, limiting gold’s upside for the time being. Buyers will need to see the price push on above $1950 for a more bullish view to emerge. This will then bring $1965 and higher into view.

Alternately, sellers will want to push the price below the support zone around $1910, in order to clear the way for a deeper retracement that may see $1875 tested.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI stumbles below 50-day MA

Oil prices have dropped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time this year, but are attempting to stabilise at $97 for the time being.

However, buyers have yet to see much price action that points to a sustained rebound. The first hurdle to clear would be $105, as a move above here would recoup the losses of the last two days. This would then bring $115 into view, and beyond this $125 could become a medium-term target.

Sellers will aim to drive the price below the mid-March low at $93, which might then allow for a dip towards $90 and the 100-day SMA (currently $97.61).

WTI_070422.pngSource: ProRealTime
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WTI price on track for second straight weekly loss, platinum nears key support, gold muted

Technical outlook on WTI as it heads for second consecutive weekly loss amid release of massive strategic oil reserves. Platinum meanwhile off 20% from its March high and nearing key support while gold remains sidelined.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 08 April 2022 

WTI heads for second straight weekly loss

WTI continues to decline and is on track to see its second consecutive weekly drop in the wake of International Energy Agency (IAE) members' massive strategic oil reserve taps and demand concerns in China due to Covid-19 lockdowns.

A release of 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves has been agreed which comes on top of the 180 million barrels the US released last week.

WTI’s slip through its five-month uptrend line, 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the psychological $100 mark has taken the price of oil close to the mid-March low at $92.45. Failure there would put the $90 region back on the cards.

Above the 55-day SMA and breached uptrend line at $98.06 to $99.20 resistance can be found at this week’s high at $104.80.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Platinum is slipping towards key long-term support in the $900 region

The price of platinum has already dropped by around 20% from its early March $1,183 Russian invasion of Ukraine peak and is seen heading down towards the 200-week SMA at $934.63.

Below it lies a key long-term support zone which goes back to May 2017 and comes in at $915 to $891.

While yesterday’s low at $945 holds, though, a minor bounce back towards the mid-March low at $983 may ensue.

While the precious metal remains below its 30 March high at $1,005 on a daily chart closing basis, the downtrend remains intact.

Platinum chartSource: ProRealTime

Gold continues to be sidelined

The volatility has seeped out of the price of gold with it continuing to trade in a tight range while remaining below Thursday’s $1,950 high as investors mull over additional sanctions on Russia.

Strong support remains to be seen between the 55-day SMA and the mid- to late March lows at $1,901 to $1,891 while significant resistance can be spotted in the $1,959 to $1,974 region. It consists of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs and as such is expected to again cap, if revisited.

The decreasing volatility is reflected by converging Bollinger Bands which need to be closely watched in the days to come as they can give an early indication of volatility increasing again with sharp moves in the price of gold occurring once more.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold, Brent price taking a breather while aluminium bounces off support

Technical outlook on gold, Brent crude oil and aluminium amid demand concerns in China due to tight Covid-19 restrictions.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 19 April 2022 

Gold forms Gravestone Doji in light volume trading

Last week fears of soaring inflation led to the price of gold breaking through its key $1,959 to $1,974 resistance area, which consists of the September and November 2020, January 2021, and February 2022 highs.

Yesterday traders tried to push the precious metal to the psychological $2,000 mark in low volume trading due to the extended Easter weekend, but gold stalled just short of that level before coming off again, forming what is called a Gravestone Doji on the daily candlestick chart.

This pattern can act as a topping formation if the next day’s, i.e. today’s, candle closes below yesterday’s low at $1,977. In this case a slip back to the previous resistance zone, now because of inverse polarity, support zone, at $1,974 to $1,959 should be on the cards.

Were yesterday’s high at $1,998 to be exceeded, however, the 10 March high at $2,009 would be eyed. Then there is no resistance to speak of until the March peak at $2,070.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil’s rally is taking a breather

Last week’s sharp advance in the price of Brent crude oil by nearly 15% is taking a breather as demand from China has temporarily waned due to its restrictive Covid-19 policy.

The rally from around the 11 April’s low at $97.42 took the price of Brent to $114.00 yesterday on the back of ongoing tight supply as minimal output increases from OPEC+ meets sanctions on Russian crude exports.

There were also fears that the supply issue could worsen, should the EU move in favour of banning energy imports from Russia, pushing the oil price higher still.

The 5 April high at $109.55 is likely to be revisited today, below which the breached March-to-April downtrend line, now support line, at $105.00 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $103.07 represent possible downside targets.

If yesterday’s high at $114.00 were to be bettered, though, the 30 March high at $112.20 would be targeted. Further up the 3, 10 and 24 March highs at $116.48 to $120.48 form another resistance zone.

Brent Crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Aluminium’s bounce off support encounters resistance

A week ago, aluminium held at its mid-March’s $3,223 per tonne low despite Covid-19 lockdowns in China provoking slowing demand for the industrial metal.

Prices of the metal used in transport, construction and packaging have fallen by over 12% from their $3,733 24 March high but then bounced off key support at $3,223 and today flirt with the two-month downtrend line at $3,322, having earlier been capped by the 55-day SMA at $3,363.

Further, minor resistance can be seen at the 29 March low at $3,404 and also at the next higher April high at $3,514. While the aluminium price remains below the latter, the recent downtrend is still in force with a fall through last week’s low at $3,222 leading to the January high and February 11 low at $3,109 to $3,057 being targeted.

Further down the February low can be found at $2,964.

Aluminium chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, WTI and aluminium prices drop on demand concerns

The outlook on gold, crude oil and aluminium is short-term bearish, caused by lower demand due to China’s restrictive Covid-19 policy.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 20 April 2022 

Gold price heading back down towards two-month uptrend line

The gold price has swiftly come off this week’s $1,998 high, made close to the psychological $2,000 mark in low volume trading on Monday due to the Easter weekend, as demand worries related to extended lockdowns in China and the ongoing global cost of living crisis outweighed concerns about soaring inflation.

The two-month uptrend line at $1,930 is thus in focus, together with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,920.

Minor resistance can now be spotted at the 14 April low at $1,961 and more important resistance at the late March high at $1,966.

Only if this week’s high at $1,998 were to unexpectedly be exceeded, would the 10 March high at $2,009 be back in focus. Then there is no resistance to speak of until the March peak at $2,070.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI forms minor top at $109.19

Monday’s Doji daily candlestick formation, which denotes indecision in the market, has been followed by a rapid sell-off in the price of crude oil due to demand concerns caused by China’s restrictive Covid-19 policy.

The breached previous one-month resistance line acted as a support line yesterday and today may offer support again with the 55-day SMA at $100.65 to $100.14. If not, we would have to allow for the December-to-April uptrend line at $94.75 to be back in play.

Minor resistance above the 5 April high at $104.80 comes in at Monday’s $105.45 low. Only a currently unexpected rise above this week’s $109.19 high would lead to the late March high at $116.31 being back in the picture.

Unless this scenario plays out, a series of lower highs and lows, the definition of a down trend, continues to be seen.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Aluminium weighs on key support

Aluminium once more weighs on its mid-March and last week’s $3,223 to $3,222 per tonne lows as Covid-19 lockdowns in China provoke slowing demand for the industrial metal.

Prices of the metal used in car manufacturing, construction and packaging have fallen by over 12% from their $3,733 24 March high and should be heading down towards the January high and February 11 low at $3,109 to $3,057 once the $3,222 low has been slipped through. Further down sits the February low at $2,964.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the price of aluminium stays below yesterday’s high and the 55-day SMA at $3,354 to $3,365.

Further, minor resistance can be spotted at the 29 March low at $3,404 and also at the next higher April high at $3,514. While the aluminium price remains below the latter, the medium-term downtrend remains intact.

Aluminium chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and natural gas head lower, but oil prices make gains

Gold and natural gas retain a more bearish outlook, while oil prices are aiming for a recovery after losses earlier in the week.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 21 April 2022 

Gold remains under pressure

The gold price managed to stave off further declines yesterday, after two days of retreating from the $2000 level.

This now brings the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) back into focus, and further losses today should put additional pressure on the price. Below the 50-day SMA, the support zone around $1900 comes into view, last tested in the second half of March.

An upside case requires a rally back above $1998, reversing the losses seen in the first part of the week.

For the time being this does not seem like a particularly high-probability event, although a weaker dollar could provide the break gold has been looking for.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI moves higher off 50-day SMA

Here a more bullish view has begun to emerge, after the price suffered a reverse during the first part of this week. After breaking out above trendline resistance at the end of last week, the price then pushed on to $108. However, it was unable to sustain these gains and fell back.

Early trading today has found the price bouncing off the rising 50-day SMA, a positive sign, especially following yesterday’s bounce off the lows that found support at the previous trendline resistance line. This now puts $108 back into contention, and from there the late March high at $114.83 comes into view.

A more bearish outlook would require a reversal below $100, putting the price below yesterday’s lows and potentially marking a false breakout above trendline resistance. This might bring the lows around $94 into view.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas retreats from recent highs

The price continued to soar into the beginning of the week, and only now has encountered some selling pressure.

Steep trendline support from early March could come into play soon in the event of additional declines today. A move below 6500 puts the price below trendline support and would suggest that a move back towards 5500 could be in the offing.

Before this, 6255 comes in as possible support, in the event of additional declines in the short-term.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold and aluminium prices slip as Brent holds gains

Gold and aluminium outlook remains bearish as Brent crude oil holds gains.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 May 2022 

Gold slides towards the 200-day simple moving average

Gold’s descent from its mid-April high at $1,998 is ongoing amid demand woes with the December-to-May uptrend line and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,838 to $1,835 being within reach.

In this vicinity the gold price is likely to stabilise, at least in the short-term. Should this not be the case, a drop towards the next lower late December-to-January lows at $1,790 to $1,781 may ensue. Further down sits the December trough at $1,754.

While the one-month downtrend line at $1,902 and, more importantly, the late April high at $1,919, cap, the recent downtrend remains firmly entrenched.

Further up meanders the 55-day SMA at $1,932.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil nears downtrend line on strong fuel demand

The price of Brent crude oil continues to be underpinned by robust global demand which outweighs fears of demand slowdown in top importer China.

Record fuel exports from the US are draining local supplies amid higher global demand for oil as supply remains diminished on shunning of Russian cargoes. This pushed the price of Brent crude oil to $109.89 last week, a level which will be back in the picture once the two-month downtrend line at $108.70 has been exceeded. En route lies the 21 April high at $109.45.

If the $109.45 to $109.89 resistance zone were to be bettered, the mid-April high at $114.00 would be back in sight. Above this level good resistance can be spotted at the 3, 10 and 24 March highs at $116.48 to $120.48.

Slips should find support along the 55-day SMA at $105.66 and at yesterday’s low at $102.91.

Further down sits last week’s low at $99.28.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Aluminium nears February low amid Chinese demand concerns

Aluminium’s over 25% decline from its $4,077 early March peak is approaching the February low, 200-day SMA and mid-January low at $2,964 to $2,938 per tonne where it may pause.

Should thisn not be the case, the December high at $2,851 will come into view, together with the early January low at $2,778. Minor resistance can be seen at the 26 and 28 April lows at $3,011 to $3,039. Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the price of aluminium remains below the 28 April high at $3,133.

Above it the two-month downtrend line can be found at $3,167 and key resistance between the October peak, mid-March and mid-April lows at $3,222 to $3,229.

The over 25% fall in the price of the metal used in car manufacturing, construction and packaging, from its $4,077 early March peak must be seen in the context of a price rise of around 175% from the May 2020 low to this year’s high.

Aluminium chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price remains under pressure while Brent crude oil and platinum rally

The outlook on gold is more subdued than on crude oil and platinum, both of which are rallying.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 May 2022 

Gold slides towards 200-day SMA

Gold’s slip from its mid-April high at $1,998 is ongoing amid demand woes with it getting ever closer to the December-to-May uptrend line and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,839 to $1,835.

In this vicinity the gold price is likely to stabilise, at least in the short-term. Should this not be the case, a fall towards the next lower late December-to-January lows at $1,790 to $1,781 may unfold. Further down lies the December low at $1,754.

While the one-month downtrend line at $1,894 and, more importantly, the late April high at $1,919, cap, the recent downtrend remains intact.

Further up meanders the 55-day SMA at $1,932.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent nears downtrend line as EU plans to ban Russian crude oil imports

The price of Brent crude oil continues to be underpinned by robust global demand and today’s European Union (EU) 27-member state meeting, in which a ban on Russian crude oil over the next six months will be discussed, could potentially also be approved.

This pushed the price of Brent to $109.89 last week, a level which is once more being targeted, together with the 21 April high at $109.45, now that the two-month downtrend line at $108.10 has been breached.

If the $109.45 to $109.89 resistance zone were to be bettered, the mid-April high at $114.00 would be back in view. Above this level strong resistance can be found at the 3, 10 and 24 March highs at $116.48 to $120.48.

Slips should find support along the 55-day SMA at $105.94 and at this week’s low at $102.91.

Further down sits last week’s low at $99.28.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Platinum is breaking through its downtrend line

Platinum’s 23% drop from its early March $1,183 per ounce peak as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, seems to have ended at last week’s $906 low from where a swift recovery rally has taken shape with the two-month downtrend line at $966 currently being breached.

The mid-March low at $984 is within reach, a rise above which would engage the 200- and 55-day SMAs, as well as the mid-April high at $1,006 to $1,025.

Minor support can be found between the March and early April lows and the 29 April high at $959 to $945. Below this area major support continues to be seen at the September and December 2021 lows as well as last week’s low at $906 to $891.

Platinum chartSource: ProRealTime
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Softer dollar gives gold, oil and natural gas prices room to rally

Commodities have been bolstered in the wake of the Fed decision, as the dollar retreats from a pre-meeting high.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 05 May 2022 

Gold rebound continues

Gold prices have rallied over the past three days, but having recouped most of Monday’s losses the price still needs to break above the last lower high from last week.

Already a move towards $1900 has been knocked back, with sellers no doubt looking to build on this intraday high to push the price back towards $1860 and then lower.

It will take a move above $1900 and then on above last Friday’s high at $1920 to break the downtrend that has prevailed since mid-April.

Below $1860 the price looks towards $1854 and then down to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1835.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI climbs back to April high

Talk of a European ban on Russian oil imports yesterday helped oil prices, and then a softer US dollar in the wake of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

Prices have now moved back to the mid-April high for WTI, at $107.68, so a breakout above here provides fresh bullish impetus, fortified by the high stochastic readings that denote strong forward momentum.

Further gains would target $110.70, and then on to $114.83, with a longer-term target up towards the February highs at $126.

For the time being sellers seem to have a hard time ahead of them, giving the weakening of the dollar, but a reversal below $102 would break trendline support from the April low and bring $95 and then $92 back into view.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas soars

Once again natural gas has outpaced oil in terms of its gains, rallying to its highest level since 2008.

The short-term pullback in the second half of April provided enough of a drop to tempt buyers back in, with the price finding support near 6500 and mounting a fresh rally in the subsequent weeks.

The price has now returned to trendline resistance from the 2012 low, which it tested back in 2018.

Given talk of European moves to ban Russian gas imports as well as those for oil, it appears this has room to move higher over the medium-term, potentially bringing 9050 into view.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil make gains

After a mixed session yesterday, gold is on the up, while oil is building on another day of gains.

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 06 May 2022 

Gold edges higher

After being knocked back yesterday the price has edged higher as it looks to build a base around $1860.

Should the dollar weaken from here then this gives the commodity space to move higher, potentially targeting yesterday’s highs art $1908 and then to $1919. This might then help to revive the short-term bullish thesis, eventually bringing the mid-April high at $2000 back into view.

A more bearish view requires a drop below $1850, breaching this week’s low.

Gold_060522.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent makes headway

Oil prices have made further headway, and for Brent this has brought it back to the $113 level from mid-April.

Above here further upside targets $120. For the moment, as with WTI yesterday, the price continues to be supported by the trendline from the first half of April.

A more bearish view requires a reversal below $105.

Brent_060522.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold turns lower while Brent drops back

After a small bounce on Friday the gold price has turned lower, while Brent has dropped back towards the 50-day SMA.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 09 May 2022 

Gold turns lower

After a small bounce on Friday the price has turned lower, with a strong dollar once again the author of the commodity’s woes.

This reversal brings the bearish view into play once again, and would see the $1850 zone brought into play as possible support.

Additional downside support could be found at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1836, and then $1830.

Gold_090522.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent drops back

Gains have faltered here as the price drops back towards the 50-day SMA and back below Friday’s high.

This near-term high might thus bring trendline support from mid-March into play. This would suggest a move back towards $102.

A rebound above $115 would be needed to revive the short-term bullish view.

Brent_090522.png
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Gold and oil pause after Monday’s losses

A rising dollar put pressure on commodities yesterday, but they have stabilised in early trading today.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 May 2022 

Gold

Gold prices yesterday returned to the $1863 support level tested earlier in the month, as they dropped sharply thanks to a strengthening US dollar.

But, while the price has recovered from Monday’s low, the overall decline appears intact. A stronger dollar continues to be gold’s nemesis, and shows no sign of reversing.

Further losses target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1836, and then on down to $1790 and the late January low.

A rebound above $1900 is still needed to suggest a short-term low is in place.

Gold_100522.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

The worsening global outlook has hit oil prices, propelling them lower yesterday, and again the stronger dollar is playing its part.

If this decline gathers pace, then short-term trendline support from mid-March will be tested, and then the price moves on to $95.35, the late April low, and followed up by $93, the low from March and April.

WTI_100522.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil bounce after two days of losses

After dropping so far this week, gold and oil have been able to bounce, reversing some of Monday’s and Tuesday’s losses.

bg%20oil%20brent%20wti%20crude%202394823Source: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 May 2022 

Gold

The price has returned to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), bouncing off this level following steep losses since mid-April.

Short-term upside targets $1890/$1900, and then $1920.

A close below the 200-day SMA would mark a bearish development and potentially open the way $1790 over the medium-term.

Gold_110522.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent

Recent losses have been stalled at trendline support, which might provide the chance for a rebound back towards $110 and then $114.

A drop below $100 would mark a bearish development and a possible retracement towards $95.75.

Brent_110522.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil look for further gains

After making headway on Wednesday, both gold and oil have edged lower, but the bounce yesterday sets up a short-term bullish view.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 May 2022 

Gold

After bouncing from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday, buyers will be looking for additional upside that will open the way to $1885 and then $1900.

This would then bolster the idea that a bigger move higher is underway.

A drop below $1835 negates this view, and could mark the beginning of a move towards $1790.

Gold_120522.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

After rebounding yesterday the price has stalled at the 50-day SMA, but should the price move on above $105 then the highs at $108 and higher may come into play.

Yesterday’s bounce hands the initiative to the buyers, and it would take a reversal back below $97.80 to suggest a further move to the downside is underway.

WTI_120522.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold still under pressure but oil moves higher

Gold prices are struggling but oil continues to make headway in morning trading.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 May 2022 

Gold

There seems no end in sight to the downtrend here, which remains driven by the strong US dollar.

Another lurch lower yesterday takes the price below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since the end of January.

Additional declines target $1790, and it will take a recovery above $1860 at least to suggest a near-term low is in place.

Gold_130522.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

The price has built on Wednesday’s bounce to push higher, with additional upside now coming into play as the price targets $110 and $115 in the event of a sustained move higher.

It will require a drop below $100 to suggest a fresh turn lower.

WTI_130522.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold edges lower, but oil and wheat prices rally

Gold is still unable to bounce despite the strong inflation outlook, but oil and wheat prices are rising as supply questions loom large.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 16 May 2022 

Gold continues to fall

There has been no let-up for gold here, as the dollar continues to strengthen.

The expectation of higher prices thanks to surging inflation would normally be considered beneficial for gold, which is viewed as a useful hedge against inflation, but this has been undermined by the rampant strength in the US dollar.

The past week has seen sharp losses for the commodity, building on the existing big falls seen since the middle of April. The price is now testing long-term support from early 2021, and a move below this would amplify the bearish view.

$1785 and then $1763 are the next major targets to the downside, and any sustainable bounce must take out $1830 and then move on back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to suggest even a short-term low has been created.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI stumbles but remains on track for more gains

It looks like concerns about supply tightness remain the big worry for oil prices, which have enjoyed gains in recent sessions.

This comes despite growing worries about the prospect of demand destruction due to high prices, lockdowns in China and slowing growth in Western economies such as the UK and US.

But the ongoing war in Ukraine and expectations of a further ban on Russian energy imports into Europe mean that supply tightness wins out as a major driver, and with one source of supply constricted others will have to take up the slack.

WTI rallied sharply in the second half of last week, making gains for three successive days. While the price has dropped back in early trading today, buyers have begun to emerge on the dip, providing an expectation that further gains will result. This puts $110 and then $114.80 into view.

Sellers will need a durable reversal below $100 to suggest a bearish view has come into play.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Wheat prices surge again

An already pressured wheat market has been given fresh worries by news that India will impose an export ban in order to conserve stockpiles.

Droughts and heat waves have hit yields in the country, which is a notable exporter, and this comes on top of the existing situation in Ukraine, where key exports are likely to be disrupted due to the ongoing war.

As a result, prices have gapped higher this morning, and seem poised to begin another attempt to reclaim the highs seen at the beginning of March. Then $13.40 a bushel was the peak, after a huge rally during February thanks to the outbreak of war.

The bullish view for prices remains in place, thanks to recent gains, which have seen the price rally off trendline support. A reversal below $11 would be needed to provide evidence that a downward move is now in play.

Wheat chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent prices rally as London wheat consolidates below all-time high

The outlook on gold is cautiously bullish while crude oil probes resistance at $114 and London wheat pauses below its £361 all-time high.

 

 

Gold stages a minor recovery rally

Gold’s slip from its mid-April high at $1,998 has taken it all the way to yesterday’s low at $1,787 before it formed a Hammer on the daily candlestick chart and recovered towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,837 which is about to be reached.

Next up the early May low can be spotted at $1,851 and the April-to-May downtrend line at $1,855 which may well cap again, however.

Yesterday’s low was made right within the late December-to-January lows at $1,790 to $1,781 which unsurprisingly offered support. Failure at $1,781 would engage the December low at $1,754.

While the late April high at $1,919 caps, the recent downtrend remains intact.

Further up meanders the 55-day SMA at $1,923.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil flirts with $114 April high as traders eye EU ban

The price of Brent crude oil continues to be underpinned by robust global demand as traders closely watch developments around a proposed EU ban on Russian oil which would tighten global supply further.

Yesterday the European Union (EU) failed to pressure Hungary to lift its veto of a proposed oil embargo on Russia but despite this the price of Brent crude oil has risen four days in a row.

It is being pushed towards its $114.00 April peak, a rise and daily chart close above which would lead to the late March high at $120.48 being next in line.

If the price of oil were to struggle around the $114 mark, however, and slip back, the breached March-to-April downtrend line at $110.05 and also the 55-day SMA at $108.38 would be back in the frame.

For now the bulls seem to be firmly in charge, though.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

London wheat prices are briefly coming off their all-time highs

Yesterday November 2022 London Wheat futures traded at their highest ever level of £361 per tonne after India announced on Saturday that it was closing its doors on wheat exports to cool local prices and ensure its supplies as a scorching heatwave curtailed output.

This comes on the back of adverse crop conditions in Europe and the US on top of the war in Ukraine and has pushed the price of London wheat up by over 50% since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The November 2022 contract has come off yesterday’s all-time high at £361 and closed a price gap from last week whilst remaining within its steep one-month uptrend channel.

The lower channel line at £337 is likely to act as interim support, together with the 9 May high at £333.

A rise above the £361 high seen yesterday may lead to the minor psychological 400 mark being targeted.

London wheat chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, WTI and London wheat prices consolidate

Gold, WTI and London wheat pause following US Fed Chair’s comments to keep raising rates until inflation comes down.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 May 2022 

Gold price declines on US Fed chair's comments

The last few days’ bounce in the price of gold faltered at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,837 as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Jerome Powell, emphasised his resolve to keep raising interest rates until inflation comes down.

While remaining below yesterday’s high at $1,836, the price of gold is likely to be heading back down towards Monday’s low at $1,787 with minor support being seen at the 13 May low at $1,799.

Only a rise above the 200-day SMA at $1,837 would engage the early May low at $1,851 and the April-to-May downtrend line at $1,855.

While the next higher late April high at $1,919 caps, the downtrend remains intact. Failure at $1,781 would push the December low at $1,754 to the fore.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI consolidates below this week’s high

Hopes of demand recovery in China have driven the price of WTI to yesterday’s $113.30 high.

This comes as the country relaxes some of its Covid-19 restrictions with the government announcing plans on Monday to end its six-week lockdown by the end of the month.

After four days of straight price rises by around 14%, WTI seems to be consolidating today in the short-term. A rise above this week’s $113.30 peak would lead to the late March high at $116.31 being eyed next.

Minor support can be spotted around the $109.19 mid-April high and also at the late April $107.26 high with further potential support being found along the 55-day SMA at $104.96.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

London wheat prices flirt with their all-time high

On Monday November 2022 London wheat futures traded at their highest ever level of £361 per tonne after India announced over the weekend that it was stopping its wheat exports to deflate local prices and ensure its supplies as a heatwave curtailed output.

This comes on the back of adverse crop conditions in Europe and the US on top of the war in Ukraine, all of which have pushed the price of London wheat up by over 50% since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.

The November 2022 contract continues to trade near its all-time high at £361 and within its steep one-month uptrend channel. The lower channel line at £337 is likely to act as interim support, together with the 9 May high at £333.

A rise and daily chart close above Monday’s £361 high may lead to the minor psychological 400 mark being targeted.

London wheat chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price holds steady, oil bounces, but platinum remains under pressure

Gold has been little-affected by the volatility in stocks, while oil prices have regained some ground. Platinum, meanwhile, remains under pressure.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 May 2022 

Gold calm despite renewed risk-off moves

The sudden drop in stocks yesterday does not appear to have provided much of a lift for gold, which has remained around yesterday’s levels without much of a bounce. Indeed, attempts at a bounce appear to have stalled entirely, with little appetite to even test the highs seen at the beginning of the week.

Of course, the stronger dollar plays a big part here, as high inflation readings drive investors to the greenback in the expectation that the tightening of monetary policy in the US will be an extended process.

As a result gold is out of favour, ignored in the rush to move into higher-yielding bonds at the very moment when it might have been expected to shine.

Admittedly the bearish case hasn’t got much traction here either, with little inclination evident at present to move lower towards $1800 and then $1780.

Meanwhile, a sustained bounce requires the price to move back above $1836, Tuesday’s high, and then move on above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) which is currently $1837.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude hovers above 50-day MA

Two days of losses have stalled here, as buyers attempt to move back into oil. The battle of the supply and demand outlooks continues, with the latter and its expected weakening of global demand holding sway over the previous two days.

Expectations of weaker growth across the glove, and even a recession, have meant that the bull case for oil has taken a knock, even with expectations of a European ban on Russian imports providing support to the price.

Price action this week has seen Brent unable to push on through the area of resistance around $114. The price needs to clear this to open the way to $120.50, the high from late March, and then above this the February peak at $131 comes into view.

Sellers will look to push the price back to $101.50 and then the $99.20 support zone, which has held since early April.

Brent chartSource: ProRealTime

Platinum prices slump once again

Expectations of strong supplies of platinum continue to drive the price lower, reinforced by the more negative economic outlook.

As with other risk assets, platinum has been under pressure as forecasts of economic growth are revised down, while the dollar’s strength provides another driving factor for losses.

The slump over the past week has seen the price falter at the 50-day SMA, and it is now on the cusp of returning to the support zone around $915. Additional declines below this level would bring the lows of late 2020 into view around $840.

Platinum chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent prices rally as lumber crashes

The outlook on gold and Brent crude oil remains bullish while the price of lumber is in free-fall.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 May 2022 

Gold trades back above 200-day SMA

Gold’s recovery from Monday’s low at $1,787 has taken it above its one-month resistance line and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,838 as high inflation data is seen across the world.

The early May low at $1,851 is now within reach, together with last Thursday’s high at $1,858. Further up lies the April low at $1,873 and the 55-day SMA at $1,918.

Support below the 200-day SMA comes in at Wednesday’s trough at $1,808. Below it sits this week’s low at $1,787 which was made right within the late December-to-January lows at $1,790 to $1,781 which unsurprisingly offered support.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil trades back above 55-day SMA

This week’s slide in the price of Brent crude oil ended at yesterday’s $104.45 low as China prepares to remove all Covid-19 restrictions on 1 June which is expected to lead to an increase in demand.

Traders also continue to monitor developments around a proposed European Union (EU) ban on Russian oil which would tighten global supply further.

Brent crude oil is once more pushing towards its $113.59 to $114.30 resistance area which consists of the April-to-May peaks, a rise and daily chart close above which would lead to the late March high at $120.48 being next in line.

Slips should find support along the 55-day SMA at $108.28 today.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber prices in free-fall

The price of lumber is in free-fall as inflation bites and US mortgage rate rises negatively impact demand for the commodity.

Recent data showed that 54% of US home builders say that higher mortgage rates are having a detrimental effect on their business.

This week’s sharp acceleration to the downside in the price of lumber has come after it hit a one-year high at $1,340 per thousand-feet boards in early March as the industry experienced staff shortages as well as disruptions due to transportation and weather.

As these pressures are starting to ease, and production is even increasing in some areas of the US, the price of lumber is trading back at levels last seen in November with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August 2021 to March 2022 advance at $647 being in focus.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil recover but lumber prices keeps falling as home sales demand dries up

While a weaker dollar has helped gold and oil, lumber prices continue on their downward trajectory.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 May 2022 

Gold’s recovery continues

It may be that last week’s trip below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has been enough to tempt out the dip buyers.

After a straight-line move from the April high near $2000, the gold price has managed to stabilise around $1800, briefly heading below $1800 before rebounding.

Recent days have seen a back-and-forth between risk-on and risk-off days, but a short-term weakening of the US dollar has given gold the chance to rally back above the 200-day SMA.

Additional upside now targets $1863 and $1875, with a bigger move heading back to $1905. It would require a reversal below $1830 to suggest that a fresh test of the lows of mid-May is underway.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI eyes bounce to fresh weekly high

Price gains here over the past few days have failed to carry the price back above last week’s high, but with risk appetite evidently recovering it is possible that a fresh test of $113 will result.

Sentiment around the global economy remains somewhat muted, not helped by lockdowns in China and the possibility of a recession in the US and elsewhere.

However, the continued war in Ukraine means that search for alternative supplies of oil to Russian output goes on. This may well offset any growing bearishness for the time being.

Further gains from current levels target $114.83, and then on towards $125 and the highs of early March. For the moment the bullish view appears to hold sway, and it would need a reversal back below $104 and the 50-day SMA to hand the sellers the initiative once again.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber slumps to new 2022 low

Lumber prices continue to be one of the big fallers of this market, dropping to a new low for the year as figures for US existing home sales revealed a slowdown in April.

The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, which has stepped up a gear with the introduction of 50 basis point (bps) rate hikes, and discussion of 75bps moves, this has driven a surge in US mortgage rates, hitting demand for both new and existing homes.

Having hit a new eight-month low, the price looks set for further declines. Even a rebound towards $800 would still leave the price below trendline resistance from the March highs, and would set up a lower high.

Below $663, the price heads towards $592, the low from around the time of the 2021 presidential election.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price rises for a fifth day as Brent and lumber slide

The outlook for gold remains bullish as Brent crude oil and lumber slide.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 May 2022 

Gold rises for a fifth consecutive day

Gold’s recovery from last week’s low at $1,787 has taken it to above its one-month resistance line and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,839 to this week’s high at $1,865 after four straight days of gains amid heightened geopolitical tensions and by taking cues from a stabilising US dollar.

The April low at $1,873 is now within reach, above which the early may high and 55-day SMA can be seen at $1,909 to $1,913. Support below the 200-day SMA and the 17 May high at $1,839 to $1,836 can be spotted along the breached two-month downtrend line at $1,821.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil eases on demand concerns

After three consecutive higher daily closes in the price of Brent crude oil a slide is currently being witnessed as fears of a possible global recession and challenging demand outlook bite.

Business and political leaders mentioned the risk of a worldwide recession at the annual Davos economic summit amid multiple threats to the world economy.

Today’s slide in the price of Brent crude oil is taking it back towards the 55-day SMA at $107.94 below which last week’s low can be spotted at $104.45.

A still possible rise above this week’s high at $112.14 would re-engage the $113.59 to $114.30 resistance zone which consists of the April-to-May peaks, a rise and daily chart close above which would lead to the late March high at $120.48 being targeted as well.

Brent Crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber prices continue their swift descent

The price of lumber is in free-fall as inflation bites and US mortgage rate rises negatively impact demand for the commodity.

Recent data showed that 54% of US home builders say that higher mortgage rates are having a detrimental effect on their business. The sharp drop in the price of lumber has taken it to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August 2021 to March 2022 advance at $647, an over 50% drop from its March one-year high at $1,340 per thousand-feet boards, back when the industry experienced staff shortages and disruptions due to transportation and weather.

As these pressures have eased, and production is even increasing in some areas of the US, the price of lumber is trading at six-month lows with the late November low at $622 and early November 2021 low at $592 representing possible downside targets for the days ahead.

Resistance above the minor psychological $700 mark can be spotted at last week’s gap seen between $715 and $729 as well as at the 12 May low at $740.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Brent price rises for a fifth day as gold stalls and aluminium drops

The outlook on Brent crude oil and gold remains bullish and that of aluminium bearish.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 May 2022 

Gold price rise stalls after five-day rally

Gold’s recovery from last week’s low at $1,787 has taken it to this week’s high at $1,869 in a straight five-day rally, taking its cue from a stabilising US dollar, with the precious metal stalling ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Minor support can be found at the $1,851 early May low and along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,839 as well as at the 17 May high at $1,836.

Slightly above this week’s high lies the April low at $1,873, above which the early May high and 55-day SMA can be found at $1,909 to $1,913.

Support below the 200-day SMA and the 17 May high at $1,839 to $1,836 can be spotted along the breached two-month downtrend line at $1,815.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil rises for fifth consecutive day on tight supply

Brent crude oil’s advance for the fifth consecutive day is taking place amid the prospect of even tighter global supply and expectations of stronger demand driving the oil price up.

This comes on the back of the new French foreign minister, Catherine Colonna, saying on Tuesday that she was optimistic that resistance by some member states opposed to the new European Union (EU) sanctions package that would phase out Russian oil imports to Europe would soon wane, tightening oil supplies even further.

The $113.59 to $114.30 resistance zone, which consists of the April-to-May peaks, thus remains in focus, a rise and daily chart close above which would lead to the late March high at $120.48 being targeted as well.

The current bullish bias will remain in play as long as yesterday’s low at $109.56 underpins. Below it the 55-day SMA and one-month support line can be seen at $107.68 to $106.90.

Brent crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Aluminium slipping back towards its early May low as energy crunch bites

Aluminium’s rejection by the 200-day SMA at $2,971 early this week provoked a sharp sell-off as Europe’s aluminium output slides due to the energy crisis with China picking up the slack.

Europe’s main aluminium smelters are continuing to curtail production in the face of soaring energy costs which has led to cheaper imports from China rising significantly.

The 19 May low at $2,824 is currently being toyed with, a fall through and daily chart close below which would push the early May low at $2,698 back to the fore.

Resistance can be spotted along the March-to-May resistance line at $2,954, the 200-day SMA at $2,971 and this week’s high at $2,994. Whilst the latter level caps, the past couple of months’ downtrend remains intact.

Aluminium chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold price weakens, while oil stalls and natural gas heads higher

Gold has dropped back for a second day, while WTI remains stalled below $111. Supply crunch fears continue to drive natural gas prices higher, however.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 May 2022 

Gold sinks for a second day

The breakout from trendline resistance last week has come under pressure, as the dollar begins a recovery that could spell the end of gold’s brief recovery from its mid-May low.

Having established a trend higher over the past few days, the price now looks at risk of breaking short-term support and beginning a reversal that will target the mid-May lows once more.

In the case of further losses, the price will target $1784, and then on down towards $1769, renewing the downtrend that began in mid-April.

A recovery above $1863 is needed to put the bullish view back in charge.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

WTI stalls below $111

The bounce of last week has begun to fizzle out, with little apparent desire to push higher in the short-term.

The past few days have seen the price stuck firmly below $111, although for the moment sellers are unable to drive it lower. Expectations of strong demand and the potential for further tightness in supply remain the main factors preventing a fresh turn to the downside, but for now these do not appear to have the strength to drive further price rises.

Clearly, any break higher requires the price to clear $111, which has been such a barrier to further progress in recent days. This would then bring the March highs at $115 into view.

For now the bullish view holds sway, if only cautiously, with the price needing a move below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $104.90, to suggest a deeper move towards April trendline support nearer $102 is in view.

WTI chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas eyes further gains

Despite being knocked back from its highs yesterday, gas continues to make headway.

Expectations of a supply crunch continue to drive price gains, as markets expect higher demand this summer as the US boosts its power use in hotter weather. In addition, institutional short positions are being closed out, driving prices higher as the contracts for June delivery near expiration.

Early trading has seen the price move on above the May peak, after yesterday’s attempt to push on above this level. Wednesday’s high at $9.425 now comes into view.

This drive higher seems set to continue, as the fundamentals support price appreciation, with a bearish view unlikely unless some kind of reversal back below $8 develops.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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