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News and Trade Ideas (CURRENCIES)


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Making informed trading decisions and efficiently managing risk require keeping up with the most recent news and trade ideas in the currency markets. Keeping a watch on the release of economic statistics, political changes, and world events might offer insightful information about potential trading opportunities.

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The recent decline in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY can be attributed to a shift towards safer investments, with havens gaining ground in the market. As uncertainty persists, traders are moving away from riskier assets and towards safe-havens, resulting in a decline in these major currency pairs. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts in the coming days and whether this trend will continue or not.

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EUR/USD awaits rate decisions, USD/JPY nears March high and AUD/USD rallies on surprise RBA rate hike

Outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD as the RBA hikes rates by 25 basis-points ahead of Wednesday’s Fed and Thursday’s ECB rate decisions.

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023

EUR/USD oscillates around the $1.1000 mark

EUR/USD continues to range trade around the minor psychological $1.10 mark ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) and Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting in which both central banks are expected to hike their rates by 25 basis-points (bp).

Were last week’s low at $1.0963 to give way, the $1.0929 late March high and also the mid-April low at $1.091 would be targeted. If, however, a rise above Monday’s high at $1.1035 were to be seen, the $1.1075 to $1.1095 April highs would be back in the picture. Further up the January 2022 low and early March 2022 high can be spotted at $1.1121 to $1.1122.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY rally nears March peak

Last week’s swift rally in the USD/JPY exchange rate, on the back of comments by the newly appointed governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda in which he modified the central banks’ forward guidance by removing references to the Covid-19 pandemic and vowed to keep interest rates at “current or lower” levels, has taken the cross close to its March peak at ¥137.91.

Around the March high the exchange rate is likely to at least short-term consolidate. Slips should find support along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥136.97, below which there is no significant support to speak of until the ¥135.13 to ¥135.11 mid-March and mid-April highs.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD rallies on surprise 25 basis-point rate hike

AUD/USD shot back up to its 55-day SMA at $0.6708 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised market players with a 25 bp rate hike to 3.85% and hinted at the possibility of further tightening in order to tame domestic inflation which at 7% remains stubbornly high.

The February-to-May downtrend line at $0.6724 has also nearly been reached, as has the 200-day SMA at $0.6734, both of which are likely to at least short-term cap. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, however, the April high at $0.6806 may be revisited. Minor support can be found around the 24 March and 10 April lows at $0.6626 to $0.662.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP stabilise while USD/JPY rises on US debt ceiling optimism

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY ahead of Tuesday’s US debt ceiling discussions.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 15 May 2023 

EUR/USD tries to stabilise ahead of minor support at $1.0832

EUR/USD’s swift descent over the past week or so seems to have found temporary support along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0854 ahead of Tuesday’s meeting between US President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss budget negotiations to avoid a default.

The cross so far seems to hold above its 10 April low at $1.0832, a drop through which would likely lead to the mid-February high at $1.0804 being revisited.

Further potential support can be spotted around the early April low at $1.0789 while resistance sits between the 23 March high and 2 May low at $1.0929 to $1.0943. While this resistance zone caps, downside pressure is expected to retain the upper hand.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP’s recovery from its five-month low is ongoing

EUR/GBP’s drop to levels last traded in December of last year has been followed by a bounce off last week’s low at £0.8662 which was thwarted by the Bank of England’s (BoE) twelfth consecutive rate hike to 4.5%. The cross thus remained below its 200-day SMA at £0.8741 which may this week act as resistance as well.

Above it the late-February low at £0.8755 may also cap any attempt of a move higher, together with the early-May low at £0.876.

A slip through Friday’s low at $0.8694 may lead to last week’s 2023 low at £0.8662 being revisited.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY eyes the ¥137.77 to ¥137.91 region

Last week’s rally in the USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to have legs and may take it to the 200-day SMA at ¥137.01 above which beckon the March and early-May highs at ¥137.77 to ¥137.91.

Potential minor retracements lower should find at least interim support between last Wednesday’s high and the mid-March and mid-April highs at ¥135.47 to ¥135.11.

The medium-term March-to-May uptrend will remain valid while the late-April low at ¥133.02 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD slip while EUR/GBP stabilises amid higher-than-expected UK unemployment reading

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD post 3.9% March UK unemployment report.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 16 May 2023 

EUR/USD remains under pressure ahead of German ZEW survey

EUR/USD'S two-week descent revisits the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.086 ahead of Tuesday’s German ZEW Economic Sentiment data release which may lead to a fall through its one-month $1.0848 low.

In this case the 10 April low at $1.0832 would be eyed, followed by the mid-February high at $1.0804. Further potential support sits around the early April low at $1.0789 while resistance can be spotted between the 23 March high and 2 May low at $1.0929 to $1.0943.

While this resistance zone caps, downside pressure is expected to dominate.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP holds as UK unemployment rises to 3.9%

EUR/GBP's slide to levels last traded in December of last year has been followed by another minor recovery rally as March UK unemployment data came in worse than expected at 3.9% (versus 3.8% in the previous month) and average earnings at an unchanged 5.8% as forecast.

The cross is once again trying to head back up towards its 200-day SMA at £0.8742 which last week acted as resistance and may do so again.

Above it the late February low at £0.8755 may also stall an attempt of a move higher taking place, together with the early May low at £0.876. A slip through Monday’s low at $0.8678 may lead to last week’s 2023 low at £0.8662 being revisited but this scenario currently looks less probable than a continued rise, at least over the next few days.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD resumes its descent as UK unemployment data exceeds forecasts

GBP/USD's recovery rally from Friday’s $1.2445 low stalled at $1.2534 on Monday before resuming its descent on a higher March reading for UK unemployment at 3.9%.

A fall through last week’s $1.2445 low would put the $1.2387 to $1.2345 zone on the map. It consists of the mid- to late April lows and should offer good support. Support below this area lies at the mid-February high and early April low at $1.2275 to $1.227.

Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal, rise and daily chart close above Monday’s $1.2534 high could lead to the mid-April high at $1.2546 being retested, above which the late April peak can be spotted at $1.2584.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD holds up better than GBP/USD amid US debt ceiling negotiations

Outlook on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY amid ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 22 May 2023 

EUR/USD recovers from near two-month low

EUR/USD's recent decline has taken it to a near two-month low on flight-to-safety flows into the US dollar due to ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations.

The cross is now trying to stabilise above Thursday’s low at $1.0761, made around the mid-March high at $1.076. Further down sits the 24 March low at $1.0714.

Resistance sits at the 10 April low at $1.0832, the previous week’s low at $1.0848 low, along the one-month downtrend line at $1.0868 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0871. While below $1.0871, downside pressure should retain the upper hand.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD remains under pressure amid ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations

GBP/USD’s two-week descent has last week taken it to marginally above the $1.2387 to $1.2345 mid- to late April lows and 55-day SMA which this week should offer support.

Support below $1.2345 sits at the mid-February high and early April low at $1.2275 to $1.227. In case of a minor bounce being seen on Monday, the $1.25 region may cap.

Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal, rise and daily chart close above last Wednesday’s $1.2546 high would put the late April high at $1.2584 back on the map.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY retraces lower from its six-month high

After six consecutive days of gains, USD/JPY last week topped out at ¥138.74, and this week is likely to revisit the 200-day SMA at ¥137.11.

If slid through, the ¥135.13 to ¥134.77 early January, mid-March and mid-April highs may also be back in view.

Immediate resistance is at the ¥138.17 December peak.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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