Jump to content

The folly of market timing is ....(fill-in the blanks)


Recommended Posts

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-will-keep-going-up-this-fall-for-these-9-reasons-11629911414?mod=home-page

"Not only is there an abundance of research that proves the folly of market timing to avoid downturns...." - 

This is where I laugh out loud whenever I read this type of BS research line from the above post as the real gurus will not want to let out their secret out of the bag so easily less it will become useless when everyone knows how to read the charts well. 

I can actually time the market but that doesn't mean I'm a full expert on this subject matter as I acknowledge that it's a very very difficult skill to master. But it can be done with continuous observation of pattern recognition. 

Despite the line above, I do agree with his with his 9 reasons given that the market will continue to trend-up (after the NFP report play is done) with the occasional profit taking runs to be expected. 

Trade with care! 😎🍸🌈

Link to comment
On 03/09/2021 at 15:46, Kodiak said:

The trend is up

Money printing?

More stimulus?

 

My analysis says that the early part of 2022 will be the timing when the stock tsunami that will occur; assuming there's no black swans like a  breakout of war for e.g.

One of the most consistent analyst with great timing is Leon Cooperman and his public view on the state of the markets next year is very interesting https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/30/leon-cooperman-stock-market-outlook.html
😎

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,203
    • Total Posts
      90,749
    • Total Members
      41,311
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Millers
    Joined 31/01/23 10:12
  • Posts

    • In a week packed with global macro and micro releases, the key events locally are a series of updates on the Australian housing market, which continues to cool as higher interest rates reduce affordability.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Inflation Currency Interest rate CFD AUD/USD  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023  Kicking things off today, housing credit growth for December rose by just 0.3%, the slowest pace since October 2022. At the same time, Retail sales fell by 3.9% in December (vs -0.2% expected), for the most significant monthly fall since August 2020. The fall in December unwinds the 1.4% gain in November, boosted by Black Friday cyber sales. Core Logic Dwelling prices (Wednesday) are expected to show housing prices fell -1.1% in the seasonally quiet month of January, extending the correction that began in May 2022 Building Approvals fell by 9%, following a 56% fall in October. The market is looking for a modest bounce back of +1% in December. Building Approval data is a notoriously volatile data set, and expectations range from -5% to +8% Housing Finance fell for a sixth straight month in November to be 24.8% below the peak of January 2022. The decline is expected to continue in December, with the market looking for a 2.5% fall in December (Friday). Following the release of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data last week, the RBA is widely expected to lift its official cash rate by 25bp from 3.1% to 3.35% next Tuesday. The interest rate market then has another 50bp of rate hikes priced by August of this year, which would take the cash “peak” rate to 3.85%. The RBA has made clear its “priority is to re-establish low inflation and return inflation to the 2–3 per cent range over time.” While a series of RBA rate hikes in 2023 would be another blow to the housing market, they would be good news for the AUD/USD, already enjoying the tailwinds of the China re-opening and higher commodity prices. Overnight the past 24 hours, the AUD/USD has fallen back to .7050 on soft retail sales data, risk aversion flows, and with the US dollar in demand overnight for month-end rebalancing flows. After reaching and marginally breaching our August .7137 target from this article in Mid-January here last week, we expect to see the current pullback in the AUD/USD continue towards uptrend support at .6900c. At worst, the pullback may extend to the 200-day moving average at .6810 to work off overbought readings and to rebuild energy for its next leg higher towards .7300c. AUD/USD daily chart   Source: TradingView Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
    • Hi All, please kindly note that the integration between Tradingview and IG will be live by April 2023. All the best, OfentseIG
    • ASX 200 afternoon report: 31st of January 2023 ASX 200 market update as of 31st January, 3.30 pm AEDT.   Source: Bloomberg   Forex Indices Shares ASX S&P/ASX 200 Retail  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023  The ASX 200 trades 13 points (0.18%) lower at 7468 at 3.30 pm Sydney time. The ASX 200 has reversed lower this afternoon on month-end selling rebalancing flows, and softer-than-expected retail sales and housing credit data for December. Housing credit growth for December rose by just 0.3%, the slowest pace since October 2022. At the same time, Retail sales fell by 3.9% in December (vs -0.2% expected), the most significant monthly fall since August 2020. While these numbers won’t stop the RBA from raising rates next week or ease downside concerns around the Australian housing market or household consumption, they have helped to ease expectations around the RBA’s peak cash rate as it fell from 3.85% to 3.75%. Consumer Staple sector Falling house prices, higher inflation and RBA rate hikes which will weigh on discretionary spending, have been behind the defensive Consumer Staple sector outperforming. Woolworths added 3.2% to $35.88 Coles added 2.45% to $17.77 Metcash added 1.2% to $4.17 Infant formula maker Bubs Australia plunged 9.15% on disappointing sales in China from extended lockdowns. What does soft housing and retail data mean for the AUD/USD? Read Tony's analysis here. IT sector Megaport plunged by 23% to $5.90 following a disappointing quarterly update BNPL stocks Sezzle -7.69% ZIP -3.28% Block -2.37% fell following the release of the weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers, which will weigh on earnings. Financial sector The big banks have reversed lower on the toxic mix of weaker credit appetite and evidence that households are beginning to feel the impact of the cost-of-living pressures. NAB fell -0.38% to $31.71 ANZ fell 0.24% to $24.97 Westpac fell -0.21% to $23.70 CBA is trading flat at $109.77, after making a fresh all-time high earlier today at $110.45. Mining sector A mixed day for the material stocks despite a bounce in China’s PMI data, now in expansionary territory at 50.1 following China’s re-opening in Mid-December. Rio Tinto added 1.35% to $127.37 Fortescue added 0.32% to $22.65 BHP added 0.28% to $49.36 Mineral Resources fell 3.2% to $89.57 Lynas Rare Earths fell 2.94% to $9.43. Technical analysis Over the past five sessions, there has been a notable loss of upside momentum in the ASX 200 - understandable after a storming run higher in January. Additionally, the ASX 200 is overbought, and for the Elliott Wave enthusiasts, there is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low on bearish RSI divergence, which warns of a possible pullback. We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area. ASX 200 daily chart   Source: TradingView The figures stated are as of January 31st, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
×
×
  • Create New...