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To the mooon!


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Anyone noticed Tesla price action of late? It's almost singlehandedly keeping the Nasdaq in the green. I had shorted it, but it had become too painful so took a haircut and called it quits and lesson learned. Tesla is the meme stock of meme stocks, where fundamentals no longer apply. According to mElon Teslatics everyone will be driving a Tesla and all other car companies are destined for recycling. It justifies its astonishing p/e 100x  + metric with vague, fantastical projections of future profits, difficult to realise. Currently Tesla trades with a through the roof RSI of, wait for it, 90.7 a jaw dropping CCI of 257.5 and a 20 point gap between MACD and signal, the stochastics are equally stratospheric at 90...

It's the sort of TA most crypto currencies could only dream of.  Frankly, I see the most valuable part of Tesla as  the 46 666 BTC they own. Where, quite the other  $995 billion of value comes from is anyone's guess. Yes, it's true they are profitable, but right now so is the whole sector. Yes, there is a maniacal, loyal band of fundamentalist mElon lovers seeing him as a deified tech super spirit embodying all that is good and right in technology. Personally, I like him, like his ideas, but find the price of Tesla and Teslas to be somewhat in the range of offensively excessive. Would far rather own SpaceX shares truth be told. I digress, 

The technicals of Tesla all point to it reaching it's Zenith, it's about as far up the mountain as is unreasonably reasonable atm. But hey, what do I know? I am a simple , unfashionable Oil and Gasoline trader, my positions on which have not changed. Am still long on Oil and Gas and energy as a whole, going into 22 with a price target of $110-$120+ for Brent by end of 22, possibly higher. Expect to see $100 within 6 months, in all likelihood sooner. 

If you have been riding the Tesla wave, well done, but do you really justify that price? I struggle and fail too. But have learned  not to mess with the Meme. 

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Guest John8865

Hi 786 Trader, 

Couldnt agree with you more , im short Nasdaq all day long because as you rightly point out the N100 completely propped up my Tesla in my humble opinion. Excellent point on oil however I see potential 140 a barrel by mid 2022 , supply and demand will always dictate. One other point on Tesla 100,000 units to be purchased by Hertz ? at what price I wonder and when will they (Tesla) be able to fill the order i wonder. Anyway expect lots of volatility !!!!    

  

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Hi 786Trader,

i was confused early in 2020 with the BS i read about Elon and Tesla, i was following it very close and then started to do deeper research, which uncovered stellar info.

Yes many of the regular metrics don't seem to apply to Tesla, Ive come across from FX trading to focus more on specific shares, as it certainly looks to have far better fundamentals to understand.

As a Target for analysis it has features which are unique, Tesla has zero dealership channels, they also manufacture many critical components themselves, they've had a few years to perfect their battery cell tech, and all of those who laughed at Elon using "laptop batteries" to power a car. His team have now the 4080 battery cell to be launched, a better battery power density, improved weight, less Rare Earth metals, and simpler to make! 

I'm sure you have heard of Cathy Wood of Ark invest, she is quite a bull on TESLA, yet she shows great insight into why Tesla is cool!

Here is my skin in the game

 

Screenshot 2021-10-26 at 19.27.19.png

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image.png

 

  • Tesla hit a $1 trillion valuation for the first time ever on Monday, after eclipsing $900 billion on Friday.
  • The move solidified Tesla as the second-fastest company ever to hit the milestone valuation, barely behind Facebook.
  • Shares of Tesla have surged nearly 30% in October thanks to record profits and a 100,000 vehicle order from Hertz.

Tesla: Current and upcoming models, prices, specs, and more - Electrek

 

Business Insider

 

All the best - MongiIG

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50 minutes ago, MongiIG said:

17% surge in a week, 30% in a month.....totally normal? VW for example delivered 231,600 all-electric vehicles and 190500 plug in hybrid vehicles in 2020 and in the most advanced EV market in the world (Norway) outsold and usurped Tesla, taking #1 and #3 spot sales by volume. VW ID3 being top seller VW sold 9.3 million vehicles 2020. Tesla are on target to sell 786000 vehicles in 2021. VW are valued at $100 billion, Tesla $1 trillion. Tesla stock surges are Meme-like in weight and size. A dangerous precedent. 

As a trader it is great if you are flying to the moon on Tesla stock valuations.  Despite the Hertz order,     (fulfilment of which is dependent on Austin being 100% functional), the giga factory in Berlin, operational efficiencies and implementation, export of China vehicles with cheaper Iron phosphate batteries, software issues with full automated driving, all add to operations that will effect profitability with even the slightest hitch or snag. P/e metrics don't stack up, in fact one needs rose tinted glasses and a heady mix of excessive wonderland optimism when one does ones due diligence and tries to see past the hype regards Tesla numbers. The TA looks like its ready to burst/correct. It's flying a car to the moon...

All the same, if you are on it and believe, good luck to you. Am steering well clear myself.

 

All the best - MongiIG

 

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