Year ahead.....

[786Trader]

Happy New year to all..

Here area few reckonings for 22.....As an Oil and Gasoline trader (mostly), lets start with that: 2021 was a good year for oil and Gasoline and Gas for that matter...prices doubled in the year  (Oil) with two  20%+ corrections in August and November. Currently prices are rising again and heading for $80 for WTI. Opec is due to increase supply, though this is not guaranteed as some members will be unable to fulfil their quotas, leading to demand outstripping supply in Q1 and some of Q2. All this despite air travel not returning to previous norms worldwide.  Supply side constraints also will exacerbate the price volatility as the majors who need to invest heavily to increase supply will instead allocate same funds to shareholder dividend and buyback. The investors will win out on this occasion. The public will not. the Green economy will come at a cost. I expect to see $100 + WTI this year, probably twice (Q1, Q4).  If there are folk expecting things to go back to normal, I suspect there being a slim to no chance of that. We are in a new paradigm people. Things are different and still changing. Adapt or perish.

The Equities will probably continue to break new ground until the music stops somewhere end of Q1 and we have a real correction of 15-20%. Expect prices to rise again subsequent. Also expect more scrutiny of the Faang stocks. No bad thing. It is happening in China and will happen here. Microsoft may get away with it, Meta and Google wont. Again, no bad thing. Crypto had a break out year as more awareness of new tech possibilities spread. There is too much good and potential in Crypto and web 3 apps for it to be ignored. It will, however be regulated. Which is a good thing generally, but only if the regulators actually understand that which they are trying to regulate. Which they don't.

There is a good deal of sabre rattling globally, more so than in the recent past and I expect Defence equities to do well and the new work life balance may prompt more of us to invest in smarter running/ exercise wear, come summer. 

The situation in the US may prove to be at once entertaining and terrifying, as the increasingly divergent parties prepare for the Mid term elections. The Republicans are expecting to do well and take control of one or both houses. I am not convinced of this on account of the elephant in the room that is the Donut Trump. The fact is some folk love him, but more folk  are actively repelled by him, as the election proved. All Biden and the Democrats have to do, is appear reasonable and moderate and they will win seats enough to stay in power, which will really annoy and frustrate the Republicans even more than they are already. If the Donald is visible and actively campaigning for the Elephants, which he has promised to do, then I suggest he will hand the Dems victory through motivating those opposed to him to get out and vote. He wont see it that way. I may be in the minority on this, but so be it. 

I expect inflation to continue its upward trajectory well into Q2 and probably the whole year. I also expect the Fed and other central banks will remain as accommodative as possible for as long as possible, which will lead to the continued stagflation we are experiencing now. Raising rates and tightening money supply is a double edged sword and could easily be the catalyst to markets heavily correcting end Q1. That and the threat of war/civil war. 

Suspect it may be a year of very wet spring and long hot dry summer.....in short we are still on the rollercoaster so take pleasure and profits where you are able, stay well and healthy and remember money is by no means everything, useful yes, but no panacea. Good luck traders.

 

 

[MongiIG]

On 04/01/2022 at 12:35, 786Trader said:

Happy New year to all..

Here area few reckonings for 22.....As an Oil and Gasoline trader (mostly), lets start with that: 2021 was a good year for oil and Gasoline and Gas for that matter...prices doubled in the year  (Oil) with two  20%+ corrections in August and November. Currently prices are rising again and heading for $80 for WTI. Opec is due to increase supply, though this is not guaranteed as some members will be unable to fulfil their quotas, leading to demand outstripping supply in Q1 and some of Q2. All this despite air travel not returning to previous norms worldwide.  Supply side constraints also will exacerbate the price volatility as the majors who need to invest heavily to increase supply will instead allocate same funds to shareholder dividend and buyback. The investors will win out on this occasion. The public will not. the Green economy will come at a cost. I expect to see $100 + WTI this year, probably twice (Q1, Q4).  If there are folk expecting things to go back to normal, I suspect there being a slim to no chance of that. We are in a new paradigm people. Things are different and still changing. Adapt or perish.

The Equities will probably continue to break new ground until the music stops somewhere end of Q1 and we have a real correction of 15-20%. Expect prices to rise again subsequent. Also expect more scrutiny of the Faang stocks. No bad thing. It is happening in China and will happen here. Microsoft may get away with it, Meta and Google wont. Again, no bad thing. Crypto had a break out year as more awareness of new tech possibilities spread. There is too much good and potential in Crypto and web 3 apps for it to be ignored. It will, however be regulated. Which is a good thing generally, but only if the regulators actually understand that which they are trying to regulate. Which they don't.

There is a good deal of sabre rattling globally, more so than in the recent past and I expect Defence equities to do well and the new work life balance may prompt more of us to invest in smarter running/ exercise wear, come summer. 

The situation in the US may prove to be at once entertaining and terrifying, as the increasingly divergent parties prepare for the Mid term elections. The Republicans are expecting to do well and take control of one or both houses. I am not convinced of this on account of the elephant in the room that is the Donut Trump. The fact is some folk love him, but more folk  are actively repelled by him, as the election proved. All Biden and the Democrats have to do, is appear reasonable and moderate and they will win seats enough to stay in power, which will really annoy and frustrate the Republicans even more than they are already. If the Donald is visible and actively campaigning for the Elephants, which he has promised to do, then I suggest he will hand the Dems victory through motivating those opposed to him to get out and vote. He wont see it that way. I may be in the minority on this, but so be it. 

I expect inflation to continue its upward trajectory well into Q2 and probably the whole year. I also expect the Fed and other central banks will remain as accommodative as possible for as long as possible, which will lead to the continued stagflation we are experiencing now. Raising rates and tightening money supply is a double edged sword and could easily be the catalyst to markets heavily correcting end Q1. That and the threat of war/civil war. 

Suspect it may be a year of very wet spring and long hot dry summer.....in short we are still on the rollercoaster so take pleasure and profits where you are able, stay well and healthy and remember money is by no means everything, useful yes, but no panacea. Good luck traders.

 

 

Hi @786Trader

Thanks for sharing your outlook for 2022.

Below some Q1 2022 outlook forum posts in case you missed them:

 

All the best in 2022 and happy trading - MongiIG