Jump to content

Year ahead.....


Recommended Posts

Happy New year to all..

Here area few reckonings for 22.....As an Oil and Gasoline trader (mostly), lets start with that: 2021 was a good year for oil and Gasoline and Gas for that matter...prices doubled in the year  (Oil) with two  20%+ corrections in August and November. Currently prices are rising again and heading for $80 for WTI. Opec is due to increase supply, though this is not guaranteed as some members will be unable to fulfil their quotas, leading to demand outstripping supply in Q1 and some of Q2. All this despite air travel not returning to previous norms worldwide.  Supply side constraints also will exacerbate the price volatility as the majors who need to invest heavily to increase supply will instead allocate same funds to shareholder dividend and buyback. The investors will win out on this occasion. The public will not. the Green economy will come at a cost. I expect to see $100 + WTI this year, probably twice (Q1, Q4).  If there are folk expecting things to go back to normal, I suspect there being a slim to no chance of that. We are in a new paradigm people. Things are different and still changing. Adapt or perish.

The Equities will probably continue to break new ground until the music stops somewhere end of Q1 and we have a real correction of 15-20%. Expect prices to rise again subsequent. Also expect more scrutiny of the Faang stocks. No bad thing. It is happening in China and will happen here. Microsoft may get away with it, Meta and Google wont. Again, no bad thing. Crypto had a break out year as more awareness of new tech possibilities spread. There is too much good and potential in Crypto and web 3 apps for it to be ignored. It will, however be regulated. Which is a good thing generally, but only if the regulators actually understand that which they are trying to regulate. Which they don't.

There is a good deal of sabre rattling globally, more so than in the recent past and I expect Defence equities to do well and the new work life balance may prompt more of us to invest in smarter running/ exercise wear, come summer. 

The situation in the US may prove to be at once entertaining and terrifying, as the increasingly divergent parties prepare for the Mid term elections. The Republicans are expecting to do well and take control of one or both houses. I am not convinced of this on account of the elephant in the room that is the Donut Trump. The fact is some folk love him, but more folk  are actively repelled by him, as the election proved. All Biden and the Democrats have to do, is appear reasonable and moderate and they will win seats enough to stay in power, which will really annoy and frustrate the Republicans even more than they are already. If the Donald is visible and actively campaigning for the Elephants, which he has promised to do, then I suggest he will hand the Dems victory through motivating those opposed to him to get out and vote. He wont see it that way. I may be in the minority on this, but so be it. 

I expect inflation to continue its upward trajectory well into Q2 and probably the whole year. I also expect the Fed and other central banks will remain as accommodative as possible for as long as possible, which will lead to the continued stagflation we are experiencing now. Raising rates and tightening money supply is a double edged sword and could easily be the catalyst to markets heavily correcting end Q1. That and the threat of war/civil war. 

Suspect it may be a year of very wet spring and long hot dry summer.....in short we are still on the rollercoaster so take pleasure and profits where you are able, stay well and healthy and remember money is by no means everything, useful yes, but no panacea. Good luck traders.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
On 04/01/2022 at 12:35, 786Trader said:

Happy New year to all..

Here area few reckonings for 22.....As an Oil and Gasoline trader (mostly), lets start with that: 2021 was a good year for oil and Gasoline and Gas for that matter...prices doubled in the year  (Oil) with two  20%+ corrections in August and November. Currently prices are rising again and heading for $80 for WTI. Opec is due to increase supply, though this is not guaranteed as some members will be unable to fulfil their quotas, leading to demand outstripping supply in Q1 and some of Q2. All this despite air travel not returning to previous norms worldwide.  Supply side constraints also will exacerbate the price volatility as the majors who need to invest heavily to increase supply will instead allocate same funds to shareholder dividend and buyback. The investors will win out on this occasion. The public will not. the Green economy will come at a cost. I expect to see $100 + WTI this year, probably twice (Q1, Q4).  If there are folk expecting things to go back to normal, I suspect there being a slim to no chance of that. We are in a new paradigm people. Things are different and still changing. Adapt or perish.

The Equities will probably continue to break new ground until the music stops somewhere end of Q1 and we have a real correction of 15-20%. Expect prices to rise again subsequent. Also expect more scrutiny of the Faang stocks. No bad thing. It is happening in China and will happen here. Microsoft may get away with it, Meta and Google wont. Again, no bad thing. Crypto had a break out year as more awareness of new tech possibilities spread. There is too much good and potential in Crypto and web 3 apps for it to be ignored. It will, however be regulated. Which is a good thing generally, but only if the regulators actually understand that which they are trying to regulate. Which they don't.

There is a good deal of sabre rattling globally, more so than in the recent past and I expect Defence equities to do well and the new work life balance may prompt more of us to invest in smarter running/ exercise wear, come summer. 

The situation in the US may prove to be at once entertaining and terrifying, as the increasingly divergent parties prepare for the Mid term elections. The Republicans are expecting to do well and take control of one or both houses. I am not convinced of this on account of the elephant in the room that is the Donut Trump. The fact is some folk love him, but more folk  are actively repelled by him, as the election proved. All Biden and the Democrats have to do, is appear reasonable and moderate and they will win seats enough to stay in power, which will really annoy and frustrate the Republicans even more than they are already. If the Donald is visible and actively campaigning for the Elephants, which he has promised to do, then I suggest he will hand the Dems victory through motivating those opposed to him to get out and vote. He wont see it that way. I may be in the minority on this, but so be it. 

I expect inflation to continue its upward trajectory well into Q2 and probably the whole year. I also expect the Fed and other central banks will remain as accommodative as possible for as long as possible, which will lead to the continued stagflation we are experiencing now. Raising rates and tightening money supply is a double edged sword and could easily be the catalyst to markets heavily correcting end Q1. That and the threat of war/civil war. 

Suspect it may be a year of very wet spring and long hot dry summer.....in short we are still on the rollercoaster so take pleasure and profits where you are able, stay well and healthy and remember money is by no means everything, useful yes, but no panacea. Good luck traders.

 

 

Hi @786Trader

Thanks for sharing your outlook for 2022.

Below some Q1 2022 outlook forum posts in case you missed them:

 

All the best in 2022 and happy trading - MongiIG

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,569
    • Total Posts
      96,878
    • Total Members
      44,144
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Mennu
    Joined 29/11/23 22:07
  • Posts

    • That's a wise call and it's important to also confirm that the exchange of your chosen should be in compliance and perhaps licensed in your country. 
    • Investing in crypto could be challenging especially the Fear of Missing out Lambo. This mostly affect traders trading strategy and ideology. Predicting the right time to buy is always cumbersome and that is why many analyst advise DCA because it curtails FOMO and gives you a long-term crypto trading mentality. In crypto Dollar Cost Averaging involves investing the same amount of money in a target token at regular intervals over a certain period of time, regardless of price. This will help to control volatility on your portfolios and minimize FOMO For example when you decide to invest $100 on a token and invest $10 daily or weekly or monthly till you fulfilled you $100 target investment on the token irrespective of the price of the token. This strategy helps a crypto trader to build his portfolio over the long term thereby he/she is not bothered by short-term volatility in the broader markets. This strategy mostly favours low-budget traders in building a strong portfolio but the problem most normally encounter is exchange minimum trading amount. One analyst advised on how to mitigate this was to accumulate on exchange that has lower trading fees and later send to where you desire to hold. He also noted that some of this exchanges are good in listing good projects for you to be among the early birds. Do you think DCA is the best method to accumulate token and which exchange offers the lowest tradeable balance and trading fees?
    • DXY   now wait for confirmation or rejection 
×
×
  • Create New...
us