Jump to content

Commodity Volcano

Recommended Posts

What a time it is to be a commodity trader.....from Wheat to Gold to Palladium to Oil Gas and Gasoline....melt up is understatement indeed. Sanctions price busters....In normal circumstances oil should have just about touched $100 through supply constraints and demand increase. Tuesday, Brent touched $119! This has made for some pretty frantic and stellar gains and loses. ( I have shorted WTI @$105 and gasoline @30000  ....which seemed reasonable but not in these wholly unreasonable times) Wheat price is growing faster than bamboo and  commodity inflation is rampant. What goes up....indeed, however, we live in interesting times and all norms have been jettisoned in favour of psychotic lunacy on most fronts...it's the new trend......Russia becoming a new North Korea both internally and externally and Ukraine turning to rubble and ruin(much like the rouble..  trouble, rubble and ruin)

Equity on the other hand is not fairing so well in the storm of  Vladimir Vladimirovich's making.....he is not solely to blame mind, just mostly and his actions since Presidents day have been nothing short of horrifying. He is also showing no sign of abating in his mission to crush Ukraine and redraw the map of Europe ..motivation for which suggests murderous zeal, delusional paranoia and kleptomania....he invades (military operates) and the price of wheat, gas and oil gain 20% in a week, which is good for him personally, not so great for anyone else. Re-drawing the borders would naturally give him access and ownership of the trillions of cubic meters of Ukrainian gas under the black sea and rid him of the pesky transit fees he has to pay Ukraine currently. Folk at home, blissfully unaware of his  murderous misdeeds, miscalculation and mania sate him once more a hero in liberating some Russian speaking brothers from genocide (!!??????) Western decadence and neo nazis(!!??) and securing new territory as a buffer from Western influence. Not to mention the profits from Gas, Oil, Wheat, Fertiliser, Palladium, Titanium, -kaa-ching$$$$ for him..... So a little economic pain in the form of 20% interest rates, limited access to foreign currency (yuan excepted), inflation and a near worthless currency are prices worth paying as he is doing it all for the benefit of mother/father Russia. Not to mention the casualties....heroes all....we wont mention the Russian stock market that is currently in hibernation, waiting for spring and or peace or Putin's sanity to to return. Don't hold your breath on that.

Where does that leave the humble trader? Buying commodities, shorting equities, reading charts and watching the news for any sign of a stop to the madness, for it is madness. China and Xi must be very slightly perturbed as they observe their "bosom" buddy and limitless friend and realise they have got into bed with a total psychopath and must have come to some small realisation that invading another country wont work if they (the citizens) object to it wholesale, as Taiwan would, for example. Plus, sanctions and world condemnation are not really palatable either. Suppose Put-him-in-the-bin Putin will get used to being the junior partner of Xi in the future new world order of their dreams. He likes being junior and is sooo trustworthy...

So fellow traders, Oil/commodities are heading higher as no one will buy Russian Oil except China, Somalia and Zimbabwe (@ a 20% discount) Until there is peace again volatility is a friend and bed fellow. So stay well and enjoy every moment of life. Who knows what the future will bring?


  • Like 1
Link to comment


I posted this in my "Time Cycles" thread virtually a year ago (see link at the bottom of this post) - It's all linked especially the soft commodities - You very very rarely get a Trader/Analyst making such bold claims or calls MONTHS or YEARS in advance

The vast majority of these markets formed swing formations I mention in my "How to Win" thread BUT the absolute KEY to all this is KNOWING about the Time Cycle, anyone understanding that the 2020 cycles had "Inverted" knew that as a low it should therefore equal highs up into the next cycle dates (Just look for WD GANN's TRIPLE bottoms on Wheat, Gold etc)

Gann said in 1909 "Some of the biggest rallies start from a Double or Triple Bottom formations" - Its rude not to trade them!

On Time Cycles - ALL financial markets work out to TIME, its WHY markets "wiggle" around and then have tops and bottoms - If people can work out the basic cycles from the below link as I mentioned, then they should be able to "roughly" work out when it tops (which is soon!)

I cannot begin to tell you just how much TIME affects us Humans - From these time cycles, people are losing wealth in the Investments, losing through Inflation from commodities etc - KNOWING the consequences of such cycles ALLOWS YOU as a human to POSITION your financial affairs accordingly to the outlook but the worst thing is people don't have a clue about Time or Time Cycles and believe that all these events happen out of the blue

Gann Secondary Reaction or Elliott Wave 2 LOW in March 2020 allowed long term Investors to get on board the train for an ultra low risk/exposure trade - see if you can find the double bottom in 2021 that kick started the recent rally = BRENT ETF


Same for Wheat  in 2020 and a beautiful "square on" Triple Bottom recently = Wheat ETF


An unrelated to financial markets - Time controls WEATHER cycles, the hype around Global warming is valid, but its not extinction for the Earth, once the current up cycle tops out, the Earth will start to cool again  - this video proves it:




  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Thanks for the input,  The issue is being resolved.  IG took a position Twice.  Remedy is imminent.
    • Prepare to witness a paradigm shift in Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions with Merlin Chain, an innovative platform that integrates the ZK-rollup network, decentralized oracle, and on-chain BTC anti-fraud module. With seamless compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), Merlin Chain sets new standards for security, transparency, and interoperability in the blockchain ecosystem.  Creating a Safe and Transparent Environment: At the core of Merlin Chain's mission lies its commitment to creating a safe and transparent environment for all investors. By integrating anti-fraud security solutions directly into the blockchain, Merlin Chain mitigates the risk of fraudulent activities and ensures the integrity of transactions. With Merlin Chain, users can trust that their assets are protected and transactions are executed with the highest level of security and transparency. Excitement mounts as Merlin Chain (MERL) prepares for listing on Bitget Exchange on April 19th, 2024, at 10:00 (UTC). This milestone event not only amplifies Merlin Chain's visibility but also provides users with a trusted platform to trade and engage with the MERL token. As Merlin Chain continues to push the boundaries of Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions, its listing on Bitget Exchange marks a significant step forward in its journey towards broader recognition and adoption.
    • Rarible is a revolutionary platform for artists and creators in the digital world. It functions as both: Software: Artists can use it to create and sell unique crypto assets representing ownership of their digital work, like illustrations or animations. These are known as Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs). Marketplace: Buyers can discover and purchase these NFTs directly from creators, eliminating the need for intermediaries.   Built for the Community: It is a community-owned marketplace, powered by its native token, RARI. Owning RARI tokens gives holders a voice in shaping the platform’s future.   Exciting News! Rarible recently listed its token (RARI) on the Bitget exchange, along with a “candybomb” event to reward holders. This is a great opportunity for artists and crypto enthusiasts alike to explore the world of NFTs on Rarible.
  • Create New...