Jump to content

Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Awaits ECB Rate Decision

Recommended Posts

Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Gearing Up for ECB Rate Decision

Jul 15, 2022 | DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst


  • Different scenarios for next week’s ECB rate decision.
  • Parity still at risk as fundamental headwinds grow.


The euro has been testing parity several times this week but has yet to convincingly break below at this point. This sets up next week’s key risk event quite nicely with the ECB rate announcement scheduled on Thursday (see calendar below). Coinciding with the interest rate decision comes the expected resumption of Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on the same day and with political uncertainty at play, there is no guarantee that gas flows will resume.

The ECB has pre-announced a 25bps rate hike (which may not be the wisest choice) while money market price in 30-35bps as of now. That points to the possibility of a hawkish surprise however the current Italian political backdrop will weigh negatively on this outcome (widening BTP/Bund spreads). Key points to consider for the meeting will include more guidance around anti-fragmentation along with a weakening euro which is heightening the inflationary impact on the consumer.

Link to comment
On 15/07/2022 at 16:23, Kodiak said:


On 15/07/2022 at 19:10, RCtrader said:

It says the highest inflation rate ever, but ECB is still unmoved lol. However, what is the time frame that has been taken into account? 20 years? or 50 years?

Defining Week for the Euro: ECB Lift-Off, CPI and Bond Market Jitters

Jul 18, 2022 | DailyFX
Richard Snow, Analyst


  • ECB to finally achieve lift-off, Nord Stream maintenance ends and Italy PM resignation
  • BTP/BUND spreads widen before immediately pulling back – volatility raised
  • Key EUR/USD levels ahead of EU inflation and ECB

ECB pledges new crisis tool to help indebted southern states | Reuters
ECB to Finally Achieve Lift-off

This week Thursday we have the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision on hand. The much anticipated 25 basis point hike has been communicated extensively by ECB Governing Council members for many weeks now but there is still a possibility of a 50 basis point hike, especially if inflation data tomorrow necessitates it.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL. In our ASX Stocks Top 50 forecast service, we have accurately forecast a price decline from a high of around 17.15 down to around 16.00 at the current low. And we are now identifying COL could move higher in the short term outlook. ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Counter trend (Minute degree, green) Mode: Corrective Structure: Double Zigzag Position: Wave (b)-purple of Wave ((y))-green Latest forecast: Accurate forecast Details: The short-term outlook indicates that wave ((y))-green is unfolding as a Zigzag, and wave (a)-purple has ended. Therefore, wave (b)-purple is expected to continue pushing lower, seeking support around 16.01 - 15.71 before wave (c)-purple returns to rise higher. Pushing higher off 17.15 would renew the bull market view. Invalidation point: 15.35       ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (4-Hour Chart) ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Counter trend (Minute degree, green) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave (c)-purple of Wave ((y))-green Details: The shorter-term outlook suggests it appears the (b)-purple wave has bottomed, but a move higher than level 16.5 is needed to confirm this outlook. If this forecast is correct, wave (c)-purple will be opened to continue pushing higher, aiming for higher targets. Invalidation point: 15.37     Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends.   Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • Mathews Darcy mentioned that the quarterly production report released by BHP Group recently showed strong performance in copper and iron ore businesses, but adverse weather conditions affected coal production. Despite the upward trends in copper and iron ore prices, the market response to the stock price of BHP was relatively subdued. This article will delve into the analysis of the quarterly report of BHP Group and discuss its impact on the stock market and the reactions of investors. Quarterly Performance and Market Response Mathews Darcy pointed out that despite price increases in copper and iron ore on Wednesday, the stock price of BHP only saw a slight growth after the quarterly report release, reflecting the tepid response of investors to the report. Particularly noteworthy is the decline in the stock price of BHP amidst significant overnight increases in copper and nickel prices and iron ore prices maintaining a six-week high. Additionally, Mathews Darcy noted that major brokerage firms have begun adjusting their ratings and price targets for BHP based on the latest quarterly data. Several brokerage reports indicate that despite strong demand for copper and iron ore, the overall performance of BHP did not meet market expectations, possibly due to production constraints in its coal division. Investment Strategies and Future Outlook Mathews Darcy advised that when considering BHP stock, investors should carefully analyze the performance of its various divisions and future market prospects. While price fluctuations in mineral resources offer profit opportunities for BHP, investors should also be aware of the potential impact of price fluctuations on company performance. Furthermore, paying attention to brokerage research reports and rating updates will help investors better understand market dynamics and potential investment risks. Mathews Darcy also emphasized the importance of diversified investments, especially in an industry facing price volatility and geopolitical risks. Diversifying investments among different resource stocks can effectively reduce the impact of single market fluctuations on the investment portfolio.
    • Gonna participate! Personally, I'm DCAing in this memecoin....
  • Create New...