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JPY Weekly Forecast: Cautious Ueda Leaves Yen Exposed

Nov 18, 2023 3:00 AM +02:00

Warren Venketas, DailyFX Analyst

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/JPY DAILY CHART

image2.png

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

USD/JPY shows price action finding support off the 50-day moving average (yellow)and below the psychological 150.00 handle. Bears will be looking for a confirmation close below the moving average which could open up more downside. Bearish/negative divergence shown via the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may supplement this outlook but with Japanese fundamentals looking less supportive for the Yen, weak US data may be needed to catalyze this move.

Key resistance levels:

  • 151.95
  • 150.00

Key support levels:

  • 50-day MA
  • 148.16
  • 147.37
  • 145.91
  • 145.00
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  • 3 weeks later...

Hi @phillo,

Keep up the great analysis

Been watching and waiting for weeks

1047.thumb.JPG.af9537030531876f5f0484856611b885.JPG

This next chart is the US 10 yr Yld composite cycle Index - I stopped updating it in 2017, as I'm not interested in Int rates, I might at some point update it to show the next topping of the big cycle but that's decades away - Anyone living in the land of "low rates are here to stay" need to wake up, as over the next few decades rates are going to rise and rise and rise (definitely into double digits)

If you are macro based and use Int rates in your analysis, then try to picture the forward projected large BLUE and PINK cycles

To give you some scales to the chart - the FAR LEFT is the early 1960's, the PEAK in 1981/2 and the start of the blue flat lining line is 2017

Anyway, over the next few decades you will see a steady gradual rise as the Yld is forced upwards by those cycles

1048.thumb.JPG.0abfb83f8ae68373e1a58461b395326a.JPG

THT

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  • 2 weeks later...

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY bucked the broader trend and rallied strongly, soaring more than 1% at one point after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-accommodative stance, indicating that it will be difficult to exit negative rates and that uncertainty about the outlook is extremely high. Despite this solid advance, the pair failed to push past resistance at 144.75, with sellers staunchly defending this barrier, as seen in the daily chart below.

Looking ahead, it is crucial to monitor price behavior around the 144.75 level, bearing in mind that a breakout could open the door for a move towards 146.00, followed by 147.30. Conversely, a firm rejection from 144.75 may trigger a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average. On continued weakness, a retest of the December swing lows should not be dismissed.

USD/JPY daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York | Publication date: 

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  • 5 weeks later...

Market update: Japanese yen provides reversal hints: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY setups

Explore the recent bullish surge in the Japanese yen post-hawkish Bank of Japan meeting. Analyse key charts, including USD/JPY. Gain insights into technical dynamics in this concise overview.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg
 
Publication date: 

Japanese yen adds to bullish lift

The Japanese yen appears to be building on some early upward momentum, in the aftermath of a moderately hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in January. While there was no change to negative interest rate or alterations to the ongoing yield curve control, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda sees the likelihood of reaching the 2% target as “gradually increasing”. A simple, constructed Japanese yen index below shows a steady rise in the value of the yen yesterday, and today thus far.

Constructed Japanese yen index- equal weighted average of USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

The weekly hanging man candle was identified in the weekly US dollar forecast, and it signalled a possible move lower in USD/JPY ahead of this week. Since then, the subsequent red candle (this week thus far) heads lower, testing the 146.56 mark.

USD/JPY weekly chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

The daily chart shows the invalidation of a developing bullish pennant as price action heads lower. This presented an example where the longer timeframe view clashed with shorter-term, daily developments highlighting the importance of multi-timeframe analysis and recognition of the longer-term dynamics.

The pair currently tests the 146.50 level with 145 not far away. It is then that the 200-day simple moving average appears at long-term channel support. The zone of support may be difficult to breach should price action drop enough to test the area.

USD/JPY daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

EUR/JPY approaches key pivot point

EUR/JPY signalled a slowdown in bullish momentum (evidenced by longer upper wicks) before stalling and heading lower. The pair now tests the 50-day simple moving average but more importantly, heads towards a key pivot point in 157.94. The level has come into play as resistance in June, July and December of last year and provided a zone of resistance throughout September (on a closing basis).

The recent selloff has been characterised by two bearish engulfing candles, helping to spur on sellers. The 200 SMA is the next level of support at 156.64 if the pair has enough momentum to breach 157.94. In the event Support process too much to handle once again, 159.76.

EUR/JPY daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

GBP/JPY ‘double top’ limits further upside potential

On the weekly GBP/USD chart, a notable double top appears to be limiting a bullish continuation over the long-term. At 188.80 has proven to be too tough to crack with prices easing before potentially attempting another go.

GBP/USD weekly chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

GBP/USD exhibited very little movement considering we heard from the Bank of England, providing its monetary policy update alongside the release of its updated forecasts. At 188.80 it appears a long way away now that the pair had headed lower in recent sessions.

At 184.00 flat is the next level of support to keep in mind as it also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average. The MACD supports the continuation of bearish momentum after exhibiting a bearish crossover, and the RSI currently sits in the neutral zone – suggesting that any attempt to arrest this decline would have to be substantial.

GBP/USD daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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Trading the trend: long USD/JPY

USD/JPY is seeing a minor retracement lower which could be used to enter a long trade in the direction of this year’s uptrend. We would thus like to go long USD/JPY with a stop loss below ¥145.90 and an upside target at ¥152.00.

 

Written by: Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London
 
Publication date: 

Previous Arabica coffee trading outcome

In this week's "Trading the trend" video, Axel Rudolph reflects on his recent trades and talks about their current positions. He started by betting on the price of Arabica coffee to go up. He entered the trade when the price was around 186 and watched it climb to 194. However, things took a turn and the price went down, causing them to sell at his entry level.

Current New York cotton futures trading progress

Next, he moves on to his current trade in New York cotton futures. He entered at about 85.70 and are currently making a profit. To protect his gains, he raised the level at which he would sell if the price goes down, so he doesn't lose anything. He has set his sights on a target price of 90, which he sees as a strong resistance level based on previous market behavior.

This week's trading opportunity

For his trade this week, he plans to jump on the upward trend of the USD/JPY. He sees a temporary drop in the price as an opportunity to buy. He bases his decision on the difference in interest rates between the US and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan has a cautious approach, while the US is more optimistic. He believes the upward trend will continue in the upcoming days and weeks, particularly if the price breaks through recent highs between 148.80 and 18.90.

With all of this in mind, he suggests buying USD/JPY at its current price, and setting a level at which he would sell if the price drops further. He also set an upside target at around 152, meaning he expects the price to go up to that level. By carefully managing his trades and considering market trends, he aims to make successful trades and achieve profits.

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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