DAX (Germany 30)

[Caseynotes]

Will dax continue it's recent downtrend having given up all gains and returned to the area of consolidation it broke out of in October? 

 

4 H Chart.

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Dax is in uptrend 

 

On your chart it came back to previous support and bounced off it

[Guest oilfxpro]

there 

[Caseynotes]

My 4h chart as well as your own chart clearly shows dax completely reversed and broke back down to major support, where it goes from here who knows?

 

The important point is that no strategy designed for a bull trend will ever succeed in a downtrend so it is important to change your strategy to suit the prevailing market conditions, which in the case of dax has been downtrending for the first half of November.

 

But we have discussed this before as in, can any one single EA (or strategy) cope with up-trending and down-trending and ranging markets, and the answer is of course no.

[Guest oilfxpro]

I don't see a downtrend.

[Caseynotes]

Dax down this morning on a big 8 am bear bar having bounced off the 4 hour resistance level with RSI divergence. 

 

1 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Back up off support around 12856 having failed upward and reversed at 13211 on Wednesday. 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax stuck in a symmetrical triangle on the 4 hour chart. Also capped by resistance at 13210 and support at 12900.

 

German CPI data tomorrow.

 

[Caseynotes]

Triangle breakout in US session but stalled around resistance level 13211. Preliminary CPI data out today (no time).

Last month was 0.0%. Forecast today is 0.3%. The June 29th negative figure (-0.2%) in bottom chart resulted in a large drop for the dax. 

4 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Both dax and ftse broke down in the afternoon session seemly on breaking news the EU parliament see brexit talks as not progressing.

Dax triple topped intra-day before plunging. 

 

15 min chart.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Heavy 8 AM bear bar sends dax down to 12900 from 13065 on high volume. Struggling to find support and looking to go lower.

 

[Caseynotes]

Sitting at top of range, poised for breakout or reversal. Big data today, NFP 1:30 pm.

 

4 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax looking for support at 13111 while S&P hesitates at prior high 2664. I'm thinking the S&P will decide the direction for both?

 

1 hour charts.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Broken out of month long range to the upside and stalled at prior support turned resistance at 13333 yesterday. Did attempt a break late Asia session but pushed back, be interesting to see if it repeats that on the 8 am bar.

 

4 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Important day for the dax as price attempts to get back above the 100 ema on both the daily and 1 hour chart and secure the 38.2 Fib retracement level from that big move up during September - October.

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Can you add more value to your charts, by including price action and trading opportunities.Can you add a few more indicators?

 

In stock market technical analysis, support and resistance is a concept that the movement of the price of a security will tend to stop and reverse at certain predetermined price levels. These levels are denoted by multiple touches of price without a breakthrough of the level.Highly volatile instruments break through these levels regularly, only to respect these levels later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Oh dear, looks like dax is failing at the 100 ema, that's clearly an important level.

 

The lines on my charts are support and resistance levels, as well I will often include Fibonacci retracement levels if relevant because they can also act as support  and resistance levels.

 

Here is the code to make it easier for you,

 

Green dotted - hourly.

Yellow dotted - 4 hourly.

Orange line - daily.

Red line - weekly.

Dark red line - monthly.

 

I'm surprised you didn't link any of the many videos I have posted on drawing support and resistance levels over the last near two years.

As I say 'schoolboy level'.

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey  "Oh dear, looks like dax is failing at the 100 ema, that's clearly an important level.

 

The lines on my charts are support and resistance levels, as well I will often include Fibonacci retracement levels if relevant because they can also act as support  and resistance levels.

   

I'm surprised you didn't link any of the many videos I have posted on drawing support and resistance levels over the last near two years.

As I say 'schoolboy level'."

 

You may  make a good trading educator/teacher, but you won't  produce successful students, by providing little information on your charts.

 

Have you tried using 20, 40, 60 and 80 numbers on Fibonacci , they work equally as well.The Fibonacci Retracements Tool at StockCharts shows four common retracements: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. 

 

20= oversold i.e buy

40 -= cheap

60= buy trend begining

80 = high probability trend momentum.

 

Lagging moving averages acts a support /resistance?

 

[Caseynotes]

As I say, 'schoolboy level trolling'.

[Caseynotes]

As I said this morning this is an 'important day for the dax'. On the 1 hour chart price has been hammering away at the 100 ema and 4 hour resistance level (confluence) for 7 hours now and so far it's still holding.

 

Price closed below the 100 ma on the daily chart on the 29/12 and then put in a new low before returning to retest the 100, so now the time frames are out of alignment. For the last couple of days the daily and 1 hour price has been below their 100 ma while the 5 min and 1 min have been for the most part have been above. To get serious movement they need to align, that way all traders no matter their time frame agree on general direction. At the moment they are in conflict and have bought price to a standstill. The daily chart is identical now as it was this morning, it doesn't matter which way it breaks but when it does it should hopefully lead to a few days at least of trending.

 

Looks like breaking now as I am about to post this, will be interesting to see what the daily close looks like.

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey 

 

Thins kind of analysis  never gives any clear set up to trade.

 

I just buy or sell and laugh at this comical analysis   .I suppose we  real traders need entertainment .

 

Here I called a trade in advance and posted the profit.

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/Indices-and-Macro-Events/Profitable-100-ticks-weekly-Dow-Dax-daily-options-strategy/m-p/18530#M1857

 

 

[Caseynotes]

The particular point I was trying to make was that unless the time-frames are aligned any trade will always be fighting against the other time-frames which is precisely what you do and why you are needing a "100 tick tolerance due to dax volatility" to make 30 ticks. This is also why you keep changing your 'system', because there is no single system that will work. When market conditions change that needs to be recognised and catered for, that is a most important message and the reason for most of my posts, to highlight changing market conditions. When a chart has converted to trending it really doesn't matter about the 'set up', just get in at a sensible place. 

 

Continually going long in a downtrend or down channel or even in a range will never work and posting occasional and random results in an attempt to prove otherwise won't cut it. The other point I was trying to make was the essential need to precisely define the risk of a trade, a 100 tick tolerance is neither precise nor defined. It's fine to go long off the bottom of a clearly defined down channel or range because the risk (the stop level) is well defined, you can see it, it's right there, no need for 100 tick tolerance, if price reverses back up off it that's your entry and you are only risking 10 - 20 tick at most and the target is usually just as obvious. But when the 'support level' covers 170 ticks you are really just flipping a coin with a nonsensical risk reward ratio. 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casdey

 

You don't understand how I trade.

 

For  a 170 ticks range , my risk is limited to the cost of the option, it is usually about 30 ticks.If I take  1  position at -50 ticks   , the second is at -120  and third at -170.If I risk 90 ticks on 3 positions, which is less than 1% of my account, 80 %  of the time  I break even because if I get 60 ticks profit , it covers the loss  of  one of the positions and ends up in a profit. of 30.

 

I only trade one system and do not change from system to system, like amateurs do.My system is buy low  and buy more lower, sell for a profit. It will work 85 % of the time, I am happy to lose 15% of the time.

 

Continually going long in a down trend is a good strategy, if you are smart enough to manage risk.

 

You have a misunderstanding of down channels, down channels are tilted  ranging boxes.

 

If all this technical analysis was any good, it has become obsolete method of making consistent profits, because everybody is using it and edges are diminishing.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax races up having cleared resistance at the 100 and 200 MA's. Resistance ahead at the 23.6 Fib level and further ahead at the down trend line. Note the four perfect touches on the bottom of the enlarged pennant (or asymmetric triangle, call it what you like).  Some would have you believe MA's can't act as support and resistance and that you can ignore any bar that doesn't fit your bias, nonsense of coarse.

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

but most of this analysis has no proof of success in a live market .95% of the traders will buy your analysis and use it to become profitable and make huge profits.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

What??

[Caseynotes]

Continuing upward quickly this morning and has already reached the 2nd resistance level I wrote about in post further down. Now in pullback mode, if price breaks upward the next resistance is at 13350 which is the weekly resistance level and prior high from 19/12.

 

[Caseynotes]

The 'few days of trending' that was hoped for on Wednesday on the break or rejection of the 100 MA did materialise and both of the next resistance levels were also broken. Stalled now at the 13413 level which is a reflection of the out of hours Dow which has stalled at 25385.

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

I am looking for a trade .

 

Should I buy sell or do nothing?

 

[Caseynotes]

Why would you want to do anything in a sideways moving market? I showed you Wyckoff, did you not even look at it ? The objective of trading is to take advantage of the range expansion periods and stay clear of the range periods (unless they are big and you are using a specific range play strategy). This is basic stuff really and the lack of understanding explains why, a few months ago, you were trying to use an up trend strategy in a ranging and even in a down trend market (can't remember the version number of that one).