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DAX (Germany 30)


Caseynotes

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that is quite a violent swing. markets are really choppy right now, however it looks as though faith is being restored (slowly) and money is coming back into markets. I was actually trying to trade the dax (dummy account) and was caught by this move, so thankful I have a demo account to experiment with.

 

Its not been a great week for me with one stock crashing, I am currently penning some notes about that.


For me the indices are a bit too volatile to be trading but there is clearly opportunities with such 200pt swings.

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 Hi ,  CPI would not usually cause such a stir but the chatter for over a week was that this time it could be different given the drop in indices (long overdue a correction)  following the last NFP data which showed increasing wages (inflationary) so if the inflationary aspect was confirmed today everyone was expecting a further indices drop with a correlated US dollar gain (except USDJPY because Yen was where much of the money from Dow was going).

 

The reality was the expected drop followed by instant recovery suggesting the initial correction a week ago was enough which bodes well for indices in the near future.

 

Dax tends to be more lively than most but on this occasion kept pace with the Dow which also had a 200 tick drop and recovery while currencies remained more subdued with lower volatility as has been the case for over a year now, EURUSD dropped just 100 pip before recovery. May well see 'buy the dip' traders returning to Dow now the correction looks done which will also cause USDJPY to move sideways rather than continue it's downward path.

 

The long run up in indices this last year has been at the expense of currencies and that looks like continuing post correction so worth keeping an eye on them. Take a look at the monthly Dax chart and see those long run ups interdispersed with sharp corrections and that same pattern is played out on the lesser time frames as well so like all else it's a question of timing and keeping an eye on the chart and an ear to the ground. 

 

On all charts even the lesser time frames dax is a good respecter of moving averages so experiment with the chart you prefer and see if one is being exploited (see the 1 hour chart below with 100 ema in yellow and 200 in purple). 

 

GER30(£)Monthly.pngGER30(£)H1.png

 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Seems to be a continuation of the indices slide started Tuesday (Powell's first testimonial) and had follow through on the Asian overnight session as reported in the morning call. The Euro open tried to reverse the slide but then Dax tracked an identical move down in the Dow, both around 160 ticks not long after the London open this morning. That makes around 1000 tick total down for Dow since Tues.

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Hopefully the ECB rate decision and presser will give it a kick one way or the other. The problem being that it's likely to be the presser that has most influence and lasts about 45 minutes during which there can be a lot of whipsawing until a final direction is decided.

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Worth noting that today dax progressing very similar to yesterday. Holding a bull flag til late morning then dropping away to test support. Yesterday 3 hourly bars tested 12176, checking RSI (bar close) for divergence shows none on the hourly chart but get closer on a 15 min chart and divergence shows up very clearly.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)M15.png

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Strange behaviour, i was sure that dax should join the usa uptrend friday evening but after initially rally (NFP) then dax dropped and was like a dead fish rest of the evening (did pop a couple of points but normally it should have reach day high and beyond)

 

and its was not caused by the euro

 

maybe some hedgefunds are shorting fdax?

 

 

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Yes, I was waiting as well and was watching Dow also, was surprised dax didn't continue to the upside but after 2 pm dax just faded away. As did US 10 year treasury (immediately after me posting 'heading for 3%') so inevitability did usdjpy. Ho Hum. I wasn't watching futures, as you suggest worth doing a post mortum on.

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