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EUR/USD idea

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Tomorrow could decide it with lots of level 1 data coming out of EU and US and Dollar Basket at big support zone.

 

 

cal1.PNG

US Dollar Basket_20180102_12.51.png

 

 

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Forgot to mention that it's an NFP week as well, the most important data set of them all comes out on Friday. US PMI today at 3 pm and the minutes from the last  FOMC meeting released at 7 pm.

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clear short now with a 60 pip stop, if it does not work take a loss , if it works take a  profit

 

eur usd.jpg

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I have cut euro usd trade with 14 pip loss , the p/a and t/a  both failed on me.

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There  price rejected with double top  on eur usd  target 1.1965. Re-entered short

 

I don't trade fx  like this on technical basis, technical analysis is unreliable.

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Having retraced to the 23.6% Fib level now looks to retest the high. ADP non-farm- payroll today at 1:15 pm, may give a hint to the main NFP data release tomorrow.

 

 

EURUSD(£)H40401.png

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A look at the monthly chart is very interesting as well, the current monthly resistance level (1.20921) was support in 2012 which didn't break until 2014. Drawn as a zone would stretch back to 2008. 

 

 

EURUSD(£)Monthly0401.png

 

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Olixpro am I missing something, why did you sell eur usd that day? It was overall a uptrend so dip buying would sound more reasonable.

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 , no you are not missing anything, it was just another silly 'punt' against the trend with ridiculous risk. What happens is you spot a non existent pattern amongst the noise on a short-term time frame that completely ignores the long-term thrust, you draw a line that will trigger the trade and enter. Then you think about stop loss and see the prior high/low is 60 tick away so you say 'well that's trading accept it'. Ha.

 

This is not how counter trend traders work, they have a level where they expect price to reverse and as soon as price reverses at that level they enter, the stop is small, it's right there, they can practically reach down and touch it, it's usually just a few pip. If they are wrong they lose a few pip but if they are right the reward potential is huge, so they can be wrong 70% of the time and still be profitable.

 

That was not this trade, having got in at a level that seeming needed a 60 pip stop price immediately reversed against you, the bowels start to go loose, so then having put in a 60 pip stop you think err and bail out at minus 14.

 

This was actually the right thing to do after making a stupid entry, if a line was crossed to trigger a trade then if that line is crossed back over the validity of the trade is gone so just get out. So the 60 pip stop was fantasy, the proper stop was just behind the 'important' level that triggered the trade which wasn't actually important at all, not to any other trader on any time frame.

 

 

 

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Situation

 

I sold it because the price action twice showed a rejection and the immediate trend line  was broken.Once again it proves technical analysis  and price action does produce profit.

 

The other reason was unfulfilled emotions, the pretenders who don't trade always claim there is no psychology involved in trading, I had unfulfilled emotions to short sell eur/usd.

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Psychology-Winning-Mindset/td-p/18650

 

On casey's advice I started using lagging indicators 

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/New-to-IG-Community/Introduce-yourself-here-and-make-your-first-Community-post/m-p/15770#M327

 

Then I should have ignored all t/a , because it works in hindsight after the event.Now you guys can all be clever about it  after the event.I know all about hindsight analysis  and hindsight education.The trading forums are full of hindsight analysts.

 

Why hindsight trading is so easy compared to real-time trading

 

http://optimusfutures.com/tradeblog/archives/problem-of-hindsight-trading/

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/t2w-feedback-announcements/223740-ban-all-hindsight-traders.html

 

 

 

 

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Casey

 

Hindsight analysis is very easy, real traders when they see an opportunity, they just place the trade.

 

Forum ***** on trade2win forum shows hindsight results, he is very profitable with hindsight results after the trades.

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/223330-hindsight-dax-lulz.html

 

On forums you get pretenders, I am a trader on a live account.Real trading involves making decisions, I made and I lost.

 

BTW my account is up 200% this week so far  , trading the indices.

 

 

trader scammer.gif

 

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Forex gurus 

 

NFP  is out 

 

Do I buy or sell or we just sing technical analysis?

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This is about fundamental analysis not technical, it's an easy mistake to make. The data is mixed and taken as a whole is fairly neutral for price which is why there was a brief spike then a return to as was.

 

for3.PNG

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The euro usd is bullish based on latest price action

 

I have shorted the dax in place of trading eur us

 

It has made 2 very bullish up bars , so it is a buy until it breaks 11900

 

euro pa.jpgeuro pa2.jpg

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