Hindsight technical analysis and trading

[Guest oilfxpro]

How to spot the hindsight trades ?

 

1)They post hindsight set ups and results  , after the event .There is no evidence it can be traded  for consistent profit by another person .The method to generate real trading profit is nonexistent and  is not disclosed.

 

2) They only sing about technical set ups, they never post proof of success or live trades in progress. All this is similar to dumb singing, and without any proof of pudding/profitable trading is useless.Just dumb singing does not make money.Traders do not have time to waste reading this dumb singing on technical analysis.

 

 

The technical analysis posted has no clear direction or analysis of a trade, one that another trader can benefit from.It is a waste of the reader's time.

 

A clear example of a live trade posted is here

 

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Method-using-daily-and-weekly-options-to-trade-free-anylysis/m-p/18708#M997

 

A clear example of hindsight trades is posted by  teaching guru here

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/stocks/123944-how-make-money-trading-markets-344.html#post3002236

 

The time of posting, the information on the charts show the time and the wording of the result is evidence.The best thing is avoid hindsight analysts and don't waste time on them, the forums are full of them.

 

 

Most traders lose money because they are taught how to  use hindsight technical analysis.The trading educators can get clever after the event.

 

Ignore the hindsight  trading analysis and gurus .

 

 

 Where one "could have" and "should have" placed a trade,  it is too late to trade it.Can't make money with hindsight systems.

 

 

hindsight review click to read

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

And yet here I showed how TA provides 'foresight' only just yesterday, the same chart before and after, using just 2 moving averages, Fib levels and support and resistance with price action. 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

I have not seen one clear advance trade from you, if it tests or retests, it is of no use unless I have a clear trade.

I am bored , I am making real money, good trading is boring  .I can also do all this singing and dancing without trading.My trades are placed and making money, real money.

 

 

 

We can carry on with all this singing and dancing for the lulz.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

But I don't actually have anything to prove, instead of spending time boasting and making questionable claims I am happy to watch the charts waiting for an opportunity, when one comes along I will take it, simple. Those who boast put themselves under pressure to try and substantiate them and when they find they can't they then start trolling instead, don't they.

[Guest oilfxpro]

I admitted many losses,  but my profits are far greater, so need to be afraid/fear losses.If you post in advance, we can see you are using this technical analysis, if you don't post in advance,  if you don't have confidence in your own technical analysis , how can your readers?

 

I have a very professional trading mindset, I am a good *****  and my losing trades  give me pride  .This is because I know I did the right thing, and I lost gracefully.

 

Sounds like a analyst teacher suffering psychological issues with losses.

[Caseynotes]

You posted some trades for a couple of weeks until your 'long only' system went off the rails when dax started ranging, was it that that caused you to start crashing into other unrelated threads trying to derail them by posting non-related gibberish and insulting memes? 

[Guest oilfxpro]

All my longs system overall makes money, the winners were greater than losing trades, that is not the why I post memes.I am too mature to do that.You know me I just post as it is .

 

If you post some trades , you can just not post the results, we can work it out.

[Caseynotes]

Fine, so let me explain what I am doing when I post the charts that seem to infuriate you so, look at the example further down in this thread. The eurusd had hit resistance and was pulling back but the pullback faded at the 4 hour support level and the 23.6% Fib level (confluence). Buyers were overwhelming sellers, where might there be more sellers? Higher up and certainly at the resistance level at the prior high. The price action showed that the auction at the support/Fib level was over. The direction of the trade was clear and in line with large time-frame momentum, the risk (stop loss) level was obvious and close by. All you needed to do was to get in. Yes, more sellers may step in but unlikely, why sell low against support? No, their better bet was to sell either well before or well after but not just after the pullback had reversed for price to continue in the direction of the trend, sell high not low, they will be waiting up at the prior high.

 

All you needed to know was there on that chart, my "now looks to retest the high" was so obvious I felt a bit embarrassed to mention it. Whether you entered there on that chart or shifted down time frames to enter on a micro pullback a bit later didn't matter. 

 

You once said I should make my charts clearer and perhaps I should, but there was the set up, and entry, and stop level and target. Posted in advance.

 

Edited to include the chart.

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

IMHO  this is all too complicated

 

Here is simple analysis  using the free indicator you knocked and laughed at.

 

It is at bottom of post here

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/224896-20-30-profitable-dow-dax-weekly-100-ticks-profit.html#post2936040

 

a

 

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey 

 

All this complex ta  is why most traders lose.

 

Keep it simple stupid

 

Dr Van Tharp “I can answer that question on a number of levels. At the most basic level, people must trade by processing information. Unfortunately, we’re not very efficient information processors. We have a lot of biases that enter into trading decisions. I’ve documented 25 of them in my home study program. However, I think most of those biases can be summarized by realizing that trading/investing are very simple processes and we human beings try to make it into something much more complex. Those biases are all about adding complexity to the world”.

 

https://profitabletraders.wordpress.com/k-i-s-s-keep-trading-simple-stupid/

[Caseynotes]

There is nothing complex about it. It is simple chart reading with a basic understanding of how the auction actually works, has always worked. Just because you can't understand it is irrelevant. So long as you keep on attacking technical analysis in general and everyone who posts TA and treat it as some sort of game, then uses TA in their own trading, will keep me repeatedly showing you up as someone who obviously has no understanding of how a market works. And because you have no understanding is precisely why you can't back up any of your wild claims and resort to trolling, childish gibbering and insulting memes. School boy trolling won't make you right. Your claims can't be taken seriously because you can't be taken seriously.

[Guest oilfxpro]

Think outside the box  and you will see it is complex!

[Caseynotes]

That is very funny, simple logic becomes complex if you view it from an upside down, inside out perspective. No wonder you can't understand it and simply denigrate it instead.

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey 

 

At least the little foresight technical analysis I post in advance I  can actually make money with it.There is no evidence that your subjective, after event  and biased technical analysis makes any money.

 

Look at your hindsight advice , claims of supposed trades and set ups on eurusd and hindsight comments about my eur usd trade.I am still looking to be interested in reading concise NO BS   analysis, something that can be traded.

 

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/270-profit-after-restart/m-p/18769#M1007

 

I can go to IG's free analysis, at least it is usable  and good.

 

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/General-Trading-Strategy/Method-using-daily-and-weekly-options-to-trade-free-anylysis/m-p/18703#M996

[Situation]

I agree actually. The eur usd chart followed with 'looks like it will retest highs' is not an advance trade idea. Did you actually take the trade? Also it doesn't help someone who wants to learn trading. An entry, exit and target point would be helpful with that chart. We all know that not all trades work out so there's no harm in being wrong.

 

Caseynotes, I'm sorry if you feel embarrassed to mention the trade. However not all people in the community are experienced traders or analysts. You may have to explain in a bit more detail and make it obvious as we are all learning from each other and each person has a different outlook to the economy.

[Caseynotes]

Hi , I understand chart reading can take some time to learn but learn you must, price is the first and foremost indicator and is telling you what it is doing, I thought the laboured description was pretty good as well but the chart said it all. When I said price "looks to test the high" that's what I meant, that was the target. The stop level was obvious too (just behind the support/Fib level that caused the pullback to fail). People get hung up about the entry level which is actually the least of your worries. Once the power of the pullback has faded and price has reversed at a major level to continue the trend and their are no more sellers then the entry point doesn't matter, just get in. The important number is your stop level and that it is within your general trading strategy.

 

The key to these events is judging when is the auction over because that is when you will see price move from one level to the next. Sellers going into that level where hoping price would break down through so they would have sold high to buy back low but that didn't happen. Price reversed against them at that level because there were not enough of them, there was no point then in more sellers joining, they would wait and sell at a higher price later. Not only that but the sellers who where already in were buying to get out of the short contracts.

 

Learn how to read a chart and be very wary of anyone who shouts TA and indicators don't work and then posts charts that looks like this.

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

All i see on this chart is support resistance, very simple t/a , it works on indices All I say is buy supports with options , it works >  65% of the time, an edge.I trade it and have confidence to call these trades in advance.

 

There is no evidence, that any other form of technical analysis works more than 35% of the time.Forget about the salesman trying to sell books, and provides subjective marketing evidence on chart patterns.

[Caseynotes]

Great fun reading your recent posts, was that a mistake when you started risking 10% of your account per trade? It's so easy to miss stuff when you're mucking around on demo. One query though, you started pumping this dow dax options strategy nearly 2 years ago, how come your account has only £1000 in it?

[Guest oilfxpro]

This is a topic on technical analysis.

 

All your hindsight technical analysis and comments  should be directed at proving , why t/a makes money.Why you don't post trades in advance ?Why are you not a billionaire yet?I  can see why!

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/foyer/165180-compounding-billionaires-t2w.html

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

What sort of gibberish nonsense is this, you post an overlay that pretends to rationalise what is a sideways chart that is so over burdened with you own TA as to be unreadable. A simple range play strategy would suffice. 

 

Overlay this one then, where a single trade win nearly amounts to your total account size. This shows IG's 'account history' app placed on the chart and was posted on the day to counter moronic routine trolling. This is real TA. The bottom chart shows moronic TA (just for reference).

 

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Everything I posted on your technical analysis chart is debunked with rebuttals.Every video I  posted debunked t/a.A healthy discussion requires criticism, but for you it is trolling.You like to have everybody believe in your technical analysis beliefs and analysis, but you can kid the new traders but the pros will laugh at your analysis.

What has any moving average bounce or rejection got to do with supply demand due to absence of buyers and sellers and lack of liquidity?Nothing.All this analysis is in hindsight , like notice the 8 o'clock bar, the chart is taken after 10 am, so this is hindsight analysis. All this singing  about technical analysis does not make money.We are here to make money.

 

 

Notice the 8:00 am bar (vertical red line) breaks the 100 ema and then the 200 ema on the next bar, that tells us the price action is turning bearish and we wouldn't wont to be going long would we. Price then raced down confirming our bearish bias before returning to retest the 100 ema at the second vertical red line (9:30) and giving us a great entry for a short.

 

Why go short when there is a buying opportunity and one can make 500 ticks?Here is the chart to show  that your t/a analysis needs polishing up.Try higher time frames it may work .

 

In foresight if you had bought the dip , you could , you would have , you might have  made some serious real money.

 

Profitable Buffet buy the dip strategy

 

https://profitabletraders.wordpress.com/buffet-buy-the-dip-strategy/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

I know all the hindsight gurus who teach through books and courses.

 

hindsight books read more

 

How do we know tradecity is not just another hindsight education site?

 

https://www.tradeciety.com/pricing/

 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing

 

Hindsight is 20/20. This is a saying which means that "It's easy to know the right thing to do after something has happened, but it's hard to predict the future." Let me explain why this phrase has that meaning. First, "hindsight" means "thinking about things after they've happened".

[Guest oilfxpro]

Interesting reading

 

The problem with most educators...is that they often disguise hindsight analysis as actual real live execution

 

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/market-charlatans.243796/#post-3737433

 

Do trading education scammers (99.99% of the "industry") ever feel guilty?

 

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/do-trading-education-scammers-99-99-of-the-industry-ever-feel-guilty.312818/