GBPAUD

[Mercury]

I've been tracking this cross down ever since I prematurely exited a great Short.  I prefer not to trade these non USD markets as my personal view is that the USD is a better cross to take with most other currencies but when the derivative crosses get to major turning point then they get interesting for me.

 

The big picture (monthly/weekly) is not clear to me, except that this cross has come down off 30000 in a strong bear move in 2 parts and then retraced in an A-B-C to Aug 2015 highs only to drop again.  I'm sot sure if the market is now in another bear move or something more complex but certainly the Bear has been in charge since Aug 2015.

 

Now the market has hit strong support and either an EW 1-3 or A-B-C and there is strong Pos Mom Div on the Daily but not the Weekly charts.  This suggests a Wave 3-4 retrace at least.

 

On the Hourly we have had an ending Triangle break after a W5 termination off that strong resistance.  The Triangle is not perfect but valid I think, when taken with everything else.  There is also strong Pos Mom Div on the hourly now and a retrace to the Triangle (which is also small 38% fib and short term support/resistance) followed by a bounce away would confirm a rally is on for me and it could run all the way to the upper Daily Tramline, which is well over 1000 points!

 

I'll be looking to go long on any touch in the area of the triangle line.  Anyone looking at this and if so what do you see?

 



[Guest Philstrading]

Hi, I'll just share my analysis with you to give a perspective on the pair...

On weekly it broke bearish and is currently reacting to weekly s/r around 18,300 or so...

 

On the monthly we are uptrending and the level has acted as resistance in the past also. The level clusters with 50% and also 78% if u care to use that in clusters

...

Apologies for formatting (first post)

There are 2 possible reactionary levels I see on the daily, one where price is at the moment and one slightly above around 18800.

  

Coming down the timeframes to look at the 4hrly i see the support and a new higher high. Essentially if uptrending I would lean toward a retest of the 18500 level which is showing as 4hrly S/R perhaps looking intraday toward18800 level.

The hourly is slightly messier, but shows that it could retest to the 18600 area.

For this pair intraday I'm probably just looking to see what price does for now, as it may consolidate around its current level perhaps coming down to 18600 or so or pullback and conitnue to trend up . The current level is also at the daily oblique resistance trendline shown in red in next chart which also has historical significance, I might expect some pullback at this level but will certainly be stalking the pair and noting a break of the trendlines. Some LTF intraday opportunities for sure, with medium to higher timeframes leaning to a possible bullish break if the medium term timeframes push through the current resistance levels indicated. Arguably the daily trend could be considered broken but its current chanel is yet to be broken out of on the daily. 

Looking for bullish opportuinities or if failing to break bearish below 18300.

Hope that helps...

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Great charts but watch out for Brexit interventions and polls. They can easily throw everthing up-side-down day to day.

[Mercury]

HI Philstrading,

 

I have been tracking, but not trading, this cross for some time but missed the Triangle break and kiss back because it was in the early hours UK time and I wasn't confident enough to leave a stop in order in play.  Then I hoped for another quick kiss back but the market rallied away, c'est la vie I guess...  Just now I am seeing a retrace in action and am targeting a retrace to near the Fib 50% before the rally resumes.  I'd prefer the 62% but this would negate the move altogether.  A retrace fits with my other analysis of GBP and AUD vs USD so I'm watching and waiting for the price to pull back to the right level before venturing a Long.

 



[Mercury]

That retrace I was tracking could be about to arrive.  Once GBPUSD turns this one could drop a good 500 points

 



[Mercury]

Very fast and strong run up for this pair but is it now the end of the road?

 



[Guest Condor]

I see what you mean  I'm looking at the 4H and shows Mom Div.  to me.  Looks like it could crack and drop.  I'll start tracking as you've pointed out. C

[Mercury]

Be patient   It's a tricky market this, watch the respective crosses with the USD.  I'd want to see a confirmed break down before going in. 

[Guest Condor]

agree  seems to me unclear where it could go - i'm staying out.   C

[Mercury]

I've been tracking this one for quite a while and it never so much as twitched on its journey up to the top of the Daily chart channel, I guess because the respective USD crosses are stronger.  Still it does now look like there might be a twitch with the upper tramline touched and price repulsed.  There is also a possible ending Triangle that has just been breached with a small curl back so far and a **** of a lot of Neg Mom Div about on all timeframes.

 

Time for a cheeky short?

 



[Caseynotes]

Interesting trade idea from scorpionfx on GBPAUD. Very much a cup and handle pattern so may want to wait for a break of horizontal resistance.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

A reminder of this setting up, mentioned last week (see previous post).

 

http://www.newtraderu.com/2012/08/20/why-the-cup-handle-chart-pattern-works/

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Fridays 16:00 hourly bar closed above the cup and handle resistance level 17998, making steady progress since.

 

[Guest PandaFace]

That break out about ~18000 seems to be going well but looking at the second in an attempt of a pull back. First break of the 20 ema on the 1H but near bounce from the 50. Profit takers after the EU negotiations news?

[Caseynotes]

The resistance looks technical, coinciding very precisely with the previous support level from April 2016. Will be interesting to see if price can overcome it.

 

Weekly chart.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Still attacking the 18300 resistance, looking to the BoE policy statement today at 12:00 for a leg up.

 

 

[Guest PandaFace]

Unemployment figures from AUS didn’t help either then.

[Caseynotes]

Fun day, got a good boost off the Aus job numbers and UK retail sales this morning and a 80 point initial lift on the BoE rate decision taking it to 18400 and then immediately took it off again. So still tangled around the 18300 though expectations remain for a May rate rise so still cause for optimism. 

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Looking to continue on it's way, from a technical perspective not much standing in it's way.

 

[Caseynotes]

Updating this thread, so we have been tracking this since before the break out past 18,000 in mid March, the quick run up to 18,300 got caught up at prior support turned resistance level and it has been running sideways since. IG made this pair the 'Trade of the Week' long on Monday so that has hampered it's progress :smileysurprised:  but is coiling nicely and still expecting further upside.