USD/yen

[Guest 100k]

what you guys think about the pair?

[Caseynotes]

HI ,  Got snagged at the 110,00 round number and 50% retracement of the down move but the dollar basket remains strong and price is comfortably above the 38.2% as well as the 100 day MA. As the Fib levels seem significant I would stick with them so after a daily close above 110,00 the first target should be 110,86 (61.8%) that was also a level of support previously and the 2nd target 112,33 (76.4%) and also a level of previous support.

 

 

[Guest EA-trader]

Still a nice uptrend/reversal  line intact, accept to lose money , the trend is your friend until it bends., it could reverse, but read about eurgbp thread and will find clue.

 

FSA may object advice giving.

[Guest EA-trader]

I had a bet , bought 10 p a point, with a 200 pip stop.

 

Let us se

[Caseynotes]

Ha yes, the problem being a 200 point stop at £10/point is £2000 but you only have a £1000 live account remember, so this must be going on your celebrated £1,000,000 demo account.

 

Why would you want a 200 point stop, what significant level is that? A 125 point stop at 10848 (38.2 Fib) would be conservative but 200?

 

Resistance at 110 00 has not yet been broken to signal entry, buying directly into resistance doesn't work, once a break is clear that prior resistance is now support so the stop goes below. 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Oh wait, you are talking pennies per point, sorry, my mistake.

[Guest EA-trader]

analysis paralysis , 

 

Posting 20 charts a day, never doing any trades or calling them in advance, at least I had a punt.Most traders can't handle putting on a live trade, they are waiting for certainty and confirmation, from t/a bs, that the trade is a guaranteed success, you are one of these traders.

 

There is no certainty in trading, so Casey just stay on forums and keep posting t/a charts.Oh I forgot  u need to go to specsavers, you missed the trend line break, a new set of specs  would have got you into a trade much lower, when trend line broke.I forgot you have not learnt trend line breaks yet.

 

Now there is an un uptrend line,you missed that as well, specsavers would have been cheaper, i forgot you haven't learnt this yet.

 

Actually this set up is quite a nice high probability set up, Casey you would not know , would you?Get a refund on the price action course you bought. from charlatans.

 

hope you can take your own banter , like a man.

 

An option strategy is to buy the 10900 calls and sell higher calls, oh option strategies failed, only you would not know how to make money from it.

 

For me it is a buy.

 

keep waiting and posting charts, those who can do,those who can't preach.

[Caseynotes]

You finally took a punt in the middle of an up trend with a 200 point stop ha ha ha. You are better at baiting rather than trading.

 

The up trend is half over, you are so late. Oh look, lets go back to our uptrend long only options strategy oh wait, lets hope it's not about to run straight into consolidation and fail like it did last time, ha ha ha.

 

Oh dear, 10 years of failure and still doesn't understand market cycles.

[Guest EA-trader]

Intraday scalping?Price action intraday trading.

 

All your strategies are destined to fail, because 99% of day traders lose.My new Ea tests out all price action charlatans.It tests every candle formation and is designed to catch out fake price action gurus. Better start looking for another scheme.

[Caseynotes]

You have been searching for the grail ea for 10 years and failed, thankfully you have the pension to live off because you certainly don't make money trading.

[Guest EA-trader]

No I just listen to forum gurus like you, then input the guru wisdom into the EA, then the EA also fails.

[JamesIG]

The original poster and topic of this thread may be interested in the client position we are seeing as reported on by DFX. It's looking like trade sentiment is split pretty evenly, but with a slight skew towards net long (but only by 6% or so!). 

[Caseynotes]

US Treasuries starting to have second thoughts.

 

 

 

[Guest EA-trader]

Yes baby !

 

It is moving, it is a buy for me.Very nice set up.

 

I had a bet , bought 10 pence a point, with a 200 pip stop.

[DDR]

Hello everyone, this pair looks like it reaching a decision point soon.

I'm wondering if it will turn at the descending trend line or break upward  (*)

 

One to watch imho

 

PS With IG clients what are the holding costs for this pair as a CFD short position?

EG Daily interest only or are there other related costs ?

 

Thank you

[Caseynotes]

Lesson on 'How Not to Trade'. ea-trader bought this pair several weeks ago and the trade is now well and truly underwater and going nowhere. 

He has never actually called a trade before and usually only deals in vagaries and here we can see why.

 

Mistake 1: Not looking at the bigger picture and jumping aboard a trend too late.

 

Mistake 2: The massive stop just means a massive loss, once the reason for the trade is cancelled out so too should the trade be, there is no point in following a trade down in a death spiral.

 

Mistake 3: Because of the massive stop the bet size must be proportionally so minuscule as to be meaningless but of course ea doesn't really trade anyway and only ever deals in mini lots anyway.

 

Not brave enough to bet in size, needs a massive safety net (stop) and too scared to get in early are traits that will guarantee failure.

 

 

 

   

[Guest EA-trader]

Captain Hindsight 

 

Let me enlighten you about currency trading .The USDJPY is the worst pair to trade.The reason for  this  is 

 

The Japanese economy is almost 50% correlated to US economy and almost 50% of yen reserves are  in dollars.The  USDJPY is choppies pair, I would not trade it in reality.The euro and cable are the main alternatives to dollar, this is why both have dropped 1000  pips against the dollar.This is why professionals don't trade it.

 

It is left for amateurs I hope this will improve your standards Casey from nursery level trading,

 

As regards IG's longs/shorts ratio, it is totally useless information for professionals.Herd following the herd blindly, most of that herd is amateurs and retail traders, 95% of them lose.

 

There wise men say few words.

[Caseynotes]

You are not capable of enlightening anyone and never have been. Your record of failure is well documented on many forums over many years.

 

If usdjpy is the worst pair to trade why did you trade it? 'Professionals don't trade it' of course they do, you just make this nonsense up as you go along.

 

Everything in your last post is just your usual deflection because you are unable to answer the points. This is all you ever do. Get called out on your bs so ignore it and deflect attention on to something else.

[Guest EA-trader]

Casey 

 

This thread  is an example of the people suffering from the Dunning Kruger effect.Why would a professional put "more than beer money"  on USDJPY?

 

It is also an example of the failure of technical analysis, that is why you only do analysis in hindsight.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

[Caseynotes]

What a joke.

[JamesIG]

---

 wrote:

 

PS With IG clients what are the holding costs for this pair as a CFD short position?

EG Daily interest only or are there other related costs ?

 

---

 - there is a Tom Next rate on this of -0.79/0.54 which means to short this will result in a charge of 0.79 x your trade size. Works on a T+3 basis so 3 days charge on Wednesday, but as normal on the Friday with a one day, and with no charges on the weekend. 

[DDR]

The YEN is rejecting the upper trend line (now trading at 109.46) and that over the next few weeks can high light a flight out of the US dollar. How fundamentally I don't know or fully understand but as far as price action goes a rejection is taking place.

Below is the weekly chart I posted 2 weeks ago.

James is that .79 cents per day interest for a short position ? on YEN