Jump to content

NFP 3 Main Numbers


Recommended Posts

Contradiction in the NFP number and Unemployment rate often cause whipsawing. The 3 main numbers to consider in the data release are;

NFP expected 200K

Unemployment Rate expected to decrease from 5.0% to 4.9%

Average Hourly Earnings expected to increase from 2.3% to 2.4%

 

Algos and humans alike usually read them in that order and respond accordingly in that order, If there is contradiction and unexpected numbers there will be whipsawing but the figure that currently sets the longer time frame tone is Average Hourly Earning as this has greater influence on the likelyhood or not of Interest Rate hikes.

 

The trick as always is to stay out of any whipsaw and then look to join a controlled move to a new price level so wait for the bars to return to a more normal size.

Look for a spike and then channel continuation and join the channel, or a spike and then pullback then continuation and join after the pullback.

 

 

 

Link to comment

Does anyone have any idea what to look for with NFP anymore?  I mean is a strong number set good for stock indices or bad because CBs will be less accomodative in policy?  Is a bad number showing an economy slowing and therefore bad for stocks?  In any case the NFP can't go on raising 200k+ jobs every month right?  At some point the economy must get to as fully employed a level as it is going to be right?  At which point NFP becomes not at all important or perhaps more so for an impending contraction?

 

This is the danger of becoming locked into received wisdom on so-called fundamentals.  It can be fine for a period of time but then the market enters a new phase and the fundamentals start to throw off mixed signals, like now maybe?  In an environment where one can't decide whether a strong number from NFP is good or bad the only sensible course of action is as  is suggesting, stay the **** out until the post NFP trend becomes clear.

Link to comment

I love the big data releases, not because I want to predict, but because they often give an excellent opportunity to react. If the large institutions decide they need to reposition they can create trends lasting many hours if not days as they incrementally move price to a new 'fair value area' (remember, they can't just chuck in a monster order in one go).

 

Trying to play the actual data release is death (no matter what some gurus tell you). Everything is against you;

the horrendous increase in the spread,

the horrendous whipsawing,

the horrendous slippage,

all mean that even if you are right you will be wrong.

 

However, it is definitely worth adding your guess for the chance of winning a new IG Community badge. See NFP guesses thread.

 

 

Link to comment

Confusion good!  It breeds uncertainty and that brings out the Bear...

 

Could it be bad news (i.e. lower NFP data) is finally bad news for stocks?  Probably speaking too soon but still the initial reaction is bearish.

Link to comment
  • 8 months later...

NFP today serves up traders nightmare, great jobs figure gives spike in one direction then poor average earnings figure gives spike in opposite direction (even algos read the data sequentially), so both bulls and bears get entries triggered then immediately stopped out.

Average earnings figure is more closely linked to prospect of rate rises so could see dollar weakness into the weekend but watch out for end of week covering to close out positions bring every thing back to where it started.

 

030217USD (DFB).png

 

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Gold Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend Mode - Impulse Structure - Impulse wave Position -Wave A of (4) Direction - Wave A of (4) is still in progress Details - 1st Scenario - Gold now favors the current dip to continue as part of wave (4) in a zigzag structure.  2nd Scenario -  It may be wave 4 turning into an expanding flat with a dip below the current wave 4 low. If after the current bearish impulse below wave 4 low, the price reacts with a bullish impulse, then this scenario will be favored.  The 1st scenario will be preferred if the next rally is corrective. The 1st has a lower price forecast than the 2nd. Gold is currently experiencing a pullback from a fresh all-time high. However, the year-long and all-time bullish cycle remains intact. Buyers will therefore look for the next opportunity to buy the dip, anticipating that the uptrend will continue. Identifying when the dip is over is crucial. This blog post aims to analyze that. On the daily timeframe, the current bullish impulse trend emerged from the 1616 low of September 2022, marking the start of the supercycle degree 4th wave of a multi-decade impulse wave. Consequently, the supercycle 5th wave is far from completion as it has not even yet completed the 3rd sub-wave of its 3rd sub-wave, i.e., intermediate wave (3) of primary wave 3 (circled in blue). The current pullback is expected to be wave (4) of the primary degree.   On the H4 chart, wave (4) is completing its first wave—wave A—as an impulse. It is expected to correct upwards in wave B before dropping further to form a zigzag, at least into the 38.2-50% retracement zone at 2256-2199. After wave (4), the price could ascend again in wave (5). However, there can be alternative scenarios that may unfold. The best among them is a running flat structure for wave 4 of (3). The current impulse could complete a 3-3-5 structure for wave 4 below its current low if the response afterward is a bullish impulse. In summary, gold is in a pullback that could reach 2256-2199 before resuming its upward movement to continue the all-time bullish cycle to a new high. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!
    • Pepe Coin's rise to prominence serves as a fascinating example of the influence of community and hype in the cryptocurrency realm. Despite its creators acknowledging that PEPE holds no inherent value or profit potential, the coin's market value soared past $1 billion following its listing on Binance and Coinbase International Exchange. This surge underscores the significant impact of excitement and speculation in the crypto world. The Power of Community-Driven Initiatives PEPE's success highlights the power of community-driven initiatives in the crypto industry. Analysts cautiously predict that PEPE could potentially reach $0.000078 by 2030, although such projections are speculative and contingent on market conditions. Competition in the Meme Coin Space The rivalry between Pepe coin and Shiba Inu (SHIB) is heating up as new meme coins emerge. PEPE is currently trading at $0.00001424, boasting a 3.40% increase in value over the past day. Its weekly and annual performance is also promising, with gains of 32% and 109%, respectively. Analyzing PEPE's Price Trends Pepe Coin has been May's standout performer, experiencing a continuous rally in recent days. While it's stepping down from its recent all-time high of $0.00001535, its current value of $0.00001436 places it among the top 20 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap. PEPE's trading volume of $4.06 billion ranks it 7th among the highest transactioned cryptos. The Ups and Downs of PEPE Since its launch, PEPE has seen fluctuations but has never dipped to its initial value. After an initial surge followed by a decline, PEPE rose again, setting a new all-time high three times higher than before. This pattern seems to be repeating itself. Conclusion Pepe Coin's journey exemplifies how community enthusiasm can drive the value of cryptocurrencies, even in the absence of inherent value. As the competition between meme coins intensifies, PEPE's story serves as a testament to the power of community-driven tokens in shaping the crypto landscape.
    • While platforms like Thetanuts Finance, Badger DAO, and Opyn provide intriguing features and opportunities, it's crucial for users to approach these advanced financial tools with a clear understanding of the risks involved. Nevertheless, i gave the Project a look and they seem to have their goal set and have made some reputable partnerships. I would say "with their recent listing on a tier 1 CEX like Bitget, If they continue on this path, they are a definitely worth keeping an eye on"...
×
×
  • Create New...
us