Jump to content

Let's do some technical on the GBPJPY

Recommended Posts

Hi guys, 

Today my attention went on the GBPJPY where I've noticed a near miss to the major quarter 150.000 forming a triple top at the completion of a butterfly pattern.

I'm expecting to see the price to break under the 147.121 level aiming for the next major quarter 140.000. A good set-up for very patient people on this trade could be to go short at the breakout of the 147.121 support level aiming the 141.000 level for an amazing 600 pips trade ;) 

164401722_gbpjpybutterfly.thumb.png.018e0bf801ef228658e15da98bf4965e.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

While I'm waiting for my critical turn trades to work out (or not...).  I am belatedly turning my attention to a market I used to follow but rarely traded so kinda stopped analysing so I could focus.  Nevertheless I thing there is some symmetry on this pair with my preferred USDJPY.  I cannot really tell which way GBPJPY will run short term, although the prognosis near term looks like a rally.  However the one thing that jumps out on both pairs is something everyone knows but may not be keeping top of mind, the Yen is way, way too strong and has been for a long long time.  A big part of Abeneomics is to devalue the Yen to boost trade but all that has happened is consolidation, so far...

Looking at the big picture monthly charts you can see where I am going with this.  I believe the bottom has been reached and we are on for a massive rally against the Yen in due course.  This will be driven more by USD strength and so I am more confident of a USDJPY Long than on GBPJPY because GBP is surely going to get hammered vs USD as well, just maybe not as much.

If you look at the weekly GBPJPY chart you can see price has been in a nice wide channel since the infamous, still unexplained, GBP flash crash.  It looks to have turned back up recently with some positive indicators.  I can see this channel playing out as a pre rally consolidation OR a temporary breakout down to complete a retrace prior to a major rally but can't get a firm, trade-worthy, handle on it.

If I look at USDJPY however I do have a road map (see also my post on this pair).  In brief thought, USDJPY has been tracking stock moves (roughly) and I expect this to continue short term with a completion of the up-sloping channel rally and then a retrace to retest the Triangle breakout zone, maybe back to the Fib 50% (10,880 area) before the USD rally kicks in big time across the board.

  GBPJPY-Monthly_011118.thumb.png.086d34bc2b7d1a59144bbe2ec8ee8127.pngUSDJPY-Monthly_011118.thumb.png.1497b963fd5160bd1dd9445234a49fee.pngGBPJPY-Weekly_011118.thumb.png.f66ac8a4ce878dec829a4b77513bec9f.pngUSDJPY-Daily_011118.thumb.png.0480a440a082defdb7637f31aea27d68.png

Share this post


Link to post

Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      5,852
    • Total Posts
      25,307
    • Total Members
      31,475
    Newest Member
    Ddchart
    Joined 12/12/18 07:05
  • Our picks

    • The pattern continues - APAC brief 12 Dec
      The pattern continues: Wall Street indices have been swinging about madly again. The pattern continues: an open, a rally or fall, then a retracement or recovery. Today we’ve had an open, a rally, then retracement, then a recovery again. There were stories behind this price-action. Everything that happened overnight appeared perfectly explicable. One wonders though if the swings in trading activity are being overly attributed to headlines. Or perhaps it’s the case that higher volatility and sensitive nerves are leading to accentuated moves. Whatever the cause, fundamentally, the bears still have control of the equity market. There is a softer intensity to the selling on Wall Street this week. However, with the extremeness of last week’s moves having not been unwound yet, what we are seeing is sellers piling in on top of sellers, bit by bit.

      ASX200: SPI futures have turned positive, after oscillating wildly during the overnight session. That contract is indicating a 17-point jump for the ASX200 at time of writing. Yesterday was a tepid but respectable day for Australian shares, managing to muster a 0.4 per cent gain for the day. Volume was slightly above the 100-day average and breadth was okay. Growth stocks led the charge, following US tech’s gains the night prior, with the health care sector up 1.7 per cent, courtesy of a strong bid for CSL and ResMed. The materials space was the biggest points score for the index, adding 8 to the overall index’s performance. The trend is still down for the ASX200, as it is with global equity indices presently. However, yesterday’s daily candle, combined with a bullish divergence on the RSI, suggests some buyers are re-entering the market in the short-term, potentially offering temporary upside to ~5700.
      • 0 replies
    • Trading in Asia was mixed as US shares stabilized overnight. In the meanwhile, the ongoing discussions between China and the US adds uncertainty.
      • 0 replies
    • Brexit pains - APAC brief 11 Dec
      Day 1 of 5: Monday looks like it may be one of those days where Wall Street hesitantly pulls itself up out of the dirt in the final hours of trade. There is just under two-hours to go in the US session, and at a high level, things appear not-too-bad. Let's return to America a little later. Whichever way we happen to end the first 24 hours of trade for the week, heightened risk, growth fears and bearishness is still driving sentiment. There has been no shift in market behaviour to indicate a market turnaround is upon us yet. If anything, the headlines regarding the macro-landscape added to the negativity. The data traders received was mixed; rather it was the numerous developments in the politico-economic sphere that inflamed trader's trepidation.

      The Brexit tragicomedy: The big story overnight must be Brexit. This week ought to be about the state of Europe, and at its outset, it has been. If the potential consequences weren't so dire, the situation would appear comical – akin to some absurd, but all-too real life Waiting for Godot re-boot. First-up, the European Court of Justice released a ruling that the UK could unilaterally cancel Brexit and revoke its action of Article 50. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has dutifully shut down that notion. But things did get sticky when Prime Minister May announced she would delay a vote in Parliament of her Brexit bill, on the understanding she lacked anywhere near the required votes to get it passed lawmakers.
      • 0 replies
×