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Let's do some technical on the GBPJPY


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Hi guys, 

Today my attention went on the GBPJPY where I've noticed a near miss to the major quarter 150.000 forming a triple top at the completion of a butterfly pattern.

I'm expecting to see the price to break under the 147.121 level aiming for the next major quarter 140.000. A good set-up for very patient people on this trade could be to go short at the breakout of the 147.121 support level aiming the 141.000 level for an amazing 600 pips trade ;) 

164401722_gbpjpybutterfly.thumb.png.018e0bf801ef228658e15da98bf4965e.png

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  • 4 weeks later...

While I'm waiting for my critical turn trades to work out (or not...).  I am belatedly turning my attention to a market I used to follow but rarely traded so kinda stopped analysing so I could focus.  Nevertheless I thing there is some symmetry on this pair with my preferred USDJPY.  I cannot really tell which way GBPJPY will run short term, although the prognosis near term looks like a rally.  However the one thing that jumps out on both pairs is something everyone knows but may not be keeping top of mind, the Yen is way, way too strong and has been for a long long time.  A big part of Abeneomics is to devalue the Yen to boost trade but all that has happened is consolidation, so far...

Looking at the big picture monthly charts you can see where I am going with this.  I believe the bottom has been reached and we are on for a massive rally against the Yen in due course.  This will be driven more by USD strength and so I am more confident of a USDJPY Long than on GBPJPY because GBP is surely going to get hammered vs USD as well, just maybe not as much.

If you look at the weekly GBPJPY chart you can see price has been in a nice wide channel since the infamous, still unexplained, GBP flash crash.  It looks to have turned back up recently with some positive indicators.  I can see this channel playing out as a pre rally consolidation OR a temporary breakout down to complete a retrace prior to a major rally but can't get a firm, trade-worthy, handle on it.

If I look at USDJPY however I do have a road map (see also my post on this pair).  In brief thought, USDJPY has been tracking stock moves (roughly) and I expect this to continue short term with a completion of the up-sloping channel rally and then a retrace to retest the Triangle breakout zone, maybe back to the Fib 50% (10,880 area) before the USD rally kicks in big time across the board.

  GBPJPY-Monthly_011118.thumb.png.086d34bc2b7d1a59144bbe2ec8ee8127.pngUSDJPY-Monthly_011118.thumb.png.1497b963fd5160bd1dd9445234a49fee.pngGBPJPY-Weekly_011118.thumb.png.f66ac8a4ce878dec829a4b77513bec9f.pngUSDJPY-Daily_011118.thumb.png.0480a440a082defdb7637f31aea27d68.png

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