Jump to content

Wyckoff Logic


Recommended Posts

That all looks eminently sensible @Caseynotes and roughly confirms to EWT and other similar cycle theories.  I do use the concept of an "Ice Line" when identifying a breakout from a consolidation such as the Accumulation of Distribution phase when I can't find another charting method (e.g. H&S neckline).  I particularly use an ice line off a double top/bottom, which fits the theory above well.  It would be interesting to see this on some actual markets in long term time-frames to see how well it tracks.  I suspect that the theory diagram is idealised so recognising the pattern on real market data would be open to interpretation, as everything is of course.  I would expect such real markets examples to map onto a classic EWT analysis and Charting analysis such that the the Accumulation and Distribution zones represent end of Bulls & Bears phases, which will conform to either a 1-5 motive or A-B-C retrace  (as trend channels) and depending on the time-frame each consolation phase (H&S, Triangle etc) will either be preparatory to a new major trend or a continuation of the existing overall trend.   So net, no surprise to me, this theory fits well with EWT and Trend Following rather than as an alternative.  Just a different way of saying the same thing and seeking to do the same thing, which is profit from a trend and/or trend change.

The only problem (if problem it is, maybe just health warning...) is the notion of the "logic".  While it makes sense I have often observed that the markets can at time exhibit illogical behaviour, the over-exuberance of bubbles for example, which may still conform to the pattern but in a hard to fathom and observe way.  What would this pattern look like on Bitcoin for example?  The Accumulation phase is clearly there (I called it incubation phase on my recent post) but the Distribution phase would be far from classic I imagine, hence the need for interpretation.

Link to comment

Oh completely agree @Caseynotes, that is what makes it all so interesting to me.  If several people (or the market players in general) come up with different models using different logic but all conforming to the same market movements over the long term then, to me, it means there is validity to analysing these markets using said models.  Really matters little which ones (or combinations in my case) one uses so long as one understands how they can be used in context to support a trading idea.  But of course one must back test and practice using the models/theories within a methodology for both recognising and executing a trading idea.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,231
    • Total Posts
      90,823
    • Total Members
      41,333
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    nickingo
    Joined 03/02/23 00:46
  • Posts

    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 3 February 23, Polkadot /U.S.dollar(DOTUSD) DOTUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Follow trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((1)) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave I of Motive Wave Cancel invalid level: 4.23 Polkadot /U.S.dollar(DOTUSD) Trading Strategy: The rise of the first wave in an uptrend, upon completion, the price will retrace again in the second wave, but must not retrace more than 100% of the first wave. Gives us the opportunity to join the trend again. Wait for the second wave to finish. Polkadot /U.S. dollar (DOTUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is below the MA200 indicating a downtrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line momentum are bullish. TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!   Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 3 February 23, Polkadot /U.S.dollar(DOTUSD) DOTUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Flat Position: Wave (C) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave I of Motive Wave Cancel invalid level: 4.23   Polkadot /U.S.dollar(DOTUSD)Trading Strategy: The rise of the first wave in an uptrend, upon completion, the price will retrace again in the second wave, but must not retrace more than 100% of the first wave. Gives us the opportunity to join the trend again. Wait for the second wave to finish. Polkadot /U.S.dollar(DOTUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200, indicating an uptrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line Bullish momentum.
    • US stock market is currently showing a bullish trend with several companies, such as Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT) being very bullish. Stock Market: SP500, Apple (AAPL),Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft MSFT, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B), Block, Inc (SQ), Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), Enphase (ENPH), Alphabet GOOGL. XFL Finance Sector ETF, JPMorgan JPM & Bank of America BAC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) Stock Market Summary Earnings for large tech stock creates Elliott wave three's  Elliott Wave Analysis: Lows in for the stock market as the market Impulses higher Trading Strategies:Continue to hold Long Trades Video Chapters 00:00 SP500 / RUT 07:00 Apple (AAPL) 13:30 Amazon (AMZN) 16:15 NVIDIA (NVDA) 19:38 Meta Platforms (META) 20:23 Netflix (NFLX)  23:23 Enphase (ENPH) 28:28 Tesla (TSLA) 30:52 Alphabet (GOOGL)  33:02 Microsoft (MSFT) 36:49 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) 38:40 Block Inc. (SQ)  42:59 Bank of America BAC 48:31 TRIAL Buy 1 Month Get 3 Months  Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com  
    • Look Ahead to 03/02/23: US jobs; Caixin; US ISM non-manufacturing PMI; SASY earnings After the Fed, ECB and the Bank of England all raised interest rates, traders turn their attention to the keenly watched US jobs report. We’ll get live coverage and reaction to the NFPs from IG’s Angeline Ong and Joshua Mahony. Plus, look out for ISM non-manufacturing PMI data for more hints on the health of the US economy, and earnings from French healthcare company Sanofi (SASY).   Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 02 February 2023        
×
×
  • Create New...