Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

The FT's year in review

Recommended Posts

The FT have recently posted a great article which I tried to share to friends but you needed to have subscription. Given its the last hour of work and it's quiet as hell I thought I may as well give a synopsis of the major events which have happened this year.

  • which ones do you remember?
  • which ones did you trade?
  • ...and what are the expectations for next year?

so without further a do

  1. The beginning of the year started with a solid rally in equities as Trumps reduced taxation and corporate freedom pushed markets 3% higher in January. This was the perfect set up to the crash which was inevitably looming ...
  2. Who remembers the VIX catostrophy which came on the back of Bond market damage on equities, great figures from average US earnings, and a new fear of inflationary measures by the Fed? XIV - the inverse vix - went crazy and lost a significant proportion of its value overnight. This finally collapsed in Feb on the 5th as all other institutions rushed to hedge their exposure.
  3. Cambridge Analytica was the big one in March with Facebook kicking off the FAANG draw down. This not only dented Facebook but fears over increased regulation for techies kicked the sector down a notch.
  4. Dollar has been having a weird year, especially during the first half of the year, smattered by trade war talks, April was the start of the rally. Dolar basket saw an 8% rally between April and mid-August prompting a JP analyst to comment that it was the "most notable phenomenon" of the year.
  5. Turkey melt down - A word of warning to all country leaders (especially the Turkish). Do NOT say that interest rates are ""the mother of all evil". Unless you want your whole country to experience a currency crisis.
  6. Italian bond yields went crazy in 2018 especially after late May after the two populist parties drew power via a coalition after the March elections .
  7. EM focus continued with the Argentinian emergency which was the most notable S.American event with interest rates lifted from 45 to 60% in August. Peso dropped 12% in a single day.
  8. October was bond season- and also significant losses in the S&P. Powells statement that rates were far from neutral led to increased expectations of 3 rate rises before the end of year.
  9. Oil, whilst original expected to (at least by some) go to 100 bucks was cut short after the 86 dollar mark was hit. US oil output, Iranian production, weakening demand... these all hit the industry and has resulted in a significant pull back.
  10. Finally pulling into December the crypto fall of the previous 12 months has started to see signs of life. Nothing can really dent the 80% + sell off over the last 12 months ... but some recent vol moves in late December are giving the hopeful signs of life.

there we go :) - it's now 5pm and home time for me. Merry Christmas all. Looking forward to some discussion and chat towards the end of the week.

Article for Ref: https://www.ft.com/content/5c7f9262-0364-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1
  • Thought provoking 1

Share this post


Link to post
On ‎24‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 17:44, TrendFollower said:

@cryptotrader,

Venezuela has had some serious problems in 2018. 

I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas. 

you're not wrong, but what do you mean? Was this an event you managed to trade over? I can't image there were many on ramps to this event.

Merry Christmas to you too!

Share this post


Link to post

@cryptotrader,

No it was not an event that I managed to trade over.

However, Venezuela, has been an interesting point of reference within the Cryptocurrency circles as it highlights the weaknesses of the 'Fiat Currency' system and ineffective monetary policy in relation to economic policies. Bitcoin is worth more in Venezuela than the Venezuelan Bolivar!

Share this post


Link to post

Love it thank you. Interesting to read back over all this time and remember what the year has held. 

It is also a very interesting retrospective to have as a trader. You can look back and remember your outlook from Jan 2017. Crypto’s atthose highs, markets bullish. Who would have thought the years price action would leave us where we are now?!!! 

Trade safe over this Christmas when liquidity is low and vol seems to be high! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

@PandaFace,

No problem. 

You can follow some of my live trades that I am sharing with the IG Community, not all of course!

You can follow my 'Short S&P 500' trade and 'Long Gold and Silver' trades on the various threads. These are live trades so you may find them of interest.

Share this post


Link to post

oil price chat from the FT regarding oil prices ...

"Take 2 parts trade-war worries, 1 part each of quantitative tightening and fear of a slowdown in Chinese growth. Add a dollop of credit default concern and a generous pinch of European Union chaos, seasoned with a dash of Brexit uncertainty and Italian budgetary angst. Blend and allow to simmer gently for several months."

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • IG ISA Season

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      6,391
    • Total Posts
      28,414
    • Total Members
      37,298
    Newest Member
    F_erret
    Joined 21/03/19 09:20
  • Our picks

    • APAC brief - 21 Mar
      Market action proves it again: this market hinges on the Fed: The US Fed has proven itself as the most important game in town for traders. The FOMC met this morning, and lo-and-behold: the dovish Fed has proven more dovish than previously thought; the patient Fed has proven more patient that previously thought. Interest rates have remained on hold, but everyone knew that was to be the case today. It was about the dot-plots, the neutral-rate, the economic projections, and the balance sheet run-off. On all accounts, the Fed has downgraded their views on the outlook. And boy, have markets responded. The S&P500 has proven its major-sensitivity to FOMC policy and whipsawed alongside a fall in US Treasury yields, as traders price-in rate cuts from the Fed in the future.


      The US Dollar sends some asset classes into a tizz: The US Dollar has tumbled across the board consequently, pushing gold prices higher. The Australian Dollar, even for all its current unattractiveness, has burst higher, to be trading back toward the 0.7150 mark. Commodity prices, especially those of thriving industrial metals, have also rallied courtesy of the weaker greenback. Emerging market currencies are collectively stronger, too. This is all coming because traders are more-or-less betting that the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle, and financial conditions will not be constricted by policy-maker intervention. Relatively cheap money will continue to flow, as yields remain depressed, and allow for the (sometimes wonton) risk-taking conditions that markets have grown used to in the past decade.
        • Great!
        • Like
      • 0 replies
×
×