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The FT's year in review


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The FT have recently posted a great article which I tried to share to friends but you needed to have subscription. Given its the last hour of work and it's quiet as hell I thought I may as well give a synopsis of the major events which have happened this year.

  • which ones do you remember?
  • which ones did you trade?
  • ...and what are the expectations for next year?

so without further a do

  1. The beginning of the year started with a solid rally in equities as Trumps reduced taxation and corporate freedom pushed markets 3% higher in January. This was the perfect set up to the crash which was inevitably looming ...
  2. Who remembers the VIX catostrophy which came on the back of Bond market damage on equities, great figures from average US earnings, and a new fear of inflationary measures by the Fed? XIV - the inverse vix - went crazy and lost a significant proportion of its value overnight. This finally collapsed in Feb on the 5th as all other institutions rushed to hedge their exposure.
  3. Cambridge Analytica was the big one in March with Facebook kicking off the FAANG draw down. This not only dented Facebook but fears over increased regulation for techies kicked the sector down a notch.
  4. Dollar has been having a weird year, especially during the first half of the year, smattered by trade war talks, April was the start of the rally. Dolar basket saw an 8% rally between April and mid-August prompting a JP analyst to comment that it was the "most notable phenomenon" of the year.
  5. Turkey melt down - A word of warning to all country leaders (especially the Turkish). Do NOT say that interest rates are ""the mother of all evil". Unless you want your whole country to experience a currency crisis.
  6. Italian bond yields went crazy in 2018 especially after late May after the two populist parties drew power via a coalition after the March elections .
  7. EM focus continued with the Argentinian emergency which was the most notable S.American event with interest rates lifted from 45 to 60% in August. Peso dropped 12% in a single day.
  8. October was bond season- and also significant losses in the S&P. Powells statement that rates were far from neutral led to increased expectations of 3 rate rises before the end of year.
  9. Oil, whilst original expected to (at least by some) go to 100 bucks was cut short after the 86 dollar mark was hit. US oil output, Iranian production, weakening demand... these all hit the industry and has resulted in a significant pull back.
  10. Finally pulling into December the crypto fall of the previous 12 months has started to see signs of life. Nothing can really dent the 80% + sell off over the last 12 months ... but some recent vol moves in late December are giving the hopeful signs of life.

there we go :) - it's now 5pm and home time for me. Merry Christmas all. Looking forward to some discussion and chat towards the end of the week.

Article for Ref: https://www.ft.com/content/5c7f9262-0364-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3

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On ‎24‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 17:44, TrendFollower said:

@cryptotrader,

Venezuela has had some serious problems in 2018. 

I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas. 

you're not wrong, but what do you mean? Was this an event you managed to trade over? I can't image there were many on ramps to this event.

Merry Christmas to you too!

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Guest PandaFace

Love it thank you. Interesting to read back over all this time and remember what the year has held. 

It is also a very interesting retrospective to have as a trader. You can look back and remember your outlook from Jan 2017. Crypto’s atthose highs, markets bullish. Who would have thought the years price action would leave us where we are now?!!! 

Trade safe over this Christmas when liquidity is low and vol seems to be high! 

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oil price chat from the FT regarding oil prices ...

"Take 2 parts trade-war worries, 1 part each of quantitative tightening and fear of a slowdown in Chinese growth. Add a dollop of credit default concern and a generous pinch of European Union chaos, seasoned with a dash of Brexit uncertainty and Italian budgetary angst. Blend and allow to simmer gently for several months."

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